Token Launches · resolved market
$PENGU market cap (FDV) $4-6b one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39689d8b174ad92e8cda845b51453a303d7e1f0d74aa02a680a4a92fb93ad7be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $96,843
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,843 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x15af…e753backed No | 68c | 10,000$6,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,200 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf488…6f2bbacked Yes | 32c | 7,000$2,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,240 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 4c | 5,417$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.9 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Yes | 1c | 3,200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76c9…9eb3backed Yes | 32c | 3,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 2c | 2,547$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.05 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +272.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f24…f47bbacked Yes | 6c | 2,137$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 18c | 1,943$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.85 | 57 | 5.3%3 W · 54 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea0a…8340backed Yes | 26c | 1,691$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 1,333$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.23 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00a9…36bbbacked Yes | 8c | 1,287$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.75 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae61…4e32backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f87…d382backed Yes | 36c | 701.25$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…0220backed Yes | 4c | 646.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…3da7backed Yes | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf04…ad65backed Yes | 5c | 550$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3b…cb6ebacked Yes | 9c | 539.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0d…fec9backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 17cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77cf…0e71backed Yes | 14c | 499.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3f…bbafbacked No | 64c | 445$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed Yes | 10c | 436.59$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.82 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa84b…5055backed Yes | 35c | 346.83$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -48%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 23c | 300$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd013…94eabacked Yes | 35c | 289.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc483…2fe7backed Yes | 18c | 284.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…c206backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +1,150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 209.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x153b…68ddbacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…5907backed Yes | 18c | 199.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a14…3c37backed Yes | 25c | 189.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad01…53e4backed Yes | 7c | 181.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb77…4e6bbacked Yes | 9c | 162.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…4be1backed No | 63c | 159.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…a643backed Yes | 35c | 155.25$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc497…767abacked Yes | 15c | 120.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8443…9510backed Yes | 10c | 103.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb02a…b26bbacked Yes | 34c | 102.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…b28cbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3549…4dafbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 20c | 95.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | -14.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8904…80a3backed No | 74c | 91.02$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6374…847cbacked Yes | 34c | 80.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +86%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 34c | 70.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c55…bc14backed Yes | 38c | 69.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe32c…0c09backed Yes | 22c | 69.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…5460backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 83 | 38.6%32 W · 51 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc986…28d8backed No | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86f0…f232backed Yes | 26c | 51.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…e4babacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe03b…b53ebacked Yes | 39c | 47.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…9b91backed No | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…c737backed Yes | 37c | 44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 42.47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 212 | 40.6%86 W · 126 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…050dbacked No | 62c | 41.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf9…21f6backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1135…964fbacked No | 62c | 28.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb18b…22d3backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 61c | 21.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd1…43c2backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…85a6backed No | 70c | 17.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfee…9219backed No | 61c | 16.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- $PENGU market cap (FDV) $4-6b one day after launch?this page
- $PENGU market cap (FDV) $1-2b one day after launch?No won
- $PENGU market cap (FDV) $2-4b one day after launch?Yes won
- $PENGU market cap (FDV) $6-8b one day after launch?No won
- $PENGU market cap (FDV) $8-10b one day after launch?No won
- $PENGU market cap (FDV) <$1b one day after launch?No won
- $PENGU market cap (FDV) >$10b one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.