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Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,046,140
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$834,882

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,046,140 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 497 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe842…27d6backed Yes4c49,075$2,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,105.575325.3%28 W · 504 L+1.6wins0.00per pick5cpaid-68.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5eb0…5012backed Yes34c35,058$11,765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,764.842825%7 W · 21 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-29.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes16c30,243$4,691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,690.641809.4%17 W · 163 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes6c29,653$1,903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,902.881,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes3c22,050$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.457828.7%68 W · 714 L-1.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6440…882cbacked Yes63c22,032$13,963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,963.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed Yes0c20,000$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.598616.3%14 W · 72 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-44.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes14c19,520$2,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,780.3966222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes14c17,157$2,419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,419.464816.7%32 W · 449 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5224…0de8backed Yes57c17,034$9,659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,658.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes9c16,681$1,506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,506.257966.5%52 W · 744 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+33.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked No47c12,455$5,894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,561.138206.6%54 W · 766 L+17.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-47.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5b6…8c0cbacked Yes15c11,232$1,651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,651.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4ff…24a5backed Yes1c10,203$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-61.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d88…9456backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cde…b42abacked Yes7c10,000$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.87858.2%7 W · 78 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-38.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes5c9,870$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.2228534.4%98 W · 187 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-19.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes13c8,529$1,141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,140.657222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes20c8,352$1,696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,695.7275122.2%167 W · 584 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-35.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes0c8,343$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.031715.3%9 W · 162 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes17c7,196$1,257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,256.6217322.5%39 W · 134 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-24%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes7c6,582$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.793267.1%23 W · 303 L-0.9wins0.00per pick7cpaid-39.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe944…5c72backed Yes39c6,409$2,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,504.371020%2 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-50.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes27c6,334$1,703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,702.7168615.7%108 W · 578 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-40%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8acf…22e4backed Yes26c5,713$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5001553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes10c5,656$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573.162,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No66c5,257$3,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,761.1523464.5%151 W · 83 L+23.0wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+6.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6e2d…6130backed Yes28c4,218$1,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,195.65520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91d8…fbc5backed Yes1c4,118$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249012.2%11 W · 79 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-42%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3e69…c403backed Yes55c4,000$2,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,197.3720%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No80c3,986$3,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$812.0816969.2%117 W · 52 L+17.6wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+13%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5032…d300backed Yes5c3,948$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.72147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick17cpaid-68.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes5c3,910$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.5484616.4%139 W · 707 L+24.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x55dd…1cccbacked Yes73c3,700$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,700616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.5wins-0.41per pick58cpaid-74.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No66c3,312$2,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,139.5954675.1%410 W · 136 L+34.8wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes4c3,259$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.985311.3%6 W · 47 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-29.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9437…4692backed Yes32c3,154$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-36.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes7c3,126$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.8430310.9%33 W · 270 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick10cpaid+22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes5c3,065$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.6156817.4%99 W · 469 L+18.3wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4b4…efc6backed No77c2,962$2,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$672.91977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick72cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes10c2,940$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.882548%12 W · 13 L+9.2wins+0.37per pick11cpaid+624.5%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x9991…9480backed Yes15c2,599$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.198711.5%10 W · 77 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-1.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0eab…4176backed Yes12c2,516$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes2c2,500$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415249.9%52 W · 472 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+64%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed No69c2,491$1,730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$760.7345511.6%53 W · 402 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+104.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd166…cdc1backed Yes25c2,453$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621.642015%3 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-51.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9241…f41cbacked Yes12c2,421$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.666248.4%30 W · 32 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-30.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c41…57a6backed Yes8c2,366$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.981118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-49.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes8c2,336$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.885909.2%54 W · 536 L+1.6wins0.00per pick9cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed Yes3c2,231$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.468031.3%25 W · 55 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-28.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes2c2,153$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.923876.5%25 W · 362 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f26…1f12backed Yes42c2,105$877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$877.0413517%23 W · 112 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-56.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes5c2,076$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.0862412.3%77 W · 547 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes15c2,048$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.1343719.7%86 W · 351 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-44.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No68c2,028$1,381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$646.6299619.8%197 W · 799 L-15.9wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b7b…a88dbacked Yes57c1,974$1,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,120.84436.4%16 W · 28 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbea3…e34fbacked Yes5c1,965$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1056814.7%10 W · 58 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick12cpaid+18.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes13c1,705$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.233138.7%12 W · 19 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+44.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5436…e29ebacked Yes19c1,658$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3201225%3 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x89d5…b3ecbacked Yes14c1,633$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.13616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-77.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes10c1,584$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.983023.3%7 W · 23 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick14cpaid+140.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb5e3…49fabacked Yes2c1,569$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.266714.9%10 W · 57 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+95.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x88ce…cb62backed Yes11c1,563$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.7150%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd427…05adbacked Yes1c1,559$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7726516.6%44 W · 221 L+11.7wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+23.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb430…0448backed Yes7c1,512$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004920.4%10 W · 39 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick17cpaid+17.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4326…c3a8backed Yes23c1,462$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.5317434.5%60 W · 114 L-0.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-18.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Yes6c1,444$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.5723019.1%44 W · 186 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac96…7ec2backed Yes44c1,440$637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$636.7850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes16c1,409$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.521211.8%25 W · 187 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2f7…55dcbacked Yes22c1,335$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.76219.5%2 W · 19 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-59.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes5c1,325$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.214923.5%35 W · 114 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick22cpaid+25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7dd…6a2cbacked Yes11c1,300$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14913126.7%35 W · 96 L-0.6wins0.00per pick27cpaid-37.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bf1…d05dbacked Yes4c1,251$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d87…db7abacked Yes22c1,207$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.65425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick16cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e55…e157backed Yes24c1,150$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.137524%18 W · 57 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick26cpaid+24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes29c1,128$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.31806.3%5 W · 75 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-71.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes22c1,126$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.5130317.2%52 W · 251 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e75…50d7backed Yes5c1,126$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda8c…4f04backed Yes3c1,100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0fe…a41abacked Yes37c1,041$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.01540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x075a…278ebacked Yes3c1,035$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.96560%3 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick28cpaid+275.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes2c1,028$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8282711%91 W · 736 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5801…a4afbacked Yes24c1,006$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.59825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-30.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0479…6422backed Yes9c1,000$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$885022%11 W · 39 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-36%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec05…b328backed Yes49c1,000$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4892317.4%4 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-30.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe53…9917backed Yes15c1,000$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.87920.3%16 W · 63 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5844…aa7ebacked Yes12c1,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick9cpaid+25.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2616…8d3cbacked Yes22c1,000$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2193040%12 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40ac…ee4bbacked No44c998.99$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$556.111637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1756…74a4backed Yes3c971.42$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.811010%1 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-65.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe52e…af63backed Yes4c949.92$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.11811.1%2 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-33.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed No58c911.98$526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.4341017.8%73 W · 337 L+0.3wins0.00per pick18cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2336…9e65backed Yes48c902.38$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.6540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-21%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf43…b321backed Yes42c900.4$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.311428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-56.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3520…f128backed No55c881.67$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.751225%3 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-56.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes6c878.99$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4953817.3%93 W · 445 L-2.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes6c874.73$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.865623.2%152 W · 504 L+1.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e5e…05e3backed Yes13c868.44$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109540%2 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick18cpaid+99.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b2b…5072backed Yes29c865.76$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b11…a0f9backed Yes28c856.09$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24080%0 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.