Us Politics · resolved market
Will the Government shutdown end by October 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6573a5518cd0e583e350d039b245246d67e52e6a53ff11aa30d3779b9d7f008
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $150,228
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $150,943
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $150,228 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 5c | 14,656$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.08 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…ef69backed Yes | 1c | 9,307$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.87 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0b…f5ebbacked Yes | 7c | 8,935$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 2c | 6,908$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.72 | 80 | 15%12 W · 68 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0238…c051backed Yes | 3c | 5,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c3…fc66backed Yes | 1c | 3,037$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 1c | 2,700$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd980…5be0backed Yes | 2c | 2,349$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 6c | 2,117$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.72 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 1,811$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 93 | 1.1%1 W · 92 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -94.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 2c | 1,733$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.38 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,534$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8c…67c6backed Yes | 1c | 1,450$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,426$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bf…8461backed Yes | 8c | 1,265$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…2c5bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,206$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…8032backed Yes | 3c | 1,187$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 6c | 1,141$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.92 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa3…b441backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbab6…50a2backed Yes | 14c | 819.5$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.19 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1d…3ee4backed Yes | 5c | 736.8$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes | 5c | 698.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2f…f3b9backed Yes | 1c | 688.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdaa…763fbacked Yes | 2c | 625.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…f622backed Yes | 14c | 625.1$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1c…53f2backed Yes | 5c | 617.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 7c | 615.13$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0986…9c4bbacked Yes | 4c | 455.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51e9…a2b9backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed Yes | 10c | 385.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.03 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…79cbbacked Yes | 8c | 381.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e76…3372backed Yes | 4c | 334.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa97c…55b2backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b46…544fbacked Yes | 6c | 331.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68df…d099backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x637a…6aacbacked Yes | 5c | 205$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -74%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa936…f5bdbacked Yes | 5c | 200.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 152 | 27.6%42 W · 110 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 187 | 25.1%47 W · 140 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7480…4a53backed Yes | 8c | 175.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 8c | 173.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 84 | 19%16 W · 68 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca2…066bbacked Yes | 6c | 170$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86b3…5bfabacked Yes | 8c | 162.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6e…e30fbacked Yes | 14c | 145$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3b…a2d3backed Yes | 10c | 130$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5843…075cbacked Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0774…da5dbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb752…b45fbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Government shutdown end by October 24?this page
- Will the Government shutdown end by December 31?Yes won
- Will the Government shutdown end by January 31?Yes won
- Will the Government shutdown end by November 15?Yes won
- Will the Government shutdown end by November 30?Yes won
- Will the Government shutdown end by November 7?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end by October 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.