UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x840b071ab79c5d2b8976279e0595cfb4da45fc5b526444bbddc16b90e479a9f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,862
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,681
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,862 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 49c | 4,940$2,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,420.68 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4d…6055backed No | 50c | 2,845$1,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,424.45 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76ed…fa48backed No | 50c | 1,915$964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$951.29 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 9c | 1,776$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.84 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +272.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked No | 52c | 1,240$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.37 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30b8…f41fbacked Yes | 50c | 1,146$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.71 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Yes | 50c | 700$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked No | 52c | 400$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed Yes | 50c | 388.68$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.12 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed No | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed No | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 39c | 161.47$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.07 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…ecf3backed No | 52c | 121$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.08 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fed…0d78backed No | 46c | 121$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.34 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdd…11bebacked No | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked No | 46c | 119$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.26 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd87…01a9backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed No | 49c | 97.96$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.96 | 209 | 33.5%70 W · 139 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed No | 49c | 95$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6941…efd5backed No | 53c | 94.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.66 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…ae85backed Yes | 50c | 94$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed No | 47c | 89$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.17 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked No | 51c | 83$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b3…0d89backed Yes | 53c | 83$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…8b3abacked No | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed No | 49c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 61cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda03…7f8cbacked Yes | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25c3…eb62backed Yes | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked No | 46c | 58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73c5…4997backed Yes | 54c | 58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…ab38backed Yes | 53c | 55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…c3b9backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72df…42f6backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x063c…d642backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cd…161fbacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked No | 49c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52cc…9998backed Yes | 53c | 44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed No | 53c | 44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x663b…e26cbacked Yes | 54c | 41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6014…5a58backed Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47d3…4255backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…7a38backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf06a…cfdabacked Yes | 48c | 38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…0b63backed No | 52c | 37.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78a4…05afbacked Yes | 48c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5266…ddaebacked Yes | 54c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86a…9ed1backed Yes | 53c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…a8edbacked Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.41per pick | 61cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45d3…9e3dbacked No | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed No | 53c | 24.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5f…b793backed Yes | 51c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95da…60b4backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab2c…0ab7backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC 322: Brady vs. Morales (Welterweight, Main Card)Morales won
- Will Michael Morales win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will Sean Brady win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.