NFL · resolved market
Will the Chiefs win the AFC Championship?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaabe9f46dd7a00b86bf21bdda6b142e91d2a41b15ff9f8f7802579805ac693a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,030,952
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,009,911
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,030,952 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 2,775 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x727b…d1a2backed Yes | 51c | 334,833$169,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165,531.1 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1638…339bbacked No | 57c | 53,512$30,688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,688.44 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 40c | 29,754$11,846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,908.12 | 101 | 4%4 W · 97 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Yes | 54c | 17,697$9,557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,140.83 | 142 | 48.6%69 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…ae63backed Yes | 39c | 14,941$5,887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,054.64 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 77c | 13,469$10,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,096.87 | 256 | 43.8%112 W · 144 L | +14.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Yes | 49c | 13,278$6,504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,774.56 | 246 | 52%128 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d79…4725backed No | 44c | 10,510$4,603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,603.46 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes | 42c | 10,000$4,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,800 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 44c | 7,844$3,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,421.36 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed No | 58c | 7,647$4,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,440.56 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8b…b1c8backed No | 71c | 6,248$4,431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,431.27 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed No | 50c | 6,207$3,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,119.54 | 224 | 34.4%77 W · 147 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb79…c2c6backed No | 44c | 6,090$2,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,679.52 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf15…53c8backed No | 58c | 5,166$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 35c | 5,025$1,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,255.16 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed No | 47c | 5,000$2,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,350 | 204 | 40.7%83 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe12…dfffbacked Yes | 45c | 4,991$2,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,744.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77d7…6547backed Yes | 41c | 4,948$2,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,907.14 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 36cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…93c4backed Yes | 47c | 4,392$2,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,346.22 | 283 | 37.8%107 W · 176 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 41c | 4,289$1,747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,541.9 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7ea4backed Yes | 37c | 4,022$1,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,519.65 | 162 | 26.5%43 W · 119 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd95…99f2backed Yes | 23c | 3,913$911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,002.15 | 157 | 22.3%35 W · 122 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5e…c869backed No | 57c | 3,666$2,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,078.84 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed Yes | 32c | 3,329$1,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,276.82 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Yes | 54c | 3,308$1,786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,521.53 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91b0…f0b6backed No | 58c | 3,216$1,852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,851.91 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 39c | 2,850$1,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,744.35 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked No | 45c | 2,787$1,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,254.14 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed No | 37c | 2,665$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.41 | 196 | 45.4%89 W · 107 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 40c | 2,659$1,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,601.45 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf916…9224backed Yes | 39c | 2,531$987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,543.66 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed No | 56c | 2,264$1,271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,270.74 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2214…5968backed No | 57c | 2,180$1,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,241.75 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2625…b2f8backed Yes | 55c | 2,013$1,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$905.85 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d8…e9a1backed Yes | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…538abacked Yes | 39c | 1,943$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,192.77 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +134.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63a9…f6a3backed Yes | 54c | 1,879$1,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$864.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc31…971fbacked Yes | 30c | 1,800$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,265 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71e5…50a4backed Yes | 45c | 1,750$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$962.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x421e…bc7fbacked Yes | 66c | 1,695$1,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.4 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 32c | 1,694$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,144.99 | 180 | 9.4%17 W · 163 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac29…fa88backed Yes | 41c | 1,590$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.97 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0c…935dbacked Yes | 43c | 1,582$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$901.51 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba1…2af6backed Yes | 50c | 1,540$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…d3e3backed Yes | 40c | 1,510$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$909.5 | 101 | 25.7%26 W · 75 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14dd…13eebacked No | 21c | 1,497$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.42 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc1…6fe7backed No | 70c | 1,456$1,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.07 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -94.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e0…a1afbacked Yes | 38c | 1,427$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$884.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa310…4c56backed Yes | 46c | 1,152$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.28 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ae…2a5fbacked No | 60c | 1,059$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.22 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe411…04c5backed No | 46c | 1,052$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.72 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb033…bedbbacked Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e47…4e57backed Yes | 54c | 981.69$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.58 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb10b…5102backed Yes | 36c | 957.18$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.97 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 41c | 908.84$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.23 | 88 | 18.2%16 W · 72 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x562a…3d9cbacked Yes | 40c | 865.83$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.47 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b15…e884backed Yes | 35c | 802.91$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +186.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2b…b6c5backed Yes | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30bc…2529backed No | 56c | 744.98$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.19 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x208e…dfd0backed Yes | 30c | 733.38$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.28 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +4.8wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6704…baa4backed Yes | 29c | 689.66$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.66 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 57c | 642.7$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.51 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed No | 62c | 628.41$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.32 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb50…d8b8backed No | 71c | 620.42$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…d586backed Yes | 32c | 607.45$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +216.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x542c…f12bbacked Yes | 44c | 599.99$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.99 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c8…fc4cbacked Yes | 44c | 547.52$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.61 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 79c | 538.24$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.32 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a9…522abacked Yes | 38c | 526.32$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22f0…da29backed Yes | 29c | 517.24$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d03…1154backed Yes | 30c | 516.67$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 32c | 514$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.43 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcece…dc07backed Yes | 39c | 512.82$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.82 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…2358backed No | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x128e…a35bbacked Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Yes | 67c | 490.92$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.92 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 26c | 486.54$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.75 | 150 | 8%12 W · 138 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c13…4ee6backed Yes | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…fb61backed Yes | 44c | 446.38$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 36c | 437.82$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.18 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b7…92cebacked Yes | 59c | 419.99$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.9 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 59c | 404.57$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.43 | 153 | 32%49 W · 104 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked No | 70c | 400$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f0…086fbacked Yes | 30c | 360$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b1…f402backed No | 70c | 360$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 43c | 350.86$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.06 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d56…d7eebacked Yes | 29c | 347.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.42 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f33…5ff1backed Yes | 34c | 343.83$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.83 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…a0babacked No | 58c | 339.99$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.89 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f91…0df5backed Yes | 30c | 338.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.04 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.18per pick | 39cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab8…237cbacked Yes | 32c | 336.39$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +217.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb623…c4fabacked No | 50c | 335.92$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb49…a8a3backed Yes | 26c | 327.97$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +283.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9780…7724backed Yes | 54c | 323.19$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb92…7477backed Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.58 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ae…36ddbacked Yes | 38c | 319.46$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.46 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab11…4e6dbacked Yes | 54c | 313.67$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cf…e23abacked No | 59c | 307.56$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Chiefs win the AFC Championship?this page
- Will the Bengals win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Bills win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Broncos win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Browns win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Chargers win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Colts win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Dolphins win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Jaguars win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Jets win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Patriots win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Raiders win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Ravens win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Steelers win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Texans win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Titans win the AFC Championship?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.