TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

UFC 322: Brady vs. Morales (Welterweight, Main Card)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Moralesof Brady, Morales
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$748,468
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$811,735

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $748,468 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 582 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x01ba…b77abacked Morales42c82,206$34,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47,745.5722259.5%132 W · 90 L+15.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Morales40c60,018$24,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,910.856451.6%33 W · 31 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Brady56c55,958$31,609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,608.6935253.1%187 W · 165 L+27.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Morales43c50,351$21,505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,846.317233.3%24 W · 48 L-5.0wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-36.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c7a…8536backed Brady60c50,000$30,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,0001030%3 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick49cpaid-54.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Brady57c47,000$26,930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,929.775440.7%22 W · 32 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Morales43c41,839$17,857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,982.438940.4%36 W · 53 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x25cc…9297backed Brady60c36,660$21,822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,822.1350%0 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Morales42c36,548$15,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,332.43043.3%13 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85d9…717bbacked Morales40c33,115$13,408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,706.453158.1%18 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Brady58c25,977$15,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,130.916346%29 W · 34 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8605…750fbacked Brady60c22,521$13,601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,601.45650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-28%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Morales41c21,949$8,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,949.7811554.8%63 W · 52 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d96…443ebacked Brady59c20,204$12,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,00060%0 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3349…c0b8backed Brady58c20,000$11,587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,587.415775.4%43 W · 14 L+4.9wins+0.09per pick67cpaid+17.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7b5d…f8cbbacked Morales41c14,410$5,908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,502.11366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick41cpaid+40.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc3f…5c6fbacked Brady59c14,276$8,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,355.464835.4%17 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac0d…b006backed Brady57c13,953$7,953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,953.211656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdecc…9d36backed Morales44c13,650$6,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,575.9916951.5%87 W · 82 L-0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Brady58c13,545$7,856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,855.93751.4%19 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Morales40c13,000$5,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,824.9537152.8%196 W · 175 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb373…c8b0backed Morales42c11,240$4,721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,518.97714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick36cpaid-66%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Brady57c10,671$6,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,082.2716049.4%79 W · 81 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Morales41c10,418$4,303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,114.675950.8%30 W · 29 L+5.3wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Brady58c10,352$6,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,000.5230964.7%200 W · 109 L+24.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcc3e…37efbacked Morales42c10,103$4,241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,8623737.8%14 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc701…f932backed Brady58c10,000$5,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,840785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick64cpaid+32.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Morales44c10,000$4,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,649.9711746.2%54 W · 63 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Morales42c10,000$4,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,799.964040%16 W · 24 L-5.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-22.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x86e7…613ebacked Morales43c10,000$4,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,679.9513453%71 W · 63 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x132a…abe8backed Brady60c9,481$5,654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,654.193234.4%11 W · 21 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Morales42c9,074$3,832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,241.9726743.8%117 W · 150 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7966…6f94backed Brady56c9,000$5,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,039.997238.9%28 W · 44 L-5.6wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-14.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xace4…bd19backed Brady56c9,000$5,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,039.973959%23 W · 16 L+0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Morales43c8,773$3,765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,008.1913039.2%51 W · 79 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4335…fc2fbacked Brady56c8,287$4,641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,640.99825%2 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-60.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Morales43c7,500$3,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,274.972254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Brady56c7,139$3,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,996.1628849.7%143 W · 145 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Morales42c7,000$2,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,049.9530039.3%118 W · 182 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8efe…7b44backed Morales44c6,818$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,818.222142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2ab…f2c3backed Brady57c6,674$3,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,8001250%6 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x209e…8bb4backed Brady55c6,340$3,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,487.085446.3%25 W · 29 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-17%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c66…66b9backed Morales41c6,098$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,597.56633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-31.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Morales41c6,082$2,515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,566.3323537%87 W · 148 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb6a…f116backed Morales46c5,494$2,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,990.551861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+23.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3850…c4b4backed Morales42c5,000$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,900475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+48%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Brady56c5,000$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,799.9917752%92 W · 85 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Morales43c5,000$2,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,849.986349.2%31 W · 32 L+5.0wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+27.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8aec…1158backed Morales41c4,845$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,845.22560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Morales43c4,665$2,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,652.6414929.5%44 W · 105 L-15.2wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-39.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x37f0…62f0backed Morales44c4,545$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,545.45666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Brady56c4,500$2,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5201338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-27.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd353…f6acbacked Morales44c4,500$1,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,519.9925251.2%129 W · 123 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd735…968ebacked Brady60c4,480$2,699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,699560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e1a…9732backed Brady57c4,386$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,500633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-48.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8a8…a48ebacked Morales44c4,125$1,815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,310.051861.1%11 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4f4d…6055backed Brady56c4,101$2,297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,296.592536%9 W · 16 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-35.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Morales40c4,000$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,399.9942042.6%179 W · 241 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Morales39c4,000$1,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,429.9721044.8%94 W · 116 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbd8…e751backed Morales42c3,576$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,075.551435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Morales43c3,522$1,513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,008.818038.9%70 W · 110 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x188c…c62bbacked Brady57c3,509$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-62.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbddd…3d9abacked Morales41c3,500$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0609148.4%44 W · 47 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked Brady57c3,486$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0005244.2%23 W · 29 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-18.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8d98…e447backed Brady58c3,448$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick64cpaid-48.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Morales40c3,400$1,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0404245.2%19 W · 23 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7fdd…5feabacked Brady59c3,390$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick60cpaid-28.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x30b8…f41fbacked Morales43c3,273$1,401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,872.487736.4%28 W · 49 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadc2…00c7backed Morales41c3,212$1,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,895.371060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Brady55c3,135$1,724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,723.9919154.5%104 W · 87 L+14.9wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Morales45c3,000$1,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6504337.2%16 W · 27 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ef2…f473backed Morales41c3,000$1,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7702100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick49cpaid+111.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Brady58c3,000$1,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,74016745.5%76 W · 91 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc00…3868backed Morales41c2,920$1,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,722.8944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-16.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Morales41c2,901$1,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,715.3717055.3%94 W · 76 L+10.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9a54…f7f9backed Brady59c2,893$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7002147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb831…b5a7backed Morales45c2,778$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,527.78560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+43.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1f2…e9dabacked Brady61c2,638$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,600933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.7wins-0.30per pick63cpaid-52.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9353…4229backed Brady57c2,632$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5001127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.23per pick50cpaid-56%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x58aa…a481backed Brady58c2,621$1,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5209164.8%59 W · 32 L+8.4wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+15.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Morales41c2,500$1,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,47517158.5%100 W · 71 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2aa…deecbacked Brady60c2,500$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5001428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.7wins-0.26per pick55cpaid-57.9%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Morales41c2,480$1,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,463.485244.2%23 W · 29 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Morales41c2,443$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,442.1716247.5%77 W · 85 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2c5…90dfbacked Brady58c2,426$1,408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,407.721163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf635…e876backed Brady60c2,324$1,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,394.446645.5%30 W · 36 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6775…17efbacked Morales44c2,296$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,295.951464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.18per pick46cpaid+34.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Morales41c2,233$916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,317.4335826%93 W · 265 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5696…b3aabacked Morales44c2,227$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,247.275550.9%28 W · 27 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Brady46c2,177$996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$995.84040%16 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-19.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6069…1581backed Brady2c2,132$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4170%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8980…d4f4backed Brady57c2,000$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,140742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-31.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba41…5f4fbacked Morales43c2,000$857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,142.94666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+25%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab74…834dbacked Brady60c1,800$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,080650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20cb…719bbacked Brady59c1,695$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-38.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf838…2aa0backed Brady59c1,584$934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$934.461376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.15per pick62cpaid+18.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Morales42c1,514$632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$881.813740.5%15 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cf4…20b3backed Brady60c1,500$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9003534.3%12 W · 23 L-4.0wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-32.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3945…16d7backed Brady1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-47.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Brady56c1,499$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$839.6421554.4%117 W · 98 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.