TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will the Patriots win the AFC Championship?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,004,739
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,696,957

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,004,739 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfc85…3178backed Yes0c49,977$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe070…b903backed Yes0c45,664$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7b7…f053backed Yes0c36,616$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c30,704$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.411769.1%16 W · 160 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-43%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x714f…e8aebacked Yes0c30,211$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.6350%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e67…e04fbacked Yes0c27,002$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfda6…99b3backed Yes0c22,948$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.8440%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c18,845$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.82430.8%2 W · 241 L+1.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f24…7425backed Yes0c18,702$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cf2…acc4backed Yes0c16,106$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.32110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde9b…32e5backed Yes0c15,686$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.0620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54aa…38ccbacked Yes0c15,480$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4440%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1e6…603abacked Yes0c12,099$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.360%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0456…5149backed Yes0c10,931$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7960%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a9d…6e3ebacked Yes0c10,101$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d0b…4f4dbacked Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20342.9%1 W · 33 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-78.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes0c9,999$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201061.9%2 W · 104 L+0.5wins0.00per pick1cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e73…1b57backed Yes0c9,249$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc74e…d8c9backed Yes0c9,012$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb13f…0939backed Yes0c9,012$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb65d…e281backed Yes0c9,012$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ddc…c49dbacked Yes0c9,009$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b32…19b1backed Yes0c9,009$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa22d…e5a3backed Yes0c9,003$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f5c…74babacked Yes0c8,932$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.860%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7d3…1ad9backed Yes0c8,658$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf761…f1ffbacked Yes0c8,658$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe547…f42cbacked Yes0c8,652$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb05…6320backed Yes0c8,617$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf1d…7318backed Yes0c8,298$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4348…1872backed Yes0c8,082$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1a1…6a9fbacked Yes0c8,009$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7789…f823backed Yes1c8,000$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74238.7%2 W · 21 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-84.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a11…a90ebacked Yes0c8,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2460%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a6d…a617backed Yes0c7,929$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes1c7,530$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.21464.3%2 W · 44 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-29.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3eb5…d064backed Yes0c7,009$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1c3…c866backed Yes0c7,003$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8901…21d0backed Yes0c6,909$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7380%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89e3…e78ebacked Yes0c6,877$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.63180%0 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b14…d016backed Yes0c6,550$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57eb…f175backed Yes0c6,546$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6490%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21d6…d887backed Yes0c6,522$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe08…f08ebacked Yes0c6,503$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc924…706dbacked Yes0c6,500$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4698…6fbfbacked Yes0c5,835$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2aca…fc49backed Yes0c5,810$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0913…a8c5backed Yes0c5,712$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7228…0212backed Yes0c5,407$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfeee…59d2backed Yes0c5,241$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc48…68e4backed Yes0c5,089$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6356…1885backed Yes1c5,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256350.8%32 W · 31 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8dee…aad5backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10175.9%1 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-91.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeeb9…a974backed Yes0c4,932$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.850%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1149…f13bbacked Yes0c4,932$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.860%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b21…5a27backed Yes0c4,824$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4760%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98a9…9071backed Yes0c4,740$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14c7…94a2backed Yes0c4,740$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8ab…160ebacked Yes0c4,740$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7155…b883backed Yes0c4,740$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28a7…316ebacked Yes0c4,735$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1d9…e921backed Yes0c4,519$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5690%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0061…3cefbacked Yes0c4,510$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb66…b67bbacked Yes0c4,510$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bff…e50fbacked Yes0c4,510$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0063…5337backed Yes0c4,510$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5c0…533dbacked Yes0c4,510$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08f5…0710backed Yes0c4,510$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9378…f5dbbacked Yes0c4,510$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5345…b9e8backed Yes0c4,510$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e1e…373ebacked Yes0c4,510$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31c7…00c5backed Yes0c4,510$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x267a…6e71backed Yes0c4,510$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbc4…3df8backed Yes0c4,510$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a74…8dbcbacked Yes0c4,509$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5674…8d85backed Yes0c4,509$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d21…9dc1backed Yes0c4,509$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f29…941dbacked Yes0c4,509$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7aa1…4b41backed Yes0c4,509$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe444…f835backed Yes0c4,509$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74f1…f177backed Yes0c4,509$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbba…6c80backed Yes0c4,509$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdea1…3a33backed Yes0c4,509$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93b8…f807backed Yes0c4,509$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a44…c8dbbacked Yes0c4,509$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff81…39cebacked Yes0c4,509$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4930…c6e1backed Yes0c4,509$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1461…af31backed Yes0c4,509$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b0a…23fdbacked Yes0c4,503$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8887…2a19backed Yes0c4,503$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7332…6888backed Yes0c4,503$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72a2…6869backed Yes0c4,503$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b55…0c82backed Yes0c4,503$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x616c…fcfdbacked Yes0c4,503$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f1e…78fcbacked Yes0c4,503$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fc2…93fbbacked Yes0c4,503$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5574…0051backed Yes0c4,503$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15d9…2224backed Yes0c4,503$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53db…562cbacked Yes0c4,503$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92fe…46fdbacked Yes0c4,503$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.