Music · resolved market
Will Israel participate in Eurovision 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43021f866a0829edfeba424435a56dc313aff8ec9f69af02166871f95d082a46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,208
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,103
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,208 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ef7…fba9backed No | 0c | 6,200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 5c | 1,551$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.46 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 24c | 1,175$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.23 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 5c | 1,141$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.26 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 12c | 921.96$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.84 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d6f…b384backed No | 18c | 786$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 7c | 676.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked No | 55c | 613.29$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0db…56d5backed Yes | 41c | 578.05$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6c…eb44backed Yes | 66c | 538.34$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.57 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked No | 46c | 487.29$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.26 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e4…1f4abacked No | 10c | 435$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d2…b5f5backed No | 24c | 429.61$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7c…8356backed No | 53c | 375.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.53 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -4.4wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 25c | 374.27$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +305.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed Yes | 66c | 373.99$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.07 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +4.3wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 58c | 342.17$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8add…86d8backed Yes | 59c | 336.93$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf54b…c340backed No | 12c | 326$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa2…453ebacked No | 40c | 304.82$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 65c | 292.03$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.58 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70f5…aceebacked No | 72c | 271.47$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…37e6backed Yes | 37c | 261.82$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.82 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2038…6161backed Yes | 77c | 226.88$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf7…fbeabacked No | 50c | 226$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 11c | 219.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 26c | 209.85$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.29 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 52c | 206.62$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.96 | 199 | 39.2%78 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1970…398dbacked No | 23c | 206.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.93 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe10b…5fe3backed No | 63c | 200$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b4…6709backed Yes | 74c | 196.09$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 72cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae5e…4046backed Yes | 54c | 183.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942b…e25ebacked Yes | 39c | 150$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked Yes | 15c | 147.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.26 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 34cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…11c0backed Yes | 37c | 136.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9259…c2d3backed Yes | 64c | 127.15$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3573…4b4dbacked Yes | 62c | 125.51$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x520d…babebacked No | 80c | 125$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd06…d92dbacked Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x131f…2fedbacked Yes | 78c | 124.52$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5c…7524backed No | 65c | 116.63$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8420…6183backed Yes | 23c | 109.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.99 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +48%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed No | 57c | 105.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.76 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…0e07backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 66c | 86.89$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.16 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec9c…6147backed No | 25c | 86.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 13c | 82.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.7 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a0…faa8backed No | 46c | 76.54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…835dbacked No | 16c | 73.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb03b…62e0backed No | 56c | 71.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked Yes | 39c | 69.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.82 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 68c | 65.93$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc492…11c1backed No | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…0c77backed Yes | 41c | 64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9781…bc2abacked Yes | 35c | 61.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.29per pick | 28cpaid | +99.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f5…8f5bbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc810…3ccdbacked No | 34c | 59.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca0…e17abacked No | 45c | 58.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbb…fd16backed Yes | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 72c | 54.03$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a7…4fdfbacked Yes | 23c | 52.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c7…9f6abacked Yes | 53c | 41.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e79…6c9bbacked No | 30c | 38.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b7…88a9backed Yes | 64c | 31.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef2…6c97backed No | 36c | 31.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba73…e7c5backed No | 67c | 30.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2547…937fbacked Yes | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20f7…635ebacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bee…0b93backed Yes | 45c | 28.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcec5…b0fabacked Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0892…152ebacked Yes | 77c | 19.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 78c | 19.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fd…b1cebacked Yes | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel participate in Eurovision 2026?this page
- Will Belgium participate in Eurovision 2026?Yes won
- Will Canada participate in Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Germany participate in Eurovision 2026?Yes won
- Will Iceland participate in Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Ireland participate in Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Italy participate in Eurovision 2026?Yes won
- Will Kazakhstan participate in Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Moldova participate in Eurovision 2026?Yes won
- Will Netherlands participate in Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will North Macedonia participate in Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Slovenia participate in Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Spain participate in Eurovision 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.