UFC · resolved market
O/U 2.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45499844b4bbf03e615094f59255b7a6084e24e52c9d764a6777357ee7d7d510
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,750
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,683
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,750 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Over | 53c | 5,000$2,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,670 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 46c | 3,026$1,402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,623.31 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Over | 4c | 2,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +272.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4d…6055backed Under | 47c | 1,950$917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,033.5 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6775…17efbacked Under | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Over | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 248 | 47.2%117 W · 131 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…57ebbacked Under | 41c | 186$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Under | 41c | 181$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.79 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Under | 41c | 124$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked Under | 45c | 109$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Under | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x934a…9096backed Over | 59c | 98$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x806c…3381backed Over | 59c | 93$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…7ca5backed Over | 59c | 83$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x597f…e9cfbacked Over | 59c | 78$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd53…a861backed Under | 41c | 74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.66 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +109.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…52d0backed Under | 44c | 72$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.34per pick | 43cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…0290backed Under | 41c | 57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe13a…6bb5backed Over | 59c | 54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…9b17backed Over | 59c | 53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Under | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe9…a400backed Over | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Under | 44c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52cc…9998backed Over | 57c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92bf…0297backed Over | 59c | 31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 49cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77ec…4f9cbacked Over | 59c | 31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -66%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43dc…88cfbacked Over | 59c | 31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb7…8745backed Over | 59c | 31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.44per pick | 60cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…b90bbacked Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd26c…fc57backed Over | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…d253backed Over | 59c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22e5…81acbacked Over | 59c | 27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72df…42f6backed Over | 56c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9d…c956backed Under | 48c | 24.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 229 | 53.3%122 W · 107 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff0…f5babacked Under | 46c | 24.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Over | 55c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e02…c5f2backed Over | 56c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9840…cb31backed Over | 59c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.9wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2db1…30a2backed Over | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9430…97cebacked Over | 59c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…9f5abacked Over | 59c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 2.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC 322: Brady vs. Morales (Welterweight, Main Card)Morales won
- Will Michael Morales win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will Sean Brady win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.