Music · resolved market
Will Spain participate in Eurovision 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d07ac4fb0c6c46164f1b7e043870e524bd27bd96e06282427eadc0780c4731d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,612
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,337
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,612 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98ec…8fd6backed Yes | 10c | 6,230$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa694…3f17backed Yes | 7c | 2,861$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 4c | 2,539$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.36 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 4c | 2,062$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed No | 26c | 1,873$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,394.17 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +4.3wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89ca…19acbacked No | 78c | 1,119$878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7348…e2abbacked Yes | 6c | 1,074$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.42 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 3c | 998.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b4…6709backed Yes | 77c | 941.77$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 72cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 7c | 877.3$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.75 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf710…5686backed Yes | 3c | 703.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54df…8823backed Yes | 12c | 700$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6252…495dbacked No | 77c | 647.94$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf968…84bdbacked No | 77c | 558.83$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.23 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0265…5c19backed Yes | 10c | 540$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 46c | 507.33$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.73 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff3…c138backed Yes | 11c | 443.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca81…f2abbacked Yes | 7c | 421$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84fa…1327backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 328.29$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 36c | 316$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.52 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c6d…b2ecbacked Yes | 6c | 307.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccc…cd45backed Yes | 37c | 300$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc413…3204backed Yes | 33c | 254$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x582d…c221backed Yes | 12c | 251.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8809…7f27backed Yes | 70c | 247.09$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed No | 75c | 242.36$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.01 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 71c | 211.09$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.61 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x978e…80bcbacked No | 66c | 200$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.47 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee8…523bbacked Yes | 33c | 175.33$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x898a…16a0backed Yes | 7c | 150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2929…a3a5backed Yes | 17c | 118.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed Yes | 38c | 109.82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd71c…0900backed No | 29c | 105$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +214%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef9…7a60backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 21c | 99.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.19 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 64c | 98.51$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.17 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27c2…6eb3backed Yes | 64c | 93.74$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d7…9a6dbacked Yes | 70c | 86.13$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7de0…31f0backed Yes | 13c | 74.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca0…e17abacked No | 74c | 67.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 31c | 59.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc810…3ccdbacked No | 35c | 57.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 19c | 55.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.29 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 31c | 55.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 58c | 53.79$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ea…ee26backed Yes | 78c | 50.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed Yes | 45c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b09…4d75backed No | 42c | 48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5c…7524backed No | 56c | 44.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb77d…2f85backed Yes | 44c | 44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1970…398dbacked Yes | 37c | 42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe86c…10f3backed Yes | 72c | 40.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9259…c2d3backed No | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7c…8356backed No | 32c | 35.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -4.4wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7150…6a8abacked Yes | 33c | 35.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…151cbacked Yes | 64c | 31.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed No | 49c | 30.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +6.2wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 33c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked Yes | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94db…187cbacked Yes | 72c | 29.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd883…4fd7backed Yes | 48c | 27.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…5073backed Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb58d…9bf9backed Yes | 79c | 25.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8aa…3456backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x686a…966bbacked Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01fa…c2edbacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Spain participate in Eurovision 2026?this page
- Will Belgium participate in Eurovision 2026?Yes won
- Will Canada participate in Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Germany participate in Eurovision 2026?Yes won
- Will Iceland participate in Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Ireland participate in Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Israel participate in Eurovision 2026?Yes won
- Will Italy participate in Eurovision 2026?Yes won
- Will Kazakhstan participate in Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Moldova participate in Eurovision 2026?Yes won
- Will Netherlands participate in Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will North Macedonia participate in Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Slovenia participate in Eurovision 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.