Token Launches · resolved market
Kodiak FDV above $50M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc0de4445b33b4af825ce13880b37a55815e731bfda7b2bbd62005823a734450
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,545,673
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,111,293
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,545,673 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 214 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 1c | 86,960$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.53 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…8bfabacked Yes | 0c | 47,922$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.77 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 12c | 30,273$3,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,602.94 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 0c | 28,988$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.97 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3e…5c4ebacked Yes | 3c | 25,500$805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.56 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x524b…49acbacked No | 4c | 25,341$1,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,280.97 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…73e3backed No | 13c | 23,500$3,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,399.99 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed No | 6c | 21,759$1,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,363.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,459.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89ac…8e15backed Yes | 2c | 17,869$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.49 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58aa…a481backed No | 25c | 17,389$4,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,033.89 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa060…4f7fbacked No | 11c | 14,932$1,615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,316.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +261.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94e5…a46cbacked No | 35c | 14,879$5,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,712.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5615…df5ebacked Yes | 65c | 14,395$9,423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,422.67 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a27…731cbacked Yes | 8c | 12,996$1,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,087.69 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…9597backed No | 4c | 12,150$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,707.5 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 51c | 11,622$5,930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,691.27 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x491d…f42bbacked No | 4c | 11,391$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,967.89 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +329.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb01…02e5backed No | 33c | 10,515$3,473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,041.67 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa3…64e9backed No | 3c | 10,000$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,700 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +498.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x631c…450fbacked No | 78c | 9,800$7,616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,184.14 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ca…960bbacked No | 53c | 9,795$5,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,584.29 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 18c | 9,661$1,742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,919.21 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a5…bb7ebacked Yes | 52c | 9,599$5,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,015.71 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed No | 26c | 8,759$2,307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,452.71 | 144 | 37.5%54 W · 90 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8074…5c76backed No | 38c | 8,709$3,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,377.82 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a79…b0f2backed Yes | 2c | 8,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.8 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa958…fecfbacked Yes | 3c | 7,557$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.46 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc62…6307backed No | 46c | 7,466$3,457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,008.65 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd53…4d7ebacked No | 7c | 7,300$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,759 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +574.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c14…bd82backed No | 7c | 7,300$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,759 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.93per pick | 7cpaid | +1,249.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa43f…fc07backed No | 5c | 6,974$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,621.29 | 57 | 12.3%7 W · 50 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6911…947cbacked No | 26c | 6,203$1,584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,619.22 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…dc5cbacked No | 15c | 5,920$917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,003.72 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 30c | 5,548$1,690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,857.56 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad86…b77bbacked No | 7c | 5,383$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,025.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +653.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f1…bdc6backed No | 18c | 5,184$945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,239.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +127.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda17…d901backed Yes | 0c | 4,862$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 1c | 4,862$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.62 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed No | 37c | 4,810$1,783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,026.6 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +6.7wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc67e…b892backed No | 45c | 4,781$2,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,607.66 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbe…c192backed Yes | 2c | 4,500$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.7 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e62…ef0fbacked No | 70c | 4,353$3,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,298.94 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60d1…0c8fbacked No | 8c | 4,349$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,983.93 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce61…8ef6backed Yes | 17c | 4,096$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.38 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc771…b18fbacked Yes | 30c | 4,000$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,180 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x828d…c9a5backed No | 51c | 3,837$1,953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,884.35 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d9…19b0backed No | 8c | 3,791$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,503.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +658.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f38…e8f9backed No | 7c | 3,650$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,379.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +574.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2048…f572backed Yes | 43c | 3,588$1,557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,556.76 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f24…c911backed Yes | 4c | 3,473$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.84 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54fa…363cbacked Yes | 32c | 3,056$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb796…58a8backed No | 35c | 2,897$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,896.37 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked No | 58c | 2,726$1,581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,144.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23f4…c234backed Yes | 15c | 2,679$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aea…ee37backed No | 76c | 2,550$1,933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.3 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62c2…c7aebacked Yes | 52c | 2,483$1,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,289.96 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5173…1abcbacked Yes | 25c | 2,465$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -52%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb3a…deaabacked No | 75c | 2,391$1,804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.52 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed Yes | 1c | 2,345$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0d…1407backed Yes | 6c | 2,298$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…f88ebacked No | 46c | 2,218$1,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,190.12 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 63cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2560…a34fbacked No | 36c | 2,140$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,373.34 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7f…0380backed Yes | 1c | 2,111$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 59c | 2,001$1,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -42%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed No | 11c | 1,900$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,692 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e85…1f81backed No | 60c | 1,849$1,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.93 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 76c | 1,833$1,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.99 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +11.1wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x44c4…e3bfbacked No | 9c | 1,820$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,661.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,046.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x407c…49aabacked Yes | 1c | 1,646$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +122.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked No | 6c | 1,594$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500.18 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde63…46c2backed No | 9c | 1,575$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,436.1 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad23…47c4backed No | 33c | 1,485$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990.74 | 107 | 63.6%68 W · 39 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x15f7…b6c1backed No | 16c | 1,389$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,168.93 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 11cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1dc…ff6cbacked No | 56c | 1,347$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.29 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e08…7788backed Yes | 40c | 1,330$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.04 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -5.6wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…b8f5backed Yes | 2c | 1,314$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 37c | 1,296$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.44 | 156 | 37.2%58 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf164…97d4backed No | 13c | 1,259$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,097.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,258$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.36 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4059…3371backed Yes | 4c | 1,222$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.33 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc2…ce94backed Yes | 4c | 1,200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21b2…b602backed No | 15c | 1,193$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,016.12 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,186$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.28 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x402e…5d12backed Yes | 40c | 1,147$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.81 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77a0…8f62backed Yes | 24c | 1,137$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.95 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked No | 15c | 1,109$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938.41 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2592…839abacked No | 25c | 1,082$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815.59 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…0ba4backed No | 8c | 1,050$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$961 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7f…694abacked No | 68c | 1,036$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.31 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 27c | 1,031$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.19 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d04…f720backed No | 56c | 1,021$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +43%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9f…578abacked No | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18e4…e2bbbacked Yes | 11c | 1,000$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7c…3ecabacked No | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +5.1wins | +0.73per pick | 12cpaid | +733.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc483…8ac8backed Yes | 2c | 949.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1b…f055backed Yes | 25c | 916.3$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.03 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e49…cc2abacked Yes | 15c | 910.97$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.65 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf221…2575backed No | 13c | 905.69$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$787.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked No | 8c | 900$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.96 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kodiak FDV above $50M one day after launch?this page
- Kodiak FDV above $100M one day after launch?No won
- Kodiak FDV above $150M one day after launch?No won
- Kodiak FDV above $25M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.