Us Politics · resolved market
Will the Government shutdown end by November 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8195ceb3ab6fd94b2adf05993501a4ec9a95dd5eca2590ebf9dacbe200608718
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,131,241
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,138,622
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,131,241 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 440 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb43…6221backed No | 1c | 167,418$1,489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,489 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5caf…5470backed No | 0c | 157,211$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.4 | 33 | 6.1%2 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -91.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd46e…904abacked No | 1c | 152,420$1,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,037.57 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef2…f473backed No | 3c | 102,225$3,538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,538.27 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08bd…9ad0backed No | 11c | 87,548$9,527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,526.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77a4…c84fbacked No | 9c | 86,212$7,849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,849.11 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…dfb6backed No | 10c | 66,155$6,679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,678.6 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce66…cc64backed No | 6c | 65,153$3,767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,766.64 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -59%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed No | 7c | 58,088$4,278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,277.88 | 192 | 36.5%70 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No | 8c | 52,416$4,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,206.66 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x434a…5218backed No | 5c | 45,134$2,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,285.14 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…c66cbacked No | 7c | 42,101$3,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,134.76 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ae…48bfbacked No | 1c | 38,102$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e50…2a28backed No | 1c | 38,081$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.64 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x063a…1b35backed No | 1c | 30,229$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa40a…0615backed No | 0c | 28,502$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…f2cbbacked No | 5c | 27,495$1,478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,478.12 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39f2…146ebacked No | 5c | 27,052$1,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,325.43 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd923…f400backed No | 8c | 24,220$1,865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,865.13 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 0c | 22,734$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…e344backed No | 1c | 22,144$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…4248backed No | 12c | 20,752$2,572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,571.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x855d…349fbacked No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dda…e56abacked No | 1c | 19,733$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 0c | 19,499$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.44 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9256…2e8bbacked No | 2c | 18,514$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed No | 19c | 18,101$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 5c | 18,000$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945.01 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 11c | 17,463$1,891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,891.32 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 9c | 17,336$1,635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,634.92 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 6c | 14,240$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.86 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…1601backed No | 4c | 13,998$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.48 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 1c | 13,100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd712…228dbacked No | 0c | 13,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa761…46c1backed No | 0c | 12,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc626…2beabacked No | 13c | 11,912$1,607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,606.66 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 11,555$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.89 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…340cbacked No | 9c | 11,504$1,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071.71 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…e288backed No | 2c | 10,793$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.55 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +48%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8d…ed86backed No | 8c | 10,100$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 2c | 10,019$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.96 | 110 | 10%11 W · 99 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…ddaabacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…20a6backed No | 1c | 10,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09d6…0fdabacked No | 15c | 10,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.98 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f3…0545backed No | 1c | 9,883$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.06 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58cf…2a11backed No | 1c | 9,675$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9762…f66cbacked No | 14c | 9,486$1,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,299.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f61…bb12backed No | 3c | 9,267$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.17 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68cd…542bbacked No | 12c | 8,650$1,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,038 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3651…df82backed No | 1c | 8,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed No | 1c | 7,995$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.25 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7416…06f8backed No | 1c | 7,956$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fd…6cc0backed No | 10c | 7,436$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 1c | 7,324$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.24 | 129 | 10.9%14 W · 115 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb59b…a8e0backed No | 14c | 7,310$992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$992.28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 6c | 7,178$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.04 | 141 | 25.5%36 W · 105 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdec3…ebc5backed No | 1c | 6,908$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…de77backed No | 14c | 6,703$943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$943.03 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x387d…67e6backed No | 4c | 6,648$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…ef69backed No | 11c | 6,477$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.77 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a06…41c9backed No | 1c | 6,200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked No | 6c | 6,000$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c86…c4f6backed No | 9c | 6,000$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b78…2637backed No | 1c | 5,977$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.81 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…4288backed No | 3c | 5,712$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.34 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…05e7backed No | 1c | 5,185$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.07 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +180.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x104f…6b02backed No | 10c | 5,145$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80c5…65d1backed No | 11c | 5,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad87…6a86backed No | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef67…2a33backed No | 0c | 4,716$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 16c | 4,653$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.09 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7a…d37ebacked No | 1c | 4,650$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 17cpaid | +38%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea0…313bbacked No | 3c | 4,354$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 0c | 4,295$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 93 | 1.1%1 W · 92 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -94.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ffe…b69dbacked No | 15c | 4,085$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.96 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked No | 11c | 3,908$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.77 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +143.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed No | 9c | 3,890$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.96 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x174c…012dbacked No | 18c | 3,845$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.57 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3d…4dc6backed No | 14c | 3,714$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.66 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…24debacked No | 1c | 3,611$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 37cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c85…9e34backed No | 6c | 3,501$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.87 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6d…d787backed No | 0c | 3,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5b…d411backed Yes | 77c | 3,343$2,577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765.78 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…3acbbacked No | 23c | 3,341$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.09 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 79c | 3,248$2,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.52 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5d…fec6backed No | 1c | 3,203$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc88…a949backed No | 8c | 3,181$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5de…c9e8backed No | 1c | 3,102$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…dfadbacked No | 15c | 3,051$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x225b…422abacked No | 9c | 3,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2f…fa99backed No | 14c | 2,977$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a5…5f3cbacked No | 24c | 2,974$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.34 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +4.9wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +91.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f9d…24b3backed No | 0c | 2,937$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cca…8405backed No | 1c | 2,896$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…3f73backed No | 15c | 2,891$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.39 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d7…9b6ebacked No | 1c | 2,830$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd749…bf72backed No | 11c | 2,825$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.43 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8af9…ff05backed No | 1c | 2,811$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked No | 1c | 2,700$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed No | 16c | 2,698$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.3 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Government shutdown end by November 30?this page
- Will the Government shutdown end by December 31?Yes won
- Will the Government shutdown end by January 31?Yes won
- Will the Government shutdown end by November 15?Yes won
- Will the Government shutdown end by November 7?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end by October 24?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end by October 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.