NFL · resolved market
Vikings vs. Chargers: O/U 42.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ff8ae5c12a1d660223e601d437ed5b951d1f258ef2e963640856fb1039e5ba9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,890
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,496
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,890 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 41c | 2,130$872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$872.24 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09f8…e156backed Over | 59c | 1,100$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…252ebacked Over | 58c | 851.44$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +24%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 45c | 840$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.8 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Over | 59c | 600$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Over | 56c | 498.05$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.61 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 41c | 228.81$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.81 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bce…558cbacked Over | 59c | 228.81$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.81 | 162 | 75.3%122 W · 40 L | +17.3wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 42c | 190$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…c9dbbacked Over | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f23…b19ebacked Over | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -6.6wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 59c | 79$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.39 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 42c | 69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2443…354cbacked Over | 59c | 66.1$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Under | 42c | 63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 57c | 47.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9abd…c0edbacked Under | 44c | 38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab3d…9482backed Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x557f…efa5backed Under | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 59c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Vikings vs. Chargers: O/U 42.5this page
- Spread: Chargers (-2.5)Chargers won
- Spread: Chargers (-3.5)Chargers won
- Vikings vs. ChargersChargers won
- Vikings vs. Chargers: O/U 43.5Over won
- Vikings vs. Chargers: O/U 44.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.