Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29dcdd95ed6be7cbf9a864cfd68e5c2b500d8998555663f53e7a2d2d07eb3a99

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 7, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $239,941
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $133,295

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $239,941 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	139,004$310 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$310.01	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed Yes	0c	10,777$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.33	149	14.1%21 W · 128 L	+7.1wins	+0.05per pick	9cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	1c	2,500$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2a1…fe8bbacked Yes	4c	2,269$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.84	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.8wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2dad…5758backed Yes	4c	2,200$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.39	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34e5…d9d0backed Yes	3c	2,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	58	8.6%5 W · 53 L	+2.5wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+67.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9521…766bbacked Yes	2c	1,676$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.24	243	7%17 W · 226 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	1,232$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.35	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe53…9917backed Yes	2c	1,000$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	79	20.3%16 W · 63 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x51d6…3836backed Yes	3c	1,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	150	6%9 W · 141 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	+4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0479…6422backed Yes	2c	1,000$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	50	22%11 W · 39 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-36%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e2…2953backed Yes	3c	1,000$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	221	19.9%44 W · 177 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xacfe…b2fabacked Yes	1c	979.98$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.72	58	25.9%15 W · 43 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	23cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe52e…af63backed Yes	5c	950$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.5	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xd166…cdc1backed Yes	7c	900$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	20	15%3 W · 17 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-51.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	2c	873.99$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.13	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	5c	827.34$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.59	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes	3c	738.96$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.92	80	6.3%5 W · 75 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-71.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ef0…8ea6backed Yes	4c	708.2$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-81.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd590…a04ebacked Yes	6c	640.29$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.49	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac63…b27bbacked Yes	3c	545$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.63	47	10.6%5 W · 42 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	2c	540$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.28	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5546…c8cebacked Yes	2c	528$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.03	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.8wins	+0.09per pick	13cpaid	+101.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d8c…b507backed Yes	11c	442.76$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x91a7…c755backed Yes	4c	380$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.2	24	8.3%2 W · 22 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	3c	360$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.26	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf1e5…31b5backed Yes	8c	357.77$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3453…e0edbacked Yes	4c	350$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.95	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f2…1362backed Yes	6c	350$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.97	48	10.4%5 W · 43 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4b5…4425backed Yes	3c	333.74$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.24	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4948…2a26backed Yes	4c	304.38$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.83	34	14.7%5 W · 29 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-66%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0905…99adbacked Yes	4c	250$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	104	34.6%36 W · 68 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x350e…ed02backed Yes	6c	250$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	30	26.7%8 W · 22 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	23cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47b0…0237backed Yes	5c	230.74$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.65	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	+1.7wins	+0.10per pick	14cpaid	+45.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4c1…241bbacked Yes	8c	217$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.36	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb28c…be33backed Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-44.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2c15…21b3backed Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	7c	192$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.44	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x423b…86c1backed Yes	6c	156.58$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaed2…8e93backed Yes	8c	137.5$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event