TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will the Chiefs win the AFC Championship?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,030,952
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,009,911

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,030,952 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,775 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x727b…d1a2backed Yes51c334,833$169,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165,531.12711.1%3 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-76.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1638…339bbacked No57c53,512$30,688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,688.447041.4%29 W · 41 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55b4…80eabacked Yes40c29,754$11,846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,908.121014%4 W · 97 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-87.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fc8…39efbacked Yes54c17,697$9,557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,140.8314248.6%69 W · 73 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe25c…ae63backed Yes39c14,941$5,887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,054.641936.8%7 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed Yes77c13,469$10,373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,096.8725643.8%112 W · 144 L+14.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Yes49c13,278$6,504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,774.5624652%128 W · 118 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d79…4725backed No44c10,510$4,603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,603.462416.7%4 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-63.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes42c10,000$4,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,8001656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+46.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ee2…46e1backed No44c7,844$3,421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,421.362520%5 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-61.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a1e…86d3backed No58c7,647$4,441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,440.5613450%67 W · 67 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a8b…b1c8backed No71c6,248$4,431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,431.2714445.8%66 W · 78 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed No50c6,207$3,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,119.5422434.4%77 W · 147 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-19.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb79…c2c6backed No44c6,090$2,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,679.529645.8%44 W · 52 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf15…53c8backed No58c5,166$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0001631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-36.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes35c5,025$1,769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,255.166832.4%22 W · 46 L+0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-33.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2137…0677backed No47c5,000$2,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,35020440.7%83 W · 121 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-17%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe12…dfffbacked Yes45c4,991$2,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,744.982100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+75.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77d7…6547backed Yes41c4,948$2,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,907.141154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick36cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0298…93c4backed Yes47c4,392$2,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,346.2228337.8%107 W · 176 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked Yes41c4,289$1,747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,541.9128.3%1 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-79.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf655…7ea4backed Yes37c4,022$1,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,519.6516226.5%43 W · 119 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-30.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfd95…99f2backed Yes23c3,913$911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,002.1515722.3%35 W · 122 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-36.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a5e…c869backed No57c3,666$2,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,078.8411738.5%45 W · 72 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed Yes32c3,329$1,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,276.829045.6%41 W · 49 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Yes54c3,308$1,786 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,521.5334349.3%169 W · 174 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91b0…f0b6backed No58c3,216$1,852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,851.912250%11 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Yes39c2,850$1,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,744.3519638.8%76 W · 120 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12d6…dbbcbacked No45c2,787$1,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,254.142133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed No37c2,665$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.4119645.4%89 W · 107 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes40c2,659$1,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,601.457123.9%17 W · 54 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-32.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf916…9224backed Yes39c2,531$987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,543.661936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea3e…b956backed No56c2,264$1,271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,270.7424351.4%125 W · 118 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2214…5968backed No57c2,180$1,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,241.753844.7%17 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2625…b2f8backed Yes55c2,013$1,107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$905.851127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-57%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5d8…e9a1backed Yes25c2,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5001637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes55c2,000$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9005530.9%17 W · 38 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-46.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x732f…538abacked Yes39c1,943$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,192.77837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+134.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x63a9…f6a3backed Yes54c1,879$1,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$864.21366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc31…971fbacked Yes30c1,800$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,26514750.3%74 W · 73 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x71e5…50a4backed Yes45c1,750$788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$962.51030%3 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick21cpaid+48.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x421e…bc7fbacked Yes66c1,695$1,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571.4825%2 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-59.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes32c1,694$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,144.991809.4%17 W · 163 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-59.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xac29…fa88backed Yes41c1,590$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$939.9728659.4%170 W · 116 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b0c…935dbacked Yes43c1,582$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901.513141.9%13 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-34.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ba1…2af6backed Yes50c1,540$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$770.12520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-60%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcb1…d3e3backed Yes40c1,510$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$909.510125.7%26 W · 75 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-25.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x14dd…13eebacked No21c1,497$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.42385.3%2 W · 36 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-71.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bc1…6fe7backed No70c1,456$1,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.07333%1 W · 32 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick8cpaid-94.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4e0…a1afbacked Yes38c1,427$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$884.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa310…4c56backed Yes46c1,152$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$623.283938.5%15 W · 24 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+12.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc2ae…2a5fbacked No60c1,059$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.223745.9%17 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick51cpaid+3.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe411…04c5backed No46c1,052$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.723030%9 W · 21 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick36cpaid+81.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb033…bedbbacked Yes30c1,000$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7003043.3%13 W · 17 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-24.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8e47…4e57backed Yes54c981.69$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.58580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+30.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb10b…5102backed Yes36c957.18$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.971947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes41c908.84$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.238818.2%16 W · 72 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-42.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x562a…3d9cbacked Yes40c865.83$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.473818.4%7 W · 31 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-40.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b15…e884backed Yes35c802.91$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+186.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e2b…b6c5backed Yes50c800$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30bc…2529backed No56c744.98$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.191838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x208e…dfd0backed Yes30c733.38$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.282369.6%16 W · 7 L+4.8wins+0.21per pick49cpaid+36.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6704…baa4backed Yes29c689.66$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.662737%10 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No57c642.7$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.5152828.6%151 W · 377 L+1.8wins0.00per pick28cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed No62c628.41$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.327241.7%30 W · 42 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb50…d8b8backed No71c620.42$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e29…d586backed Yes32c607.45$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+216.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x542c…f12bbacked Yes44c599.99$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.999724.7%24 W · 73 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+48.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8c8…fc4cbacked Yes44c547.52$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.614339.5%17 W · 26 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-27.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x182b…f022backed No79c538.24$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.3210246.1%47 W · 55 L+8.8wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+14.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa9a9…522abacked Yes38c526.32$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.32333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick18cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22f0…da29backed Yes29c517.24$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.24425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-13.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d03…1154backed Yes30c516.67$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No32c514$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.4348847.5%232 W · 256 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcece…dc07backed Yes39c512.82$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.821735.3%6 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick25cpaid-4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc2e…2358backed No52c500$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2603148.4%15 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x128e…a35bbacked Yes30c500$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3502619.2%5 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-27.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0af8…9454backed Yes67c490.92$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.928248.8%40 W · 42 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No26c486.54$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.751508%12 W · 138 L-9.7wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-74%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3c13…4ee6backed Yes43c465.12$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.12450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1361…fb61backed Yes44c446.38$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.34425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-43.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes36c437.82$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.1826830.6%82 W · 186 L-29.2wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-43.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe7b7…92cebacked Yes59c419.99$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.91136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-37.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f41…83f5backed No59c404.57$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.4315332%49 W · 104 L-8.6wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-38.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked No70c400$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2808428.6%24 W · 60 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-35%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x46f0…086fbacked Yes30c360$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2521100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x36b1…f402backed No70c360$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked No43c350.86$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.0639754.4%216 W · 181 L+26.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+13.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6d56…d7eebacked Yes29c347.42$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.42520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-30.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f33…5ff1backed Yes34c343.83$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.831947.4%9 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick36cpaid0%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbe89…a0babacked No58c339.99$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.89757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f91…0df5backed Yes30c338.04$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.042420.8%5 W · 19 L-4.4wins-0.18per pick39cpaid-59.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7ab8…237cbacked Yes32c336.39$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+217.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb623…c4fabacked No50c335.92$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.0220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb49…a8a3backed Yes26c327.97$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+283.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9780…7724backed Yes54c323.19$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.162100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb92…7477backed Yes31c322.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.58862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4ae…36ddbacked Yes38c319.46$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.461030%3 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab11…4e6dbacked Yes54c313.67$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.82333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-38.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0cf…e23abacked No59c307.56$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.9320%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.