Token Launches · resolved market
$PENGU market cap (FDV) <$1b one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6dab006adcf28d0f7ba4cbac4fbe95b8a139761453ec12cca698eecb8dd12ba1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $87,345
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,077
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,345 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 1c | 17,650$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.45 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 3c | 9,093$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.74 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +272.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb38d…22eebacked Yes | 43c | 4,734$2,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,041 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97d2…e372backed Yes | 6c | 3,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +97.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd170…ef28backed Yes | 5c | 2,776$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda1e…1010backed Yes | 3c | 2,594$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Yes | 1c | 1,722$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a9…48b9backed No | 37c | 1,532$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$965.43 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.44per pick | 23cpaid | +424.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc2eb…cd8dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,310$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 9c | 1,257$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.64 | 57 | 5.3%3 W · 54 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5706…44acbacked Yes | 3c | 1,240$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 2cpaid | +604.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 2c | 1,217$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +11.1wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…0220backed Yes | 3c | 1,200$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 42c | 1,076$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.99 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b4…5aabbacked Yes | 3c | 1,006$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 4c | 999$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13ef…dc31backed Yes | 2c | 989.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd013…94eabacked Yes | 6c | 814.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 4c | 814.64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde66…6981backed Yes | 13c | 793.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…b75dbacked Yes | 14c | 700.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb77…4e6bbacked Yes | 5c | 684.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8a…67d7backed Yes | 7c | 589.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8d…a5b6backed Yes | 4c | 540.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad08…a238backed Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -69%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 12c | 476$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 212 | 40.6%86 W · 126 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 437.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2653…d0f4backed Yes | 5c | 386.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 2cpaid | +2,410.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 12c | 313.21$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.41 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1c…39b4backed Yes | 3c | 302.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 6c | 262$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad01…53e4backed Yes | 5c | 257.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…aa02backed Yes | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 10c | 175$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…3da7backed Yes | 13c | 154$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe32c…0c09backed Yes | 14c | 150.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d6…24aabacked Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c97…6a72backed Yes | 9c | 121.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- $PENGU market cap (FDV) <$1b one day after launch?this page
- $PENGU market cap (FDV) $1-2b one day after launch?No won
- $PENGU market cap (FDV) $2-4b one day after launch?Yes won
- $PENGU market cap (FDV) $4-6b one day after launch?No won
- $PENGU market cap (FDV) $6-8b one day after launch?No won
- $PENGU market cap (FDV) $8-10b one day after launch?No won
- $PENGU market cap (FDV) >$10b one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.