Us Politics · resolved market
Will the Government shutdown end by October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a15d5e3c9e2a02620894e0d5174c73c734220a439ee93f41f87b3ef01ba413b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $291,889
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $273,697
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $291,889 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 237 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 16c | 18,951$3,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,042.42 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17ce…beecbacked No | 65c | 9,899$6,414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,485.74 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4648…5361backed Yes | 34c | 7,345$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked No | 80c | 5,741$4,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,171.13 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 78c | 5,605$4,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,234.54 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c8…14e3backed Yes | 0c | 5,348$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe14f…c1a0backed Yes | 2c | 4,935$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.81 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +36%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…ef69backed Yes | 5c | 4,213$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.03 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 3,169$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 93 | 1.1%1 W · 92 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -94.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 0c | 3,050$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 80 | 15%12 W · 68 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x699e…55bcbacked Yes | 7c | 2,950$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b41…82b7backed Yes | 12c | 2,782$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.71 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,721$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.26 | 100 | 7%7 W · 93 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 4c | 2,582$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.41 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 24c | 2,278$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.03 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 14c | 2,262$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.07 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 23c | 2,176$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.37 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 72c | 2,051$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.5 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb4…b811backed Yes | 18c | 2,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc93a…8b69backed Yes | 7c | 1,786$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f71…1016backed Yes | 18c | 1,584$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.85 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67b8…2449backed Yes | 35c | 1,446$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,408$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 14c | 1,393$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.18 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 19c | 1,358$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.02 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5778…7269backed Yes | 16c | 1,329$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf38…0912backed Yes | 38c | 1,316$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47f…d792backed No | 80c | 1,257$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.73 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b73…4766backed Yes | 8c | 1,256$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b07…14fabacked No | 80c | 1,250$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 22c | 1,229$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.95 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3a…e41fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,135$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c72…9b30backed Yes | 21c | 1,062$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed No | 75c | 999.99$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed No | 73c | 972.56$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.84 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f0…57b6backed Yes | 7c | 928.53$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.32 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22bd…ad18backed Yes | 23c | 853.01$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +197.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…a44bbacked Yes | 2c | 847.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 15cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…6a23backed Yes | 24c | 847.49$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63a8…3d5ebacked Yes | 28c | 842.29$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbab6…50a2backed Yes | 45c | 835.17$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.33 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64f6…e40cbacked Yes | 25c | 800$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7db3…77ccbacked Yes | 7c | 750$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5358…5243backed No | 74c | 734.41$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.87 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +1,019.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f4…29c3backed Yes | 11c | 723.72$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda3…bdbebacked Yes | 21c | 714.29$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b70…6e9fbacked Yes | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 12c | 700$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 187 | 25.1%47 W · 140 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c63…4f83backed Yes | 29c | 692.2$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 4c | 669.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 26c | 655.03$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.76 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd036…ff2ebacked Yes | 6c | 630.76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb28c…be33backed Yes | 19c | 619.97$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.39 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6917…84d2backed No | 79c | 610.9$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…b07ebacked Yes | 30c | 606.41$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.51 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 10c | 599.98$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 152 | 27.6%42 W · 110 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf4…952ebacked Yes | 36c | 576.67$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dee…b7c6backed Yes | 7c | 571.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb195…6f85backed Yes | 35c | 571.43$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Yes | 18c | 561.53$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.84 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12ef…83c4backed Yes | 22c | 545.89$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8355…19afbacked Yes | 22c | 545.45$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc66b…98a5backed Yes | 9c | 538.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…aee5backed Yes | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8296…4d09backed Yes | 21c | 483.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x472b…d2f4backed No | 79c | 456.04$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1f…81e6backed Yes | 19c | 444$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x038f…4535backed Yes | 3c | 440$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d0…4032backed Yes | 9c | 433.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac9e…6be1backed No | 77c | 433.03$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa45a…a03ebacked No | 79c | 420.8$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.41 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50df…1f07backed Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70d7…2511backed Yes | 10c | 412.67$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…2995backed Yes | 26c | 412$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc00d…b3a0backed Yes | 33c | 409.18$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.03 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…0788backed Yes | 7c | 400$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff30…4a37backed No | 71c | 400$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 42c | 400$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacf7…4641backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 78c | 399.98$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.99 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0aee…54f4backed Yes | 38c | 395.29$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2dc…3f6abacked Yes | 29c | 390$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57dd…6ab4backed Yes | 46c | 379.11$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd980…5be0backed Yes | 8c | 375$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8c…196abacked Yes | 7c | 371.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 70c | 359.93$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.3 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa3…16e5backed Yes | 29c | 354.29$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.84 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x111e…f237backed Yes | 7c | 352.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc7…e411backed Yes | 9c | 349.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e76…3372backed Yes | 24c | 348$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbef8…6c0fbacked Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f81…5394backed Yes | 9c | 333.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc358…2ac9backed Yes | 24c | 328.12$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 5c | 318.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 126 | 31.7%40 W · 86 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 14c | 312.19$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 84 | 19%16 W · 68 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 17c | 311.6$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.3 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 18c | 300$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…0f0ebacked Yes | 9c | 300$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59cd…716fbacked No | 78c | 300$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 16c | 299.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Government shutdown end by October 31?this page
- Will the Government shutdown end by December 31?Yes won
- Will the Government shutdown end by January 31?Yes won
- Will the Government shutdown end by November 15?Yes won
- Will the Government shutdown end by November 30?Yes won
- Will the Government shutdown end by November 7?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end by October 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.