Token Launches · resolved market
$PENGU market cap (FDV) $2-4b one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a88ec82865be0ccab8839d61774b60790972a551c1ac187949f7bbac693b42e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $92,445
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $102,618
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,445 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 17c | 15,362$2,546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,546.37 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked No | 6c | 6,226$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.36 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00a9…36bbbacked Yes | 60c | 5,001$3,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,995.69 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…fe58backed Yes | 75c | 4,095$3,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,034.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa84b…5055backed Yes | 64c | 3,769$2,415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,354.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -48%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 22c | 2,460$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.58 | 57 | 5.3%3 W · 54 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcac2…d644backed Yes | 72c | 1,745$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…be78backed Yes | 55c | 1,656$905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.96 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x699d…4260backed No | 10c | 1,008$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97d2…e372backed No | 39c | 999.99$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +97.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd170…ef28backed No | 37c | 917.93$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.57 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213c…0facbacked Yes | 60c | 834.17$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +2,719.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc497…767abacked Yes | 65c | 734.83$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.47 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…5907backed Yes | 56c | 725.75$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd239…0230backed Yes | 72c | 687.44$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.44 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1846…e81fbacked Yes | 30c | 648.9$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…7f75backed Yes | 62c | 600.9$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd72…c1a3backed Yes | 69c | 596.56$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bad…74a7backed Yes | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 41c | 490.91$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.75 | 212 | 40.6%86 W · 126 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed No | 19c | 419.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.89 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd316…bca3backed Yes | 75c | 398.31$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 44c | 364.81$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.21 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 37c | 333$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.21 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacd9…3d87backed Yes | 20c | 317$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.93 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.26per pick | 28cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed No | 17c | 275.25$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.56 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…a643backed Yes | 24c | 230$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 76c | 217.24$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.42 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77cf…0e71backed Yes | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8d…a5b6backed Yes | 58c | 197.2$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xded2…abc3backed Yes | 74c | 192.18$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…0b6dbacked Yes | 60c | 175.58$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x620b…c1e6backed Yes | 79c | 165.5$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd91f…b7fabacked Yes | 23c | 147.49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…e2d3backed Yes | 73c | 145.03$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf007…10b4backed No | 77c | 138.08$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6d…1d51backed Yes | 75c | 136.96$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe32c…0c09backed Yes | 41c | 136.51$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.51 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…5788backed No | 46c | 120$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed Yes | 71c | 111$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.19 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf82…5236backed No | 24c | 110.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa295…6993backed No | 35c | 110.25$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 57c | 109.49$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.62 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | -14.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8841…e712backed Yes | 66c | 107.03$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb2…3e05backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31c0…8d4fbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +85.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f21…5ddabacked Yes | 25c | 98.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7880…20dcbacked Yes | 75c | 97.43$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 26c | 90$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.6 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.17per pick | 28cpaid | +281.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad01…53e4backed Yes | 78c | 87.56$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ef…c2f3backed No | 37c | 81.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa553…f618backed Yes | 75c | 81.23$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5f…5c85backed Yes | 74c | 81.03$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.03 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6307…fb7cbacked Yes | 34c | 81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f79…f486backed Yes | 69c | 72.35$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3f…bbafbacked No | 62c | 70$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ec…a957backed Yes | 47c | 69.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +114%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc371…f85dbacked Yes | 76c | 66.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -56%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b5…cc36backed Yes | 75c | 64.94$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab17…d077backed Yes | 74c | 63.96$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf9…21f6backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64fd…1ea5backed No | 31c | 57.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1572…d2d8backed No | 33c | 55.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93aa…74eebacked Yes | 60c | 55.69$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b3…0cd4backed Yes | 39c | 50.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe5…66c2backed Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x404a…575dbacked Yes | 40c | 49.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea23…025cbacked Yes | 74c | 41.86$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked No | 26c | 39.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd65f…c7cebacked Yes | 73c | 39.92$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229f…43a8backed Yes | 52c | 35.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c4…f21fbacked Yes | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed Yes | 32c | 33.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…5d34backed Yes | 63c | 29.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4600…4352backed Yes | 72c | 29.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 58c | 27.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +11.1wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x50b7…0df1backed No | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x343d…8231backed Yes | 52c | 27.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +435.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 50c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b4…5aabbacked Yes | 65c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 74c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf979…e03dbacked Yes | 75c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51a0…2010backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94e8…a4a0backed Yes | 73c | 19.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x454f…f625backed Yes | 75c | 14.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- $PENGU market cap (FDV) $2-4b one day after launch?this page
- $PENGU market cap (FDV) $1-2b one day after launch?No won
- $PENGU market cap (FDV) $4-6b one day after launch?No won
- $PENGU market cap (FDV) $6-8b one day after launch?No won
- $PENGU market cap (FDV) $8-10b one day after launch?No won
- $PENGU market cap (FDV) <$1b one day after launch?No won
- $PENGU market cap (FDV) >$10b one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.