TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$971,610
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,134,510

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $971,610 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 613 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked No1c108,540$707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707.418206.6%54 W · 766 L+17.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-47.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf492…3061backed No7c17,847$1,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,234.3930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes17c16,149$2,684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,464.6145715.1%69 W · 388 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes34c11,312$3,802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,509.967966.5%52 W · 744 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+33.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes58c7,845$4,537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,308.3468615.7%108 W · 578 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-40%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No37c7,816$2,861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,860.6454675.1%410 W · 136 L+34.8wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x954b…46b1backed Yes28c7,255$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,255.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+262.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5eb0…5012backed Yes39c7,108$2,797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,311.252825%7 W · 21 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-29.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc304…97b4backed No10c6,700$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6853619.4%7 W · 29 L-0.1wins0.00per pick20cpaid+9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55dd…1cccbacked Yes65c6,689$4,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,348.48616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.5wins-0.41per pick58cpaid-74.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes16c6,512$1,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,458.554816.7%32 W · 449 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3520…f128backed Yes56c6,442$3,618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,823.341225%3 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-56.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked No0c5,740$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7662713.2%83 W · 544 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-52.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes52c5,336$2,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,575.545325.3%28 W · 504 L+1.6wins0.00per pick5cpaid-68.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No1c4,788$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.342,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9991…9480backed Yes26c4,573$1,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,406.388711.5%10 W · 77 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-1.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No36c4,432$1,606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,606.4823464.5%151 W · 83 L+23.0wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+6.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No30c4,259$1,294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,293.8816969.2%117 W · 52 L+17.6wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+13%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes12c4,167$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,666.962097.7%16 W · 193 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-17%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes64c3,994$2,545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,448.9257222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e69…c403backed No61c3,887$2,356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,355.5520%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc76…f087backed No39c3,583$1,405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,405.01728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed No37c3,517$1,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,308.3931242.9%134 W · 178 L+20.0wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-29.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Yes29c3,364$973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,390.92516%4 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-43.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9437…4692backed Yes43c3,259$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,859.43633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-36.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe644…1dffbacked Yes39c3,016$1,169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,847.64540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick29cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe90c…0d37backed No78c3,000$2,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,329.981442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8acf…22e4backed Yes67c2,986$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$986.481553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x663a…5c51backed Yes54c2,563$1,389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,174.564818.8%9 W · 39 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c86…c4f6backed Yes48c2,454$1,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,287.27911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-76.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No78c2,411$1,891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,891.3818531.4%58 W · 127 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-36%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6abd…9d3cbacked Yes24c2,154$516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,638.43933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick22cpaid+41.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40ac…ee4bbacked Yes24c2,050$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,555.51637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes38c2,030$767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,262.7543719.7%86 W · 351 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-44.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cde…b42abacked Yes35c2,000$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,300858.2%7 W · 78 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-38.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No51c1,964$993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992.5143933%145 W · 294 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-38.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes68c1,899$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.1417612.5%22 W · 154 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1647…2187backed Yes22c1,882$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,460.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+346.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed No48c1,579$763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$762.9275122.2%167 W · 584 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-35.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9126…1896backed Yes78c1,552$1,204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.56944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick30cpaid+30.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x74a2…2ab4backed Yes29c1,510$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,069.84818.8%9 W · 39 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c41…57a6backed Yes26c1,500$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1051118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-49.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked No1c1,500$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175249.9%52 W · 472 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+64%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde03…e629backed Yes76c1,489$1,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.687945.6%36 W · 43 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x52e4…7d32backed Yes15c1,376$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,176.312634.6%9 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+26.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb042…14f3backed Yes69c1,364$946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.5810325.2%26 W · 77 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5436…e29ebacked Yes55c1,307$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.381225%3 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf43…b321backed Yes67c1,300$877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4231428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-56.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd166…cdc1backed Yes26c1,267$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$940.462015%3 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-51.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9d2…75a7backed No2c1,213$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes15c1,204$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,026.9965623.2%152 W · 504 L+1.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e55…e157backed Yes49c1,200$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6157524%18 W · 57 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick26cpaid+24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa09b…db3dbacked Yes14c1,150$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9892100%2 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.83per pick17cpaid+509%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x963a…fc4cbacked Yes67c1,118$754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.111540%6 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Yes24c1,100$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$841.52250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+112.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x205e…1925backed No9c1,100$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.61540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4326…c3a8backed Yes52c1,090$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.7217434.5%60 W · 114 L-0.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-18.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4948…2a26backed Yes78c1,085$849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.23414.7%5 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-66%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4b4…efc6backed No67c1,073$723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723.18977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick72cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes8c1,023$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$936.5373215.2%111 W · 621 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8134…305fbacked Yes14c1,007$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$863.466317.5%11 W · 52 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-28.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe53…9917backed Yes16c1,005$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$844.457920.3%16 W · 63 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7847…fc71backed Yes26c1,004$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$744.794311.6%5 W · 38 L-0.1wins0.00per pick12cpaid+54.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes48c1,003$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.7215520%31 W · 124 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-16.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d63…2cbfbacked Yes75c1,000$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8666…d7c7backed No77c1,000$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc781…59d7backed Yes38c1,000$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6202748.1%13 W · 14 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xac96…7ec2backed Yes40c1,000$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes22c1,000$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78054122.7%123 W · 418 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe80f…3354backed Yes80c1,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2002100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+63.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes16c1,000$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84062412.3%77 W · 547 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3806…f4c4backed No5c999.98$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0479…6422backed Yes15c994.51$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$845.335022%11 W · 39 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-36%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a33…28e8backed Yes24c989.97$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$748.983915.4%6 W · 33 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes63c985.15$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.733138.7%12 W · 19 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+44.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x111d…85f7backed Yes38c983.89$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$613.282227.3%6 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-46.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacfe…b2fabacked Yes22c977.78$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$762.675825.9%15 W · 43 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-26.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed No52c961.39$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.91806.3%5 W · 75 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-71.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes36c959.97$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$609.8982714.9%123 W · 704 L+1.9wins0.00per pick15cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2336…9e65backed Yes44c901.99$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.82540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-21%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed No1c900$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.829610.5%31 W · 265 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dd3…4191backed No25c899.97$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.99825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-65.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb186…310cbacked Yes16c899.62$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$759.624226.2%11 W · 31 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b2b…5072backed Yes62c863.59$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.691435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes15c850.54$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$720.475909.2%54 W · 536 L+1.6wins0.00per pick9cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes25c847.59$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$634.411,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd399…d13ebacked No17c844.91$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.63933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+37.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b83…8223backed Yes31c810.55$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$560.551050%5 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes68c800$545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.77828.7%68 W · 714 L-1.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a84…a46bbacked Yes44c800$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4494119.5%8 W · 33 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-34.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf2c…8c84backed Yes15c781.99$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$664.693215.6%5 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick20cpaid+0.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x879f…8417backed Yes26c778.48$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$574.481915.8%3 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-52.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4d3…c5afbacked Yes54c715.69$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.08825%2 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-44.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No59c679.68$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.5631565.1%205 W · 110 L-1.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c32…377fbacked Yes34c668.48$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.21915.8%3 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc09…4461backed No5c658.32$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x162b…06d8backed Yes48c650$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x469a…c784backed No3c650$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.31127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-49.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0655…faf8backed Yes16c625$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5259420.2%19 W · 75 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb73…8890backed Yes27c619.97$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.383010%3 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid-30.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.