TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$220,501
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$161,843

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $220,501 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x807c…f1e3backed Yes0c25,000$25 inLost-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes2c10,000$249 inLost-$249.244816.7%32 W · 449 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes0c5,929$21 inLost-$21.021,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b00…5b7ebacked Yes3c5,740$155 inLost-$154.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91ab…402cbacked Yes0c5,728$11 inLost-$11.461020%2 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick11cpaid+38.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c5,641$51 inLost-$51.272,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2522…f38fbacked Yes3c5,615$140 inLost-$140.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79fb…93adbacked Yes2c5,550$133 inLost-$133.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65bf…aa51backed Yes2c3,920$76 inLost-$75.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d6a…6de3backed Yes1c3,305$20 inLost-$20.12137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick16cpaid-77.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x95b3…9989backed Yes1c3,270$46 inLost-$45.7830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a4e…b38cbacked Yes3c2,896$75 inLost-$75.453810.5%4 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-54.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3605…1ae1backed Yes1c2,100$19 inLost-$1960%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd764…5e02backed Yes0c2,037$10 inLost-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9991…9480backed Yes4c1,803$64 inLost-$63.68711.5%10 W · 77 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-1.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9994…03ddbacked Yes2c1,664$30 inLost-$301124.5%5 W · 107 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-67.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes4c1,531$61 inLost-$60.8473215.2%111 W · 621 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc42e…56b9backed Yes3c1,220$40 inLost-$401915.8%3 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick10cpaid-5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4f3…8692backed Yes1c1,200$16 inLost-$16160%0 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb87f…34a7backed Yes1c944.48$10 inLost-$10714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick7cpaid-66%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x423b…86c1backed Yes3c393.33$12 inLost-$11.81118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-26.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.