TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will the Colts win the AFC Championship?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,226,415
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,600,508

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,226,415 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1b4b…01d1backed Yes0c696,528$2,090 inLost-$2,089.5820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3f2…9b2bbacked Yes0c696,528$2,090 inLost-$2,089.5820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4fc…38a8backed Yes0c668,196$2,673 inLost-$2,672.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb44…c659backed Yes0c668,196$2,673 inLost-$2,672.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffb5…d236backed Yes0c623,371$1,247 inLost-$1,246.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x307f…f157backed Yes0c608,874$1,218 inLost-$1,217.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb08…1849backed Yes0c581,640$2,327 inLost-$2,326.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc152…3d71backed Yes0c580,440$1,741 inLost-$1,741.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e7…6af4backed Yes0c580,440$1,741 inLost-$1,741.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47e1…0d84backed Yes0c567,099$2,268 inLost-$2,268.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc541…02a3backed Yes0c552,558$2,210 inLost-$2,210.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a4f…441cbacked Yes0c551,418$1,654 inLost-$1,654.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9225…b857backed Yes0c551,418$1,654 inLost-$1,654.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09e9…00dabacked Yes0c538,017$2,152 inLost-$2,152.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3101…3cdabacked Yes0c536,907$1,611 inLost-$1,610.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb436…d93bbacked Yes0c536,907$1,611 inLost-$1,610.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc068…2399backed Yes0c536,907$1,611 inLost-$1,610.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fdd…8878backed Yes0c522,396$1,567 inLost-$1,567.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8ca…6d69backed Yes0c275,443$551 inLost-$550.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x412a…8afbbacked Yes0c275,443$551 inLost-$550.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes0c36,263$100 inLost-$1001809.4%17 W · 163 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-59.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c30,485$69 inLost-$68.512430.8%2 W · 241 L+1.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7789…f823backed Yes1c11,500$155 inLost-$155.32238.7%2 W · 21 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-84.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd95…99f2backed Yes2c7,270$135 inLost-$134.915722.3%35 W · 122 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-36.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes0c6,518$24 inLost-$24.111061.9%2 W · 104 L+0.5wins0.00per pick1cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes2c5,838$94 inLost-$94.21464.3%2 W · 44 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-29.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bac…02b1backed Yes1c5,000$35 inLost-$35442.3%1 W · 43 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-93.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf655…7ea4backed Yes0c4,658$14 inLost-$14.3716226.5%43 W · 119 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-30.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x55b4…80eabacked Yes0c3,969$16 inLost-$15.511014%4 W · 97 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-87.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6356…1885backed Yes1c3,048$29 inLost-$29.216350.8%32 W · 31 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x239c…e708backed Yes1c2,630$29 inLost-$28.9320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb75…2e76backed Yes0c2,597$10 inLost-$10.3960%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes2c1,463$24 inLost-$23.7712022.5%27 W · 93 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-30%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd3f…ab35backed Yes1c1,112$11 inLost-$1120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.