Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1135dda629230378abb04b2725ee55a55572ee01352cf925a0168688a9c76136
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,046,140
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $834,882
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,046,140 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 497 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 4c | 49,075$2,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,105.57 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb0…5012backed Yes | 34c | 35,058$11,765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,764.84 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b66…02edbacked Yes | 16c | 30,243$4,691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,690.64 | 180 | 9.4%17 W · 163 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 6c | 29,653$1,903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,902.88 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 3c | 22,050$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.45 | 782 | 8.7%68 W · 714 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6440…882cbacked Yes | 63c | 22,032$13,963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,963.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.59 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 14c | 19,520$2,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,780.39 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 14c | 17,157$2,419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,419.46 | 481 | 6.7%32 W · 449 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5224…0de8backed Yes | 57c | 17,034$9,659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,658.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 9c | 16,681$1,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,506.25 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked No | 47c | 12,455$5,894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,561.13 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b6…8c0cbacked Yes | 15c | 11,232$1,651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,651.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ff…24a5backed Yes | 1c | 10,203$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d88…9456backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cde…b42abacked Yes | 7c | 10,000$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.87 | 85 | 8.2%7 W · 78 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 5c | 9,870$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.22 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 13c | 8,529$1,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140.6 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 20c | 8,352$1,696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,695.72 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes | 0c | 8,343$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 171 | 5.3%9 W · 162 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes | 17c | 7,196$1,257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,256.62 | 173 | 22.5%39 W · 134 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 7c | 6,582$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.79 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe944…5c72backed Yes | 39c | 6,409$2,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,504.37 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 27c | 6,334$1,703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,702.71 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8acf…22e4backed Yes | 26c | 5,713$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 5,656$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.16 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 66c | 5,257$3,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,761.15 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2d…6130backed Yes | 28c | 4,218$1,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,195.65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d8…fbc5backed Yes | 1c | 4,118$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 90 | 12.2%11 W · 79 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -42%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e69…c403backed Yes | 55c | 4,000$2,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,197.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 80c | 3,986$3,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812.08 | 169 | 69.2%117 W · 52 L | +17.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5032…d300backed Yes | 5c | 3,948$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.72 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 5c | 3,910$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.54 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55dd…1cccbacked Yes | 73c | 3,700$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.41per pick | 58cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 66c | 3,312$2,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,139.59 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 4c | 3,259$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.98 | 53 | 11.3%6 W · 47 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9437…4692backed Yes | 32c | 3,154$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 7c | 3,126$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.84 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 5c | 3,065$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.61 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b4…efc6backed No | 77c | 2,962$2,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.91 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes | 10c | 2,940$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.88 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +9.2wins | +0.37per pick | 11cpaid | +624.5%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…9480backed Yes | 15c | 2,599$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.19 | 87 | 11.5%10 W · 77 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eab…4176backed Yes | 12c | 2,516$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 2c | 2,500$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed No | 69c | 2,491$1,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.73 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd166…cdc1backed Yes | 25c | 2,453$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.64 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked Yes | 12c | 2,421$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.66 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…57a6backed Yes | 8c | 2,366$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.98 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4449…e977backed Yes | 8c | 2,336$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.88 | 590 | 9.2%54 W · 536 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Yes | 3c | 2,231$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.46 | 80 | 31.3%25 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 2c | 2,153$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f26…1f12backed Yes | 42c | 2,105$877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$877.04 | 135 | 17%23 W · 112 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 5c | 2,076$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.08 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 15c | 2,048$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.13 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 68c | 2,028$1,381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.62 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7b…a88dbacked Yes | 57c | 1,974$1,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120.8 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbea3…e34fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,965$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 68 | 14.7%10 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 13c | 1,705$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.23 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5436…e29ebacked Yes | 19c | 1,658$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89d5…b3ecbacked Yes | 14c | 1,633$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 10c | 1,584$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.98 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +140.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e3…49fabacked Yes | 2c | 1,569$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 67 | 14.9%10 W · 57 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88ce…cb62backed Yes | 11c | 1,563$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.71 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 1c | 1,559$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb430…0448backed Yes | 7c | 1,512$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4326…c3a8backed Yes | 23c | 1,462$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.53 | 174 | 34.5%60 W · 114 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 6c | 1,444$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.57 | 230 | 19.1%44 W · 186 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac96…7ec2backed Yes | 44c | 1,440$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.7 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes | 16c | 1,409$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.5 | 212 | 11.8%25 W · 187 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f7…55dcbacked Yes | 22c | 1,335$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.76 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 5c | 1,325$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 149 | 23.5%35 W · 114 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7dd…6a2cbacked Yes | 11c | 1,300$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 131 | 26.7%35 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…d05dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,251$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d87…db7abacked Yes | 22c | 1,207$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e55…e157backed Yes | 24c | 1,150$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.13 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 29c | 1,128$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.31 | 80 | 6.3%5 W · 75 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes | 22c | 1,126$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.51 | 303 | 17.2%52 W · 251 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e75…50d7backed Yes | 5c | 1,126$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda8c…4f04backed Yes | 3c | 1,100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fe…a41abacked Yes | 37c | 1,041$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.01 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x075a…278ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,035$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 28cpaid | +275.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 2c | 1,028$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5801…a4afbacked Yes | 24c | 1,006$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.59 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0479…6422backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec05…b328backed Yes | 49c | 1,000$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe53…9917backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.8 | 79 | 20.3%16 W · 63 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5844…aa7ebacked Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2616…8d3cbacked Yes | 22c | 1,000$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40ac…ee4bbacked No | 44c | 998.99$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.11 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1756…74a4backed Yes | 3c | 971.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe52e…af63backed Yes | 4c | 949.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed No | 58c | 911.98$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.43 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2336…9e65backed Yes | 48c | 902.38$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf43…b321backed Yes | 42c | 900.4$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.31 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3520…f128backed No | 55c | 881.67$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.75 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 6c | 878.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 6c | 874.73$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…05e3backed Yes | 13c | 868.44$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +99.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2b…5072backed Yes | 29c | 865.76$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b11…a0f9backed Yes | 28c | 856.09$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.