Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf097675fe5a4f5441ed53ef01ec6139e683f845e3b61326dfb7e23ea06d2697b

Rebuilt 18 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 7, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $370,764
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $224,631

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $370,764 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	136,889$546 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$545.78	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	10c	6,805$681 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$680.51	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	9c	5,856$553 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$552.61	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2628…0a67backed Yes	0c	5,500$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	4,171$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.93	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	8c	3,420$269 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$269.4	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x013b…01cfbacked Yes	12c	3,058$365 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$364.75	84	17.9%15 W · 69 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	12c	3,005$355 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$355	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	6c	2,655$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.6	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	1c	2,500$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2dad…5758backed Yes	11c	1,832$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.19	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	1,620$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.2	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x51d6…3836backed Yes	1c	1,500$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.43	150	6%9 W · 141 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	+4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	1,279$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.18	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x248e…7b12backed Yes	9c	1,111$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	207	17.4%36 W · 171 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa5e4…d847backed Yes	9c	1,089$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.26	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-72.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0545…02a0backed Yes	8c	1,013$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.92	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	-2.3wins	-0.08per pick	16cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0479…6422backed Yes	9c	1,001$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.09	50	22%11 W · 39 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-36%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4dd3…f0efbacked Yes	12c	1,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	53	11.3%6 W · 47 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe53…9917backed Yes	7c	1,000$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	79	20.3%16 W · 63 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Yes	8c	1,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	25	16%4 W · 21 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-43.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xacfe…b2fabacked Yes	4c	980$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.2	58	25.9%15 W · 43 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	23cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe52e…af63backed Yes	5c	950$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.5	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xcf2c…8c84backed Yes	8c	922$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.17	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	20cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd166…cdc1backed Yes	12c	903.17$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107	20	15%3 W · 17 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-51.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	10c	900$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xceed…f8eebacked Yes	12c	866.67$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	251	27.1%68 W · 183 L	-3.6wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x328b…a089backed Yes	12c	840$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.8	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	-2.9wins	-0.09per pick	17cpaid	-65.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4326…c3a8backed Yes	3c	779.95$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.42	174	34.5%60 W · 114 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	1c	769.09$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.49	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Yes	11c	635$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.85	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-47.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd494…deacbacked Yes	10c	561$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.1	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+38.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	2c	554.99$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.44	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	8c	519.5$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf3c2…1398backed Yes	11c	500.4$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.13	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8134…305fbacked Yes	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	63	17.5%11 W · 52 L	-3.1wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd25b…dd82backed Yes	12c	500$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd738…d07ebacked Yes	5c	500$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac63…b27bbacked Yes	10c	438$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.41	47	10.6%5 W · 42 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a84…a46bbacked Yes	7c	400$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.1	41	19.5%8 W · 33 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f2…1362backed Yes	11c	370$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	48	10.4%5 W · 43 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57f8…330abacked Yes	9c	360$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.4	56	16.1%9 W · 47 L	+2.1wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c4c…4dafbacked Yes	10c	353.24$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.32	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-1.4wins	-0.10per pick	30cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9dd3…4191backed Yes	5c	319.38$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.5	8	25%2 W · 6 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-65.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb042…14f3backed Yes	10c	308.33$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.83	103	25.2%26 W · 77 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	11c	300.88$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.1	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3091…f8c4backed Yes	11c	300$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.9wins	+0.12per pick	13cpaid	+57.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x908a…f80dbacked Yes	6c	299.99$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	186	31.7%59 W · 127 L	+6.3wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06bc…2887backed Yes	12c	293.43$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	67	14.9%10 W · 57 L	+3.0wins	+0.05per pick	10cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x30d7…59c1backed Yes	7c	286$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.02	89	22.5%20 W · 69 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	9c	263.86$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.75	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8dce…b2acbacked Yes	10c	250$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	164	17.1%28 W · 136 L	+6.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7847…fc71backed Yes	12c	249.99$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	43	11.6%5 W · 38 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	+54.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	11c	242.16$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.64	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4948…2a26backed Yes	8c	215.81$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.13	34	14.7%5 W · 29 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-66%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xed3f…ab1cbacked Yes	12c	208.59$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	40	27.5%11 W · 29 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16a8…7686backed Yes	15c	202.55$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cd0…0e01backed Yes	8c	200$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	37	13.5%5 W · 32 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+39.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb28c…be33backed Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-44.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd4fa…3c79backed Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b1b…8263backed Yes	11c	199.98$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	+48.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11bc…d9fabacked Yes	13c	196.07$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.49	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a42…f553backed Yes	8c	192.04$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-1.1wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x350e…ed02backed Yes	8c	190$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.2	30	26.7%8 W · 22 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	23cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x900f…4ac5backed Yes	11c	180$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.8	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+0.9wins	+0.08per pick	19cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x47b0…0237backed Yes	11c	176.97$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.7	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	+1.7wins	+0.10per pick	14cpaid	+45.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9bd…0568backed Yes	9c	172.13$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.77	20	15%3 W · 17 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x8b0d…5a0cbacked Yes	12c	166.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-2.1wins	-0.13per pick	19cpaid	-87%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x253e…bca4backed Yes	11c	149.99$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	+66.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4d5f…b380backed Yes	12c	120$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	430	27%116 W · 314 L	+7.1wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5c9…89babacked Yes	17c	117.65$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x253a…7e9bbacked Yes	13c	117.5$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.28	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	12c	115.71$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.73	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff62…1148backed Yes	10c	114.08$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.41	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8d5b…a718backed Yes	12c	100.98$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.12	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x663a…5c51backed Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	48	18.8%9 W · 39 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee1d…fba5backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4c1…241bbacked Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e59…8ec5backed Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	99	5.1%5 W · 94 L	-5.8wins	-0.06per pick	11cpaid	-56.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8003…870abacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bd5…d3acbacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x644e…ff58backed Yes	12c	99.99$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	6cpaid	+96.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ff6…1855backed Yes	14c	72$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.08	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event