TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will the Ravens win the AFC Championship?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,392,738
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,523,428

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,392,738 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 302 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1c5f…5eb7backed No78c191,000$149,653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,3473100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3eb4…5821backed No73c137,000$99,937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,063475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick75cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1d0…40adbacked No73c69,000$50,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,9751100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick73cpaid+37.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5306…2a28backed Yes28c69,000$18,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,97510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb7e…0ba8backed No73c68,000$49,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,3601100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9b6…b725backed No73c68,000$49,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,3601100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45a2…226ebacked Yes27c68,000$18,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,36010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5abc…a192backed No73c68,000$49,912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,0881100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8799…4471backed Yes27c68,000$18,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,08810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa04c…7581backed Yes23c65,000$14,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,95010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd543…b4b9backed No77c65,000$50,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,9501100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7849…e47fbacked Yes21c63,000$13,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,04110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2ce…a3ddbacked No79c63,000$49,644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,3561100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6dc…3d6ebacked Yes21c63,000$13,356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,35610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0d4…26b0backed No79c63,000$49,959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,0411100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Yes22c8,363$1,878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,878.4222434.4%77 W · 147 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-19.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd95…99f2backed Yes14c7,836$1,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,081.4115722.3%35 W · 122 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-36.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x79c4…d1c7backed Yes19c6,518$1,208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,207.65714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick33cpaid-79.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x55b4…80eabacked Yes27c5,464$1,468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,467.581014%4 W · 97 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-87.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5135…8839backed Yes13c3,438$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.331241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick30cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0fe8…2cbabacked Yes23c3,332$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$770812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+4,066.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f47…af93backed Yes14c3,003$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.365846.6%27 W · 31 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes13c2,394$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.351508%12 W · 138 L-9.7wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-74%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked Yes25c2,320$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.1128.3%1 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-79.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x562a…3d9cbacked Yes28c2,260$637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$636.913818.4%7 W · 31 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-40.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes17c1,953$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.071809.4%17 W · 163 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-59.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcece…dc07backed Yes22c1,807$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.081735.3%6 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick25cpaid-4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d4a…2215backed Yes22c1,802$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40017248.3%83 W · 89 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+41%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea3e…b956backed Yes23c1,778$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.5824351.4%125 W · 118 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fc8…39efbacked Yes26c1,548$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.414248.6%69 W · 73 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a5e…c869backed Yes25c1,525$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.6811738.5%45 W · 72 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf655…7ea4backed Yes22c1,518$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.7516226.5%43 W · 119 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-30.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdcb1…d3e3backed Yes27c1,407$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37510125.7%26 W · 75 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-25.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfebb…4008backed Yes21c1,400$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60b0…5ea2backed No79c1,397$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d79…4725backed Yes25c1,198$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.812416.7%4 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-63.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes26c1,011$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.962520%5 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-61.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked Yes20c1,000$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.961662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+10%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x14dd…13eebacked Yes2c999.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17385.3%2 W · 36 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-71.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes25c904.07$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.926832.4%22 W · 46 L+0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-33.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63bf…e319backed Yes28c816.48$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.628729.9%26 W · 61 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes14c738$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.567123.9%17 W · 54 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-32.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No74c722.46$538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.952828.6%151 W · 377 L+1.8wins0.00per pick28cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes29c692.8$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20022142.1%93 W · 128 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed No78c663.38$516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.8919638.8%76 W · 120 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04ec…580fbacked Yes22c627.85$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.5610434.6%36 W · 68 L-6.3wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-27.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x00a6…9343backed Yes16c585.26$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.721625%4 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe25c…ae63backed Yes23c558.58$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.381936.8%7 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8507…8a79backed Yes23c545.85$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1254734%16 W · 31 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+9.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6704…baa4backed Yes18c540.96$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002737%10 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7544…b545backed Yes24c502.46$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.130%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xda2f…baccbacked Yes19c500$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.51729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5308…3221backed No78c491.03$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.552744.4%12 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-30.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x60b9…184cbacked Yes24c404.17$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.88616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick39cpaid-78.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x86d0…c6ffbacked Yes26c403.43$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.2333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-37.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x542c…f12bbacked No72c400$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.919724.7%24 W · 73 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+48.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x064d…a0e4backed Yes16c399$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.642313%3 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-51.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07fd…48fbbacked Yes15c357.14$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf15…53c8backed Yes29c347.07$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-36.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No77c325.2$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.2126830.6%82 W · 186 L-29.2wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-43.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe064…cd51backed Yes25c301.57$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.7633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7421…5a95backed Yes15c295.06$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f41…83f5backed Yes17c294.59$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.3515332%49 W · 104 L-8.6wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-38.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0298…93c4backed Yes24c293.53$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.0728337.8%107 W · 176 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf22e…9a18backed No74c284$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.56560%3 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick73cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed27…6a29backed Yes17c260$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed Yes16c258.77$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.373537.1%13 W · 22 L-3.9wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-33.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x390d…350bbacked Yes20c257.81$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick10cpaid+25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb60d…52d3backed Yes27c252.13$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.55742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87e9…67c6backed Yes28c250$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.647243.1%31 W · 41 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-20.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa128…d695backed Yes20c230$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1840…6374backed No74c228.93$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.75366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x310e…948abacked Yes24c220.57$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1f0…d40abacked Yes14c220$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d2f…b802backed No77c219.1$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x781b…7c13backed Yes29c212.36$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc090…37f2backed Yes24c212.11$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a61…d677backed Yes27c211.7$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.19520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-52.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa111…e105backed Yes24c210.72$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61d1…ddccbacked Yes29c209.79$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c75…28e4backed Yes28c204.95$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4859…e322backed Yes26c203.49$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ef5…ea80backed Yes24c201.75$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-38.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68ed…ef44backed Yes24c201.72$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.9520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-2.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf186…5b68backed Yes28c201.49$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.7633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+45.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9292…2cd1backed Yes20c201.01$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402729.6%8 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed Yes16c200.77$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.339045.6%41 W · 49 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b55…02f8backed Yes11c200$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.627346.6%34 W · 39 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4b6…4980backed Yes29c195.8$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3792…3a3abacked Yes24c182.61$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f33…4059backed No72c174.45$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x882c…9903backed Yes30c168.44$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508760.9%53 W · 34 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc725…6c77backed Yes15c163.15$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8996…fbcebacked Yes15c162.34$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259732%31 W · 66 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-24%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd104…8599backed Yes26c151.38$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.85540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-15%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x600a…5a6bbacked No78c140.62$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed61…1da6backed Yes24c129.53$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+34.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9e5…d730backed Yes29c128.47$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf74…6fffbacked Yes24c126.05$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd08…0c59backed No74c124.77$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.54250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.