Token Launches · resolved market
$PENGU market cap (FDV) $1-2b one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x673bd5044033f3cdb77ed823ce2af1a69fb9f6b665919fa79969033600ba8ddc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $110,161
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $98,502
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $110,161 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7658…f062backed Yes | 22c | 17,959$3,951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,951.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6f…6c21backed No | 78c | 12,000$9,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,640 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 5c | 6,146$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.43 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f6…cbddbacked No | 78c | 6,000$4,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,320 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6b…12e7backed Yes | 2c | 5,451$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 1c | 4,431$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.51 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +272.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06b…4faebacked Yes | 15c | 3,029$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.45 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +272.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd170…ef28backed Yes | 26c | 2,948$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 16c | 2,860$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.17 | 57 | 5.3%3 W · 54 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97d2…e372backed Yes | 16c | 2,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +97.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213c…0facbacked Yes | 31c | 1,896$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +2,719.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d6…8a40backed Yes | 21c | 1,725$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8d…a5b6backed Yes | 6c | 1,545$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17a…1db3backed Yes | 22c | 1,335$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc10f…503cbacked No | 60c | 1,300$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94e8…a4a0backed Yes | 1c | 1,163$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…0220backed Yes | 23c | 935.95$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.66 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad08…a238backed Yes | 10c | 900$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -69%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1e…e1eabacked Yes | 15c | 676.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f24…f47bbacked Yes | 14c | 600$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xded2…abc3backed No | 76c | 568.96$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6147…f8dcbacked Yes | 3c | 518.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…5d34backed No | 71c | 513.55$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.93 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…fe58backed Yes | 24c | 509.98$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb38d…22eebacked Yes | 20c | 494.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 70c | 387.58$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.27 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde66…6981backed Yes | 27c | 371.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda1e…1010backed Yes | 30c | 360.38$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…3da7backed Yes | 14c | 357$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x277b…c68dbacked Yes | 7c | 305.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0537…5b0fbacked Yes | 7c | 303.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed Yes | 6c | 284.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 17c | 272$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.48 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +11.1wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe32c…0c09backed Yes | 16c | 262.88$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.66 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd9…2b92backed Yes | 15c | 258.67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd8…379fbacked Yes | 9c | 255.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 15c | 220$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.36 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 27c | 203.43$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.46 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…c206backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +1,150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x404a…575dbacked Yes | 18c | 196.54$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…4be1backed Yes | 14c | 196$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed Yes | 15c | 188.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 33c | 187.76$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.94 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8a…67d7backed Yes | 30c | 164.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf463…a274backed Yes | 13c | 159.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 8cpaid | +239.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…300dbacked Yes | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x911f…ebaebacked Yes | 12c | 126.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d6…24aabacked Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34ac…6e16backed Yes | 30c | 117.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x620b…c1e6backed Yes | 14c | 107.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…c6e5backed Yes | 14c | 106.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x834b…a37ebacked Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd435…b8bdbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac99…1380backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f21…5ddabacked Yes | 12c | 97.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd69…b4babacked Yes | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +626.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x800b…9fd2backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…24c3backed Yes | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…e42abacked No | 70c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1572…d2d8backed Yes | 17c | 63.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 25cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4600…4352backed Yes | 32c | 57.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad01…53e4backed Yes | 22c | 56.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff5…ce78backed Yes | 34c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c4…f21fbacked Yes | 21c | 48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x830b…3df8backed No | 78c | 40.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce3…420bbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad47…5a02backed Yes | 34c | 38.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d3…2cb6backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 74cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3f…bbafbacked No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- $PENGU market cap (FDV) $1-2b one day after launch?this page
- $PENGU market cap (FDV) $2-4b one day after launch?Yes won
- $PENGU market cap (FDV) $4-6b one day after launch?No won
- $PENGU market cap (FDV) $6-8b one day after launch?No won
- $PENGU market cap (FDV) $8-10b one day after launch?No won
- $PENGU market cap (FDV) <$1b one day after launch?No won
- $PENGU market cap (FDV) >$10b one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.