TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will the Chargers win the AFC Championship?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$368,882
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$474,604

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $368,882 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5b65…78a7backed Yes5c52,000$2,496 inLost-$2,49610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked Yes1c16,741$222 inLost-$221.95128.3%1 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-79.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7789…f823backed Yes4c5,038$195 inLost-$195238.7%2 W · 21 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-84.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2137…0677backed Yes3c4,072$108 inLost-$108.2720440.7%83 W · 121 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-17%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x06a2…0acbbacked Yes7c3,978$277 inLost-$277.4828433.1%94 W · 190 L-0.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+30.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55b4…80eabacked Yes5c3,382$154 inLost-$154.421014%4 W · 97 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-87.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd95…99f2backed Yes4c3,329$143 inLost-$143.415722.3%35 W · 122 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-36.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes4c2,458$104 inLost-$103.581809.4%17 W · 163 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-59.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe45e…ebb0backed Yes5c1,833$100 inLost-$1004833.3%16 W · 32 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-29.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc42e…edbdbacked Yes4c1,743$67 inLost-$66.7910937.6%41 W · 68 L+6.0wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+52%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes4c1,500$55 inLost-$54.6464.3%2 W · 44 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-29.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x735c…5630backed Yes3c1,500$50 inLost-$49.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1b5…aa6ebacked Yes3c1,173$30 inLost-$302326.1%6 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-38.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes2c1,102$22 inLost-$22.0641540.2%167 W · 248 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes4c1,096$43 inLost-$42.7352828.6%151 W · 377 L+1.8wins0.00per pick28cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed Yes5c969.41$48 inLost-$48.236913%9 W · 60 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-25.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed Yes6c628.15$40 inLost-$4019436.6%71 W · 123 L-14.8wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes3c602.89$18 inLost-$17.841508%12 W · 138 L-9.7wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-74%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed Yes3c532.16$15 inLost-$15.2325643.8%112 W · 144 L+14.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x52eb…757abacked Yes5c521.09$26 inLost-$25.911513.3%2 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-39.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcece…dc07backed Yes9c369.03$35 inLost-$351735.3%6 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick25cpaid-4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa46…3b2bbacked Yes5c329.51$16 inLost-$15.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bfc…93f7backed Yes6c300$17 inLost-$17.02633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-23.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Yes6c200.77$11 inLost-$11.3422434.4%77 W · 147 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-19.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes6c200$12 inLost-$12.26832.4%22 W · 46 L+0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-33.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked Yes6c200$12 inLost-$128428.6%24 W · 60 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-35%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4bac…02b1backed Yes5c200$10 inLost-$10.4442.3%1 W · 43 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-93.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.