TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Champions League · resolved market

Will RB Leipzig win the UEFA Champions League?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,038,511
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,790,974

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,038,511 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Champions League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4c9a…b2c6backed Yes0c731,478$1,993 inLost-$1,992.66244.2%1 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick0cpaid+38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48e7…d5f8backed Yes0c400,000$600 inLost-$600110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x980e…7e06backed Yes0c289,569$1,158 inLost-$1,158.28484.2%2 W · 46 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+54.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bba…9b86backed Yes0c186,566$746 inLost-$746.26240%0 W · 24 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xada5…a69ebacked Yes1c151,000$755 inLost-$755280%0 W · 28 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c109,999$430 inLost-$43012921.7%28 W · 101 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-21.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1756…f499backed Yes1c84,028$420 inLost-$420.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb89d…a7d7backed Yes1c76,932$385 inLost-$384.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce54…5581backed Yes1c76,828$384 inLost-$384.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfee8…85a6backed Yes1c72,484$362 inLost-$362.42137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick1cpaid+355.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa65…6779backed Yes1c58,423$292 inLost-$292.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0d5…47abbacked Yes1c58,423$292 inLost-$292.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e73…2942backed Yes1c57,499$287 inLost-$287.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73d3…0515backed Yes1c57,164$286 inLost-$285.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7f9…97e4backed Yes1c57,131$286 inLost-$285.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes1c50,655$284 inLost-$284.3111916.8%20 W · 99 L-0.3wins0.00per pick17cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1efd…1106backed Yes1c36,200$181 inLost-$181714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick1cpaid+847.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac33…4fa6backed Yes1c32,164$161 inLost-$160.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb483…c999backed Yes1c30,179$181 inLost-$181.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x463e…664ebacked Yes0c27,786$89 inLost-$88.93190%0 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7768…495cbacked Yes1c20,000$100 inLost-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c13,978$62 inLost-$61.96422.4%1 W · 41 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick0cpaid+138.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabd8…787cbacked Yes0c10,001$40 inLost-$40.01273.7%1 W · 26 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+95.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bac…02b1backed Yes0c10,000$40 inLost-$40293.4%1 W · 28 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+102%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost-$10812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-68.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85d3…21a0backed Yes1c8,784$68 inLost-$68.0820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc94…912cbacked Yes1c5,000$25 inLost-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba9c…3737backed Yes1c5,000$25 inLost-$2530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a1d…49c6backed Yes0c3,797$11 inLost-$11.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a78…4d4ebacked Yes1c3,096$20 inLost-$2070%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf750…f162backed Yes1c2,899$16 inLost-$15.620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x450e…b52fbacked Yes1c2,413$20 inLost-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf53a…75afbacked Yes1c2,356$14 inLost-$14.1320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb47e…c5b0backed Yes1c2,292$14 inLost-$13.7520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fde…8542backed Yes1c2,287$16 inLost-$16.0140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd333…700ebacked Yes1c2,123$15 inLost-$14.9620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf764…26e9backed Yes1c2,100$11 inLost-$10.560%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0de…446bbacked Yes1c2,000$16 inLost-$1620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x279c…7ca2backed Yes1c1,951$14 inLost-$13.6520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa52e…0bfabacked Yes1c1,892$13 inLost-$13.2420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x955c…83c0backed Yes1c1,892$13 inLost-$13.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa130…ca24backed Yes1c1,588$11 inLost-$11.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ad0…2099backed Yes1c1,500$11 inLost-$10.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd568…ba70backed Yes1c1,494$13 inLost-$12.69229.1%2 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+32.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.