Token Launches · resolved market
Kodiak FDV above $25M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcabe62d1adaa6d04215925a44b608ebcc50f0eb6100aab7acc1fbce70e840e56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $242,682
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $223,058
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $242,682 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd7ae…df47backed No | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…73e3backed No | 1c | 39,375$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.5 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2048…f572backed Yes | 80c | 13,996$11,192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,804.69 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58aa…a481backed No | 1c | 12,921$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.68 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba2f…9b76backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc2…9271backed No | 21c | 9,001$1,930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,930.18 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f24…c911backed No | 22c | 7,854$1,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,714.84 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6911…947cbacked No | 26c | 4,743$1,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,240 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…f88ebacked Yes | 75c | 3,934$2,962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$972.66 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 63cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed No | 20c | 3,167$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625 | 144 | 37.5%54 W · 90 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 1c | 3,100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce61…8ef6backed No | 21c | 3,000$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb1…50ffbacked No | 4c | 2,907$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.45 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2560…a34fbacked Yes | 75c | 2,440$1,841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.72 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e85…1f81backed No | 23c | 2,149$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.04 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e7…a9f1backed No | 24c | 2,075$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7f…0380backed Yes | 79c | 2,064$1,632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.45 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked No | 6c | 1,717$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.99 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 11c | 1,519$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.24 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +11.1wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…24dbbacked Yes | 79c | 1,400$1,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x464e…1a67backed No | 19c | 1,300$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9928…b214backed No | 8c | 1,184$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 11cpaid | +106.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9041…2cf2backed No | 14c | 1,127$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.57 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf52…3597backed Yes | 78c | 1,120$875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -31%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbb…a41abacked Yes | 72c | 1,000$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed No | 13c | 999.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x407c…49aabacked No | 21c | 968.94$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.19 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +122.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad11…e440backed No | 10c | 946.26$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 915.03$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6252…495dbacked No | 10c | 828.33$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.83 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 7c | 700$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 5c | 631.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 19c | 567.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.19 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 13c | 553$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.91 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cba…b43fbacked No | 4c | 512.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed No | 5c | 505.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 119 | 0.8%1 W · 118 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3121…dec8backed No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e8…5012backed No | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…a2b4backed No | 5c | 499.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 41 | 14.6%6 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 16c | 497$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.41 | 156 | 37.2%58 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fca…f72ebacked No | 17c | 492$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.36 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +164.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe5fd…fce2backed No | 4c | 490.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 7c | 448.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…01e0backed No | 24c | 428.5$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.48 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 4c | 418.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed No | 7c | 400$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 45 | 2.2%1 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed No | 7c | 400$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 112 | 2.7%3 W · 109 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 8c | 392.93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked No | 6c | 373.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 60 | 1.7%1 W · 59 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c8…e944backed No | 7c | 333.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cb…3f69backed No | 15c | 330.31$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb3a…deaabacked No | 30c | 296.11$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cf…b672backed Yes | 77c | 284.59$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.59 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…33a9backed No | 4c | 260.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21b2…b602backed No | 26c | 250.19$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.7 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 13c | 210.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 204 | 22.1%45 W · 159 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa854…3856backed No | 6c | 209.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…5e33backed Yes | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 51 | 66.7%34 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked No | 23c | 199.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 13c | 182.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 14c | 176.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 107 | 56.1%60 W · 47 L | +8.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa39e…1d88backed No | 15c | 171.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43f…ea81backed Yes | 72c | 149$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.96 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa9…4baabacked No | 7c | 146$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 12c | 128.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 254 | 22%56 W · 198 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d1…0c8fbacked Yes | 57c | 128.37$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc43a…349ebacked Yes | 76c | 110$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad4…3d8cbacked No | 35c | 104.44$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.94 | 147 | 32%47 W · 100 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7187…4859backed Yes | 76c | 103.26$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc483…8ac8backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4951…42e3backed Yes | 77c | 99.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ba…13febacked Yes | 71c | 99.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2575…e7e6backed No | 23c | 99.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 13c | 89.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 169 | 27.8%47 W · 122 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce2…f6c2backed No | 22c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +4.7wins | +0.24per pick | 31cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeab5…240bbacked Yes | 76c | 65.68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…385bbacked Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe2…e4d2backed No | 27c | 38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5060…6daabacked Yes | 76c | 26.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd30b…a2edbacked Yes | 76c | 15.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kodiak FDV above $25M one day after launch?this page
- Kodiak FDV above $100M one day after launch?No won
- Kodiak FDV above $150M one day after launch?No won
- Kodiak FDV above $50M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.