Us Politics · resolved market
Will the Government shutdown end by January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc79a5851c32c54eed4140fa4288c51d20f5b2d9fbaccd5d262f0f16ccdf9b30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $692,619
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $672,870
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $692,619 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xced3…ce6bbacked No | 0c | 22,360$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…f2cbbacked No | 2c | 21,236$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.82 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x104f…6b02backed No | 2c | 20,586$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…58b0backed No | 0c | 16,518$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9eb…f08dbacked No | 1c | 13,671$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77a4…c84fbacked No | 2c | 11,434$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.98 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8d…ed86backed No | 1c | 11,200$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.16 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3651…df82backed No | 0c | 10,010$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa748…d226backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked No | 0c | 10,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 1c | 8,200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fd…6cc0backed No | 2c | 8,011$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.52 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed No | 0c | 7,813$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 6,322$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3481…90bbbacked No | 2c | 6,000$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x467c…b348backed No | 3c | 5,973$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.85 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 40cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e54…3082backed No | 3c | 5,924$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f9…3a54backed No | 2c | 5,549$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.87 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1e…f988backed No | 0c | 5,450$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.45per pick | 12cpaid | +324.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 2c | 4,565$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.91 | 93 | 1.1%1 W · 92 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -94.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x949a…721cbacked No | 3c | 3,356$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed No | 2c | 3,333$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa2…453ebacked No | 2c | 3,270$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.44 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 2c | 3,122$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.47 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…a248backed No | 2c | 3,060$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 1c | 2,745$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 1c | 2,710$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked No | 2c | 2,644$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.42 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No | 1c | 2,599$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x141a…6cbcbacked No | 4c | 2,563$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08bd…9ad0backed No | 4c | 2,464$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…ef69backed No | 3c | 2,343$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.95 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc626…2beabacked No | 3c | 2,266$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…983ebacked No | 4c | 2,241$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8b…d162backed No | 3c | 2,047$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked No | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d01…083fbacked No | 2c | 2,000$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc1b…b19ebacked No | 3c | 1,827$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…9926backed No | 2c | 1,767$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…abd7backed No | 2c | 1,648$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…a649backed No | 1c | 1,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…a5cabacked No | 4c | 1,476$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c91…9df7backed No | 1c | 1,448$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ee…cc59backed No | 2c | 1,127$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 3c | 1,081$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52a7…3af8backed No | 3c | 1,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed No | 2c | 1,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 74 | 20.3%15 W · 59 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x034f…3655backed No | 1c | 999.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…fad7backed No | 1c | 980.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a74…e4cfbacked No | 1c | 946.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67a7…1facbacked No | 1c | 900.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c71…14a4backed No | 4c | 835.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42df…e54abacked No | 4c | 795$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…04b9backed No | 1c | 791.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -75%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…b007backed No | 1c | 700.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa787…67e2backed No | 2c | 615.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c85…9e34backed No | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6468…556dbacked No | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae52…6e75backed No | 4c | 495$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fba…1404backed No | 4c | 479.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed No | 4c | 459.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf78e…7b64backed No | 5c | 432.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a9…a313backed No | 3c | 400.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ef…dc01backed No | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1264…e005backed No | 3c | 378$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca7…72ecbacked No | 5c | 212.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Government shutdown end by January 31?this page
- Will the Government shutdown end by December 31?Yes won
- Will the Government shutdown end by November 15?Yes won
- Will the Government shutdown end by November 30?Yes won
- Will the Government shutdown end by November 7?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end by October 24?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end by October 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.