UFC · resolved market
UFC 322: Brady vs. Morales (Welterweight, Main Card)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a271d739253e1ae6eb146cab3bc8eb3baea6c1a4544c846489f07480a0f7349
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Moralesof Brady, Morales
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $748,468
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $811,735
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $748,468 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 582 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01ba…b77abacked Morales | 42c | 82,206$34,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47,745.57 | 222 | 59.5%132 W · 90 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…4632backed Morales | 40c | 60,018$24,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,910.85 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Brady | 56c | 55,958$31,609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,608.69 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Morales | 43c | 50,351$21,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,846.31 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7a…8536backed Brady | 60c | 50,000$30,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,000 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Brady | 57c | 47,000$26,930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,929.77 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Morales | 43c | 41,839$17,857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,982.43 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25cc…9297backed Brady | 60c | 36,660$21,822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,822.13 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Morales | 42c | 36,548$15,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,332.4 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d9…717bbacked Morales | 40c | 33,115$13,408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,706.45 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Brady | 58c | 25,977$15,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,130.91 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8605…750fbacked Brady | 60c | 22,521$13,601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,601.45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Morales | 41c | 21,949$8,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,949.78 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d96…443ebacked Brady | 59c | 20,204$12,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,000 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3349…c0b8backed Brady | 58c | 20,000$11,587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,587.41 | 57 | 75.4%43 W · 14 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5d…f8cbbacked Morales | 41c | 14,410$5,908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,502.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3f…5c6fbacked Brady | 59c | 14,276$8,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,355.46 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac0d…b006backed Brady | 57c | 13,953$7,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,953.21 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdecc…9d36backed Morales | 44c | 13,650$6,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,575.99 | 169 | 51.5%87 W · 82 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Brady | 58c | 13,545$7,856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,855.9 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Morales | 40c | 13,000$5,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,824.95 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb373…c8b0backed Morales | 42c | 11,240$4,721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,518.97 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Brady | 57c | 10,671$6,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,082.27 | 160 | 49.4%79 W · 81 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Morales | 41c | 10,418$4,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,114.67 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Brady | 58c | 10,352$6,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,000.52 | 309 | 64.7%200 W · 109 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked Morales | 42c | 10,103$4,241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,862 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc701…f932backed Brady | 58c | 10,000$5,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,840 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 64cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Morales | 44c | 10,000$4,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,649.97 | 117 | 46.2%54 W · 63 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf152…64aabacked Morales | 42c | 10,000$4,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,799.96 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -5.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x86e7…613ebacked Morales | 43c | 10,000$4,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,679.95 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x132a…abe8backed Brady | 60c | 9,481$5,654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,654.19 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Morales | 42c | 9,074$3,832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,241.97 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…6f94backed Brady | 56c | 9,000$5,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,039.99 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xace4…bd19backed Brady | 56c | 9,000$5,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,039.97 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Morales | 43c | 8,773$3,765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,008.19 | 130 | 39.2%51 W · 79 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Brady | 56c | 8,287$4,641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,640.99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Morales | 43c | 7,500$3,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,274.97 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Brady | 56c | 7,139$3,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,996.16 | 288 | 49.7%143 W · 145 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Morales | 42c | 7,000$2,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,049.95 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8efe…7b44backed Morales | 44c | 6,818$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,818.22 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ab…f2c3backed Brady | 57c | 6,674$3,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,800 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Brady | 55c | 6,340$3,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,487.08 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…66b9backed Morales | 41c | 6,098$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,597.56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Morales | 41c | 6,082$2,515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,566.33 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6a…f116backed Morales | 46c | 5,494$2,503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,990.55 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3850…c4b4backed Morales | 42c | 5,000$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,900 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +48%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Brady | 56c | 5,000$2,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,799.99 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Morales | 43c | 5,000$2,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,849.98 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8aec…1158backed Morales | 41c | 4,845$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,845.22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Morales | 43c | 4,665$2,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,652.64 | 149 | 29.5%44 W · 105 L | -15.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x37f0…62f0backed Morales | 44c | 4,545$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,545.45 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Brady | 56c | 4,500$2,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,520 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked Morales | 44c | 4,500$1,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,519.99 | 252 | 51.2%129 W · 123 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd735…968ebacked Brady | 60c | 4,480$2,699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,699 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1a…9732backed Brady | 57c | 4,386$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a8…a48ebacked Morales | 44c | 4,125$1,815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,310.05 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4d…6055backed Brady | 56c | 4,101$2,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,296.59 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Morales | 40c | 4,000$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,399.99 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Morales | 39c | 4,000$1,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,429.97 | 210 | 44.8%94 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd8…e751backed Morales | 42c | 3,576$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,075.55 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Morales | 43c | 3,522$1,513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,008.8 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x188c…c62bbacked Brady | 57c | 3,509$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddd…3d9abacked Morales | 41c | 3,500$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,060 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fa…a26cbacked Brady | 57c | 3,486$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d98…e447backed Brady | 58c | 3,448$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Morales | 40c | 3,400$1,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,040 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fdd…5feabacked Brady | 59c | 3,390$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30b8…f41fbacked Morales | 43c | 3,273$1,401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,872.48 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadc2…00c7backed Morales | 41c | 3,212$1,317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,895.37 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Brady | 55c | 3,135$1,724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,723.99 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | +14.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Morales | 45c | 3,000$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,650 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef2…f473backed Morales | 41c | 3,000$1,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,770 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 49cpaid | +111.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Brady | 58c | 3,000$1,740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,740 | 167 | 45.5%76 W · 91 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc00…3868backed Morales | 41c | 2,920$1,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,722.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Morales | 41c | 2,901$1,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,715.37 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a54…f7f9backed Brady | 59c | 2,893$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb831…b5a7backed Morales | 45c | 2,778$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,527.78 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f2…e9dabacked Brady | 61c | 2,638$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…4229backed Brady | 57c | 2,632$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -56%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58aa…a481backed Brady | 58c | 2,621$1,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,520 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Morales | 41c | 2,500$1,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,475 | 171 | 58.5%100 W · 71 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2aa…deecbacked Brady | 60c | 2,500$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Morales | 41c | 2,480$1,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,463.48 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Morales | 41c | 2,443$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,442.17 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c5…90dfbacked Brady | 58c | 2,426$1,408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,407.72 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf635…e876backed Brady | 60c | 2,324$1,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,394.44 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6775…17efbacked Morales | 44c | 2,296$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,295.95 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Morales | 41c | 2,233$916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,317.43 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Morales | 44c | 2,227$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,247.27 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Brady | 46c | 2,177$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.8 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6069…1581backed Brady | 2c | 2,132$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8980…d4f4backed Brady | 57c | 2,000$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba41…5f4fbacked Morales | 43c | 2,000$857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,142.94 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +25%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab74…834dbacked Brady | 60c | 1,800$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20cb…719bbacked Brady | 59c | 1,695$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf838…2aa0backed Brady | 59c | 1,584$934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$934.46 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Morales | 42c | 1,514$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$881.81 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf4…20b3backed Brady | 60c | 1,500$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3945…16d7backed Brady | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Brady | 56c | 1,499$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.64 | 215 | 54.4%117 W · 98 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC 322: Brady vs. Morales (Welterweight, Main Card)this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- Will Michael Morales win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will Sean Brady win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.