UFC · resolved market
Will the fight be won by submission?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd09345525c5c6e98333e303ea1857c22256af87186d92bd14ba955bf9e94e5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,893
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,002
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,893 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 73c | 617.56$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.74 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked No | 76c | 248$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e22…f532backed Yes | 27c | 203.7$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…6dffbacked Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…3a8abacked No | 76c | 190$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa0…441abacked Yes | 27c | 188$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.22 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb29…a7fcbacked Yes | 27c | 177.78$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 41cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked No | 72c | 163.29$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.72 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 76c | 150$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked No | 76c | 143$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed No | 77c | 129.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa521…4599backed No | 75c | 129$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed No | 74c | 126.54$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.43 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…52d0backed No | 74c | 123$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.98 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.34per pick | 43cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 72c | 106.84$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3021…badabacked Yes | 26c | 95.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce96…ff5cbacked Yes | 24c | 91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cd…161fbacked Yes | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed No | 73c | 81$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed No | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked No | 76c | 79$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77cf…4a81backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x145e…e03abacked Yes | 27c | 76.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36bc…ec72backed Yes | 27c | 74.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 158 | 48.1%76 W · 82 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9981…2d71backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…af43backed No | 74c | 73$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +121%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x063c…d642backed Yes | 24c | 72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…9b17backed Yes | 24c | 66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…0751backed Yes | 24c | 65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…47f8backed Yes | 24c | 65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5253…b898backed Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfde8…c52fbacked Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36c9…3f9fbacked Yes | 24c | 52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab2c…0ab7backed Yes | 26c | 52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480a…e3c9backed Yes | 27c | 51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc07…e9f2backed Yes | 26c | 43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaac…1045backed Yes | 24c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd277…73febacked No | 70c | 25.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the fight be won by submission?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC 322: Brady vs. Morales (Welterweight, Main Card)Morales won
- Will Michael Morales win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will Sean Brady win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.