Music · resolved market
Will Slovenia participate in Eurovision 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb752788814404235c6d9ea093ddc74f2ed8a17f8ea597b27f7a5f968e3ede04e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,503
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,587
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,503 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 48c | 413.92$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.8 | 199 | 39.2%78 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b4…6709backed Yes | 65c | 307.97$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 72cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Yes | 39c | 245$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.55 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89ca…19acbacked No | 61c | 245$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed No | 79c | 53.86$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +6.2wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7150…6a8abacked Yes | 24c | 53.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd71c…0900backed No | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +214%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcec5…b0fabacked Yes | 70c | 28.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca0…e17abacked No | 77c | 26.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Slovenia participate in Eurovision 2026?this page
- Will Belgium participate in Eurovision 2026?Yes won
- Will Canada participate in Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Germany participate in Eurovision 2026?Yes won
- Will Iceland participate in Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Ireland participate in Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Israel participate in Eurovision 2026?Yes won
- Will Italy participate in Eurovision 2026?Yes won
- Will Kazakhstan participate in Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Moldova participate in Eurovision 2026?Yes won
- Will Netherlands participate in Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will North Macedonia participate in Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Spain participate in Eurovision 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.