TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Vikings vs. Chargers: O/U 44.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$609,076
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$609,040

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $609,076 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 299 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2cc0…d2d0backed Under49c167,038$81,849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81,848.76250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ec3…3cdcbacked Over51c139,882$71,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68,542.182100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Over51c80,000$40,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,40031240.7%127 W · 185 L-22.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed Under49c43,943$21,743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,742.5319553.8%105 W · 90 L+16.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+23.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Under49c30,412$14,952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,951.8624957%142 W · 107 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Over51c30,000$15,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,803.5613843.5%60 W · 78 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Under49c25,966$12,749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,748.9486547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Under50c23,919$11,909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,909.4444652.9%236 W · 210 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe153…e415backed Over51c23,216$11,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,375.84250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68df…4815backed Under51c20,083$10,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,231.518156.9%103 W · 78 L+11.8wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x43d4…13a2backed Over49c19,918$9,751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,167.283135.5%11 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-23.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa544…e40fbacked Over51c17,040$8,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,349.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d45…9054backed Under50c13,904$6,928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,928.1131350.2%157 W · 156 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Under49c13,226$6,524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,523.5633553.4%179 W · 156 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Over50c12,457$6,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,228.4261148.6%297 W · 314 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0428…93f8backed Under49c11,512$5,641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,640.88714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-75.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Over51c11,246$5,754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,492.2441947.3%198 W · 221 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc585…1b72backed Under49c11,124$5,451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,450.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over51c11,000$5,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,42051352.2%268 W · 245 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9aa7…08f7backed Over51c10,151$5,177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,973.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Under48c10,002$4,801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,800.9635848.6%174 W · 184 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x226b…cad6backed Over51c9,802$4,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,802.9623937.7%90 W · 149 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc9af…6371backed Under50c8,227$4,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,147.872920.7%6 W · 23 L-8.5wins-0.29per pick50cpaid-57.6%equal weight33-0.16 edge/pick
0xe6a6…7538backed Under49c8,000$3,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,92020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f59…1176backed Under49c8,000$3,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,92020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x45dc…92afbacked Under49c7,989$3,915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,914.61425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c49…1e67backed Over51c7,575$3,863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,711.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf869…6d20backed Under49c7,442$3,647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,646.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under48c7,100$3,408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,40883147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ab3…e65ebacked Over51c5,903$3,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,892.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc534…428abacked Under49c5,781$2,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,832.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6af7…a0a3backed Over51c5,651$2,882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,768.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fcb…1941backed Over51c5,608$2,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,747.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5eb8…4b2cbacked Under49c5,459$2,675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,674.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f4d…f826backed Under49c5,421$2,656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,656.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x590f…5b28backed Over51c5,278$2,692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,586.22250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ecb…3b01backed Over51c5,148$2,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,522.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08bf…574ebacked Under49c4,954$2,427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,427.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6fd…1409backed Under49c4,293$2,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,103.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d7d…7765backed Over51c4,099$2,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,008.51250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5094…a296backed Over51c4,023$2,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,971.272100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+102.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e69…82c9backed Over51c4,011$2,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,965.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c71…6351backed Over51c3,945$2,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,933.05250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3914…a493backed Over51c3,836$1,956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,879.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29b1…da56backed Under49c3,797$1,861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,860.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9875…70f5backed Over51c3,654$1,864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,790.46616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick9cpaid-67.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc43…938ebacked Over51c3,542$1,806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,735.58633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c7e…431ebacked Under49c3,417$1,674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,674.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04b9…cdaabacked Over52c3,405$1,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,634.1911649.1%57 W · 59 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ecf…06f9backed Over51c3,393$1,730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,662.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over51c3,360$1,709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,651.071,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Over52c3,248$1,681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,566.6325956.8%147 W · 112 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x341b…e11dbacked Under49c3,246$1,591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,590.54540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc04…01f1backed Over51c3,171$1,617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,553.79714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick8cpaid-72%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f4d…6982backed Under49c3,145$1,541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,541.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc744…c412backed Over51c2,929$1,494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,435.21333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid-34.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a34…b717backed Under49c2,890$1,416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,416.120%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf297…ffa1backed Over51c2,876$1,467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,409.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0e0…88e3backed Over51c2,876$1,467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,409.24757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x72c7…472fbacked Under49c2,843$1,393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,393.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc943…7626backed Over51c2,766$1,411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,355.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x522d…c0dcbacked Under49c2,762$1,353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,353.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe859…61cebacked Under49c2,715$1,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,330.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe65…ced6backed Under49c2,663$1,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,304.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec92…98f5backed Over51c2,648$1,349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,298.9614757.1%84 W · 63 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x531e…db38backed Under49c2,624$1,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,285.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e4c…94ecbacked Under49c2,572$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,260.28837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-32.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc926…effabacked Over51c2,567$1,309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,257.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c33…8279backed Under49c2,488$1,219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,219.1230%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47b5…b3b2backed Over51c2,456$1,253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,203.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe608…749cbacked Under49c2,451$1,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x608e…80b7backed Over51c2,360$1,204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,156.4560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+13.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16ce…a6f9backed Under49c2,332$1,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,142.68520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-48.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2384…d3dcbacked Over51c2,282$1,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,118.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed30…f3b3backed Over51c2,277$1,161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,115.73250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5671…6e56backed Over51c2,272$1,159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,113.28714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick8cpaid-72%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb49a…066cbacked Under49c2,272$1,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,113.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ed8…42e1backed Over51c2,262$1,154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,108.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbce8…9ea5backed Under49c2,210$1,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,082.9850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54f4…a5cfbacked Over51c2,182$1,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,069.18250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9aa9…f37ebacked Under49c2,155$1,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,055.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…c9a5backed Over51c2,103$1,073 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,030.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f3b…d6c1backed Under49c2,100$1,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Under48c2,084$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.3224053.8%129 W · 111 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca81…91c7backed Under49c2,082$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,020.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf930…e346backed Over51c2,000$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98021454.7%117 W · 97 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00039754.4%216 W · 181 L+26.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+13.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc4a7…5a3bbacked Under49c1,958$959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$959.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x015e…3954backed Over51c1,949$994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$955.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bf9…6927backed Over51c1,835$936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$899.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdc5…7d2ebacked Over51c1,815$926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$889.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7016…9c7ebacked Under49c1,808$886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$885.9230%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa694…7acfbacked Over51c1,800$918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$882333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid-34.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2d0…fa41backed Under49c1,788$876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$876.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3bc…1550backed Over51c1,714$874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$839.86250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d62…08d1backed Over51c1,701$868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$833.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Under48c1,667$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.1620661.2%126 W · 80 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ed0…d2b2backed Under49c1,582$775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$775.18540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa99f…0c9ebacked Under49c1,581$775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$774.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3d5…db36backed Over51c1,574$803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.