UFC · resolved market
Will Michael Morales win by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb22dd5c13acf91cbb33d71ae74c67618d2bb5c7a91834eb36aeabf0a37fbb1fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,343
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,345
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,343 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 5c | 1,600$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +272.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 76c | 967.33$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.05 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c1…51aabacked Yes | 24c | 625$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3349…c0b8backed No | 77c | 567.42$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.29 | 57 | 75.4%43 W · 14 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fa…44e5backed Yes | 25c | 534$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.72 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed No | 76c | 300$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9781…bc2abacked Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.33 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked No | 76c | 192.33$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.17 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6775…17efbacked Yes | 29c | 175.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.25 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8d…c822backed No | 76c | 158.58$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.19 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.6wins | -0.33per pick | 60cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…ecf3backed No | 77c | 152$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.04 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5f…1dc6backed Yes | 24c | 145.84$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.84 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5c…0c50backed Yes | 23c | 131$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.87 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3021…badabacked Yes | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.7 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 72c | 95$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2878…dd87backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed No | 77c | 71$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.67 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2579…d6cbbacked Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 52$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5266…ddaebacked Yes | 23c | 52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7d…ac4bbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.43per pick | 43cpaid | +122.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7b43…4e59backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed No | 70c | 41.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…0672backed No | 77c | 31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed No | 76c | 27.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed No | 77c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed No | 77c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Michael Morales win by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC 322: Brady vs. Morales (Welterweight, Main Card)Morales won
- Will Sean Brady win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.