Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on November 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80098e132e711a4bae171c63419a79e1c18fbf0f3dc4a7a67788c0bdd8d28991
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,237
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,567
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,237 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc0c0…c0a5backed Yes | 0c | 10,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0231…45d0backed Yes | 0c | 5,112$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 121 | 24.8%30 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 2c | 3,041$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.19 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,716$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 2,695$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.88 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed Yes | 1c | 2,159$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc75…e4bcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,836$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8864…3ed5backed No | 78c | 1,397$1,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.56 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 1c | 1,136$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 20c | 712.18$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.21 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b0…1f9abacked Yes | 35c | 586.58$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.44 | 275 | 34.2%94 W · 181 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf55…446dbacked Yes | 15c | 369.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed Yes | 6c | 338.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 474 | 17.9%85 W · 389 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 3c | 335$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56f2…1131backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 101 | 35.6%36 W · 65 L | +15.2wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +83%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 12c | 299.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed Yes | 12c | 296.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.83 | 207 | 28%58 W · 149 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8e…b1c7backed Yes | 30c | 270.61$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 27c | 249.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 92 | 33.7%31 W · 61 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 25c | 245.98$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.72 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…8ac4backed Yes | 19c | 232.26$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.89 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6252…495dbacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1d…ff79backed Yes | 18c | 195.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.37 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…4bf3backed Yes | 19c | 190.24$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.37 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 68c | 171.81$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.64 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9614…1d7abacked Yes | 15c | 170.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1578…4b73backed Yes | 13c | 167.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc2…a9e8backed Yes | 26c | 163.18$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 37c | 162.47$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.46 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f33…a8f6backed Yes | 29c | 161.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.57 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d57…9569backed Yes | 39c | 151.43$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ff…5e00backed Yes | 21c | 150.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf707…e8cebacked No | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5778…4581backed No | 73c | 137.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 22c | 131.68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 9c | 125$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 384 | 10.7%41 W · 343 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c04…7031backed Yes | 16c | 104.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6267…3781backed Yes | 20c | 100.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 65c | 91.78$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.58 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61e8…28f7backed Yes | 39c | 77.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked Yes | 26c | 77.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9230…cd99backed Yes | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -62%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 20c | 62.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xeea8…6edbbacked Yes | 17c | 61.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 25c | 60.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5226…8554backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed No | 78c | 51.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8d…1425backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 45.59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe367…47d4backed Yes | 39c | 41.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3009…0f56backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b0…5663backed No | 73c | 39.95$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f21…c693backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +15.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on November 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 50°F or below on November 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 61°F or higher on November 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on November 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on November 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on November 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November 10?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.