Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84366701794731971cb37401645575953142477abe138a9319a12e6081616f15
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,406
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $88,021
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,406 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc0c0…c0a5backed No | 0c | 10,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 0c | 2,853$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 1,731 | 18%311 W · 1,420 L | +73.6wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x709f…635abacked No | 3c | 2,209$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.33 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 5c | 828.35$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked No | 2c | 749.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 384 | 10.7%41 W · 343 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 8c | 587$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.03 | 862 | 30.7%265 W · 597 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed No | 3c | 530$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 474 | 17.9%85 W · 389 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 24c | 521.91$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.19 | 2,839 | 11.2%317 W · 2,522 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b0…1f9abacked Yes | 53c | 359.52$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.24 | 275 | 34.2%94 W · 181 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5778…4581backed Yes | 50c | 315.7$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.4 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 7c | 300.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56f2…1131backed No | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 101 | 35.6%36 W · 65 L | +15.2wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +83%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa627…f636backed Yes | 65c | 230$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 52c | 216.11$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.77 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc88…a949backed Yes | 57c | 199.99$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 29c | 192.86$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.02 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 48c | 176.79$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.23 | 2,506 | 69.7%1,747 W · 759 L | +78.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fc…7de4backed No | 48c | 120$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb61…4eb2backed Yes | 52c | 120$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29b9…6c67backed Yes | 49c | 114$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +102%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2f…e916backed No | 51c | 113.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x064d…9472backed Yes | 79c | 112.22$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaed2…8e93backed Yes | 69c | 112$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 47c | 109.49$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda81…cdb5backed No | 51c | 108$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c9…258ebacked No | 51c | 108$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…22aebacked Yes | 49c | 108$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd544…4266backed Yes | 49c | 108$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3192…9eebbacked No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d2…bce4backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f70…088dbacked No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0e…5ffabacked No | 57c | 91.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5918…33a1backed Yes | 43c | 87.34$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcab9…99d0backed No | 48c | 82.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1578…4b73backed Yes | 60c | 81.19$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d7dbbacked Yes | 56c | 80.85$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.85 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80d…acd7backed Yes | 63c | 79.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.73 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 66c | 76.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8b…1614backed Yes | 55c | 73.15$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2336…9e65backed Yes | 55c | 65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5226…8554backed Yes | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 38c | 55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.15 | 931 | 34%317 W · 614 L | +53.4wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7149…1301backed Yes | 41c | 51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3087…5250backed Yes | 63c | 50.84$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 41c | 50.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99f5…6866backed Yes | 60c | 50.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked No | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77d4…6183backed Yes | 43c | 48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4116…2487backed No | 57c | 48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…ff83backed No | 49c | 47.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 54c | 46.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26af…6729backed Yes | 54c | 45.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe939…b40bbacked Yes | 55c | 45.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…cadabacked Yes | 69c | 43.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…8ac4backed Yes | 57c | 43.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1d…ff79backed Yes | 58c | 42.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4fd…351fbacked Yes | 57c | 41.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5c…6863backed Yes | 53c | 41.24$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5578backed Yes | 67c | 40.56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa9…5797backed Yes | 58c | 39.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 52c | 38.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 238 | 47.9%114 W · 124 L | +12.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 58c | 35.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed No | 59c | 33.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 65cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe81…caaebacked Yes | 63c | 31.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce8…41debacked Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 66c | 30.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7493…01c0backed Yes | 54c | 30.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,244 | 16.7%208 W · 1,036 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebbe…1564backed Yes | 70c | 28.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed Yes | 44c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 207 | 28%58 W · 149 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 44c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 1,658 | 27.7%460 W · 1,198 L | +119.2wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6946…bdeebacked Yes | 55c | 27.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeed4…ba3abacked Yes | 49c | 27.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c8…0a2abacked No | 55c | 27.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…9145backed Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14fc…6b7fbacked No | 49c | 26.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe085…4ff6backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…b3c8backed Yes | 49c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f21…c693backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +15.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x66a7…23efbacked Yes | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 50°F or below on November 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 61°F or higher on November 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on November 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on November 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on November 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on November 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.