Us Politics · resolved market
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a8972708633cbe7d79e6b66f14b6654bd72b4329abb82e28fd9a62e19662f16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,194,775
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,043,195
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,194,775 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,580 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2b6…80b9backed No | 8c | 164,527$12,958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,957.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed No | 20c | 106,523$21,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,325.79 | 192 | 36.5%70 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…f2cbbacked No | 7c | 78,596$5,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,199.52 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed No | 20c | 61,649$12,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,574.85 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d44…ca71backed No | 1c | 57,107$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce66…cc64backed No | 5c | 52,863$2,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,875.03 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -59%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb43…6221backed No | 3c | 51,257$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…ef69backed No | 7c | 48,252$3,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,478.84 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…dfb6backed No | 46c | 47,920$22,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,175.51 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed No | 46c | 44,700$20,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,500 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 9c | 43,586$3,706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,705.74 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5b…d411backed Yes | 68c | 37,420$25,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,880.67 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9256…2e8bbacked No | 15c | 36,907$5,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,372.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ffe…b69dbacked No | 14c | 33,709$4,713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,713.47 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 1c | 33,176$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.35 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29af…2473backed No | 1c | 28,001$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32db…fcdcbacked No | 1c | 25,939$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.9 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 28cpaid | +6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 2c | 24,045$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.05 | 93 | 1.1%1 W · 92 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -94.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…0a01backed No | 5c | 22,917$1,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,038.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8365…bbd1backed No | 1c | 21,963$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 1c | 21,928$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.79 | 151 | 24.5%37 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa20…9262backed Yes | 76c | 20,504$15,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,973.7 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaefb…a0efbacked Yes | 78c | 20,367$15,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,507.39 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86e7…613ebacked No | 7c | 20,000$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,299.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…c66cbacked No | 5c | 19,508$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$982.74 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd49d…8ee0backed No | 42c | 18,349$7,734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,734.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 49c | 18,084$8,801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,801.09 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d1…1e37backed No | 45c | 17,851$8,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,000 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41d…8fe1backed No | 3c | 17,656$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.43 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee29…8c8bbacked Yes | 76c | 17,411$13,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,145.1 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 53cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa871…3bb6backed No | 3c | 15,327$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Yes | 57c | 13,517$7,719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,798.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8271…8542backed No | 18c | 13,422$2,371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,370.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed No | 14c | 11,979$1,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,710.37 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef2…f473backed No | 3c | 11,443$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.48 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3719…2df0backed No | 10c | 10,579$1,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,090 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd748…2125backed No | 57c | 10,500$5,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,949.99 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe352…f259backed No | 8c | 10,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a18…d1c9backed No | 19c | 10,000$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,899.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77a4…c84fbacked No | 40c | 9,562$3,855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,854.56 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ae…48bfbacked No | 2c | 9,518$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6857…0159backed No | 2c | 9,141$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f0…f139backed No | 43c | 9,100$3,913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,913.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 25c | 8,948$2,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,261.69 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 30c | 8,908$2,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,650.22 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 55c | 8,727$4,830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,897.16 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…8f14backed No | 1c | 8,698$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.44 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf2…0300backed No | 14c | 8,560$1,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,171.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4b…8aa4backed Yes | 77c | 8,356$6,404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,952.3 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4392…68c3backed Yes | 58c | 8,248$4,797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,451.24 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 65cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd923…f400backed No | 14c | 8,238$1,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,138.24 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e0…20e4backed Yes | 47c | 8,200$3,832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,368.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +114%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 6c | 8,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.99 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c7…c0e2backed No | 5c | 7,955$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -64%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc16…af7dbacked No | 17c | 7,700$1,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,325.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…20a6backed No | 12c | 7,400$909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$909.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed No | 8c | 7,379$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.57 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed No | 5c | 7,300$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed No | 25c | 7,091$1,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,779.69 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4a…fbc0backed No | 7c | 7,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39f2…146ebacked No | 28c | 6,984$1,962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,962.08 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4196…f997backed No | 4c | 6,904$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ea…17ebbacked Yes | 73c | 6,827$4,977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,850.11 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x285f…2120backed Yes | 57c | 6,600$3,762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,838 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1517…5b34backed No | 36c | 6,587$2,377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,376.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 52c | 6,554$3,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,404.18 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…2a93backed No | 3c | 6,513$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x104f…6b02backed No | 8c | 6,225$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df9…03b2backed Yes | 71c | 6,058$4,322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,736.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed No | 35c | 6,000$2,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,080.2 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 55c | 5,925$3,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,262.61 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab44…cbb1backed No | 9c | 5,828$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37ef…a37abacked No | 9c | 5,760$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.66 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8d…ed86backed No | 49c | 5,663$2,781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,780.97 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…3f73backed No | 44c | 5,659$2,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,473.8 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed No | 2c | 5,627$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.94 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a08…9513backed No | 37c | 5,478$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc88…1eb9backed No | 48c | 5,424$2,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,619.78 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15d4…6dddbacked No | 1c | 5,270$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd46e…904abacked No | 3c | 5,106$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.31 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 0c | 5,100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 2c | 5,007$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.24 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked No | 1c | 5,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,550 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…412abacked No | 12c | 5,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed Yes | 73c | 5,000$3,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…64edbacked No | 1c | 4,695$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.06 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 30c | 4,691$1,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,397.03 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked No | 53c | 4,598$2,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,429.93 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8597…daeebacked No | 62c | 4,500$2,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,785 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed Yes | 78c | 4,483$3,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$964.69 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x225b…422abacked No | 9c | 4,470$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.94 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa553…3eaebacked No | 8c | 4,375$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ee…e354backed No | 2c | 4,226$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9184…6048backed No | 3c | 4,217$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9431…e055backed No | 5c | 4,216$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf19e…8eaabacked No | 3c | 4,188$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b0…bd69backed Yes | 72c | 4,177$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,177.49 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58cf…2a11backed No | 3c | 4,086$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No | 10c | 4,074$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.12 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Government shutdown end by November 15?this page
- Will the Government shutdown end by December 31?Yes won
- Will the Government shutdown end by January 31?Yes won
- Will the Government shutdown end by November 30?Yes won
- Will the Government shutdown end by November 7?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end by October 24?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end by October 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.