NFL · resolved market
Vikings vs. Chargers: O/U 43.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7aef47f6de411da7ded399199271e6ecc36a9c2eca3ec037dadd28fd1410abc0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $80,629
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $99,228
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,629 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Under | 45c | 23,294$10,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,510.38 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d4…13a2backed Over | 55c | 20,000$11,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,000 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x052c…404ebacked Over | 56c | 17,812$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,811.61 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Under | 44c | 10,000$4,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,400 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 44c | 7,124$3,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,134.77 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 46c | 4,032$1,838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,837.88 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 43c | 3,005$1,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,299.07 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 55c | 2,350$1,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,066.99 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 44c | 1,509$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.07 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Over | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9925…e33ebacked Over | 56c | 720$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.8 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…f7a3backed Over | 55c | 550$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.5 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Under | 46c | 530.24$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.91 | 249 | 57%142 W · 107 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 44c | 493.5$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.16 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 56c | 458$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.52 | 314 | 50%157 W · 157 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09f8…e156backed Over | 56c | 457$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.08 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfae6…c165backed Over | 55c | 450$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f60…bbccbacked Under | 46c | 432.17$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Over | 54c | 393.02$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.79 | 234 | 47.9%112 W · 122 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 54c | 379.53$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.85 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 44c | 295.45$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Under | 45c | 270.5$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.1 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Over | 55c | 241.11$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.44 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fef…5840backed Under | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Over | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…7650backed Over | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc96f…d46bbacked Over | 56c | 178.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.59 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bce…558cbacked Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 162 | 75.3%122 W · 40 L | +17.3wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x38ce…5431backed Over | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…012cbacked Over | 54c | 137.22$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.12 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd798…b210backed Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb9…dfa7backed Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65d3…d153backed Under | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Under | 45c | 90.91$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdff0…73fdbacked Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 45c | 87$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.91 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x114a…8aa2backed Over | 56c | 83.93$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.93 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 44c | 83.93$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.93 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Over | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 174 | 59.2%103 W · 71 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…bf01backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49e…58afbacked Under | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91b5…49d5backed Over | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…190cbacked Under | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Vikings vs. Chargers: O/U 43.5this page
- Spread: Chargers (-2.5)Chargers won
- Spread: Chargers (-3.5)Chargers won
- Vikings vs. ChargersChargers won
- Vikings vs. Chargers: O/U 42.5Over won
- Vikings vs. Chargers: O/U 44.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.