TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$273,232
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$132,161

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $273,232 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes0c109,999$170 inLost-$1708206.6%54 W · 766 L+17.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-47.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8652…3ce4backed Yes0c18,376$18 inLost-$18.38540%2 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.23per pick17cpaid+27.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x97e2…a7a5backed Yes2c6,392$128 inLost-$127.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa20f…e5febacked Yes0c3,409$14 inLost-$13.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a35…6c90backed Yes0c2,688$11 inLost-$10.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1152…cba8backed Yes0c2,611$10 inLost-$10.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c2,093$57 inLost-$57.222,1603.9%85 W · 2,075 L+5.9wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes3c1,579$45 inLost-$44.873115.2%111 W · 620 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes1c1,282$14 inLost-$14.1806.3%5 W · 75 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-71.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd42b…48c8backed Yes3c1,000$35 inLost-$34.792468.5%21 W · 225 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-23.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe53…9917backed Yes2c1,000$19 inLost-$197920.3%16 W · 63 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe52e…af63backed Yes5c949.91$47 inLost-$47.51811.1%2 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-33.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes3c830.29$26 inLost-$26.232074.3%9 W · 198 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes1c740.21$10 inLost-$10.2299619.8%197 W · 799 L-15.9wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd590…a04ebacked Yes4c487.79$20 inLost-$2060%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x423b…86c1backed Yes3c446.33$13 inLost-$13.31118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-26.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x644e…ff58backed Yes4c399.99$16 inLost-$15.55812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick6cpaid+96.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x350e…ed02backed Yes4c350$15 inLost-$15.43026.7%8 W · 22 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-47.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb73…8890backed Yes9c216.28$20 inLost-$203010%3 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid-30.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd166…cdc1backed Yes7c215.3$14 inLost-$14.212015%3 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-51.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.