Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e96c5b2989aa8c4a0fee42357b4783c456c2ec6b5e76bf19ed8530529df4576

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 7, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $311,334
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $125,045

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $311,334 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	139,000$374 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$374	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8433…5196backed Yes	0c	14,911$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.91	22	0%0 W · 22 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	7c	7,483$507 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$507.04	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34e5…d9d0backed Yes	3c	3,333$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.99	58	8.6%5 W · 53 L	+2.5wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+67.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2dad…5758backed Yes	8c	2,714$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$206.2	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	1c	2,500$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.5	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	2,057$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.01	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x248e…7b12backed Yes	5c	1,849$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	207	17.4%36 W · 171 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4948…2a26backed Yes	3c	1,683$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.18	34	14.7%5 W · 29 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-66%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9521…766bbacked Yes	5c	1,654$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.72	243	7%17 W · 226 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes	5c	1,605$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.73	80	6.3%5 W · 75 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-71.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	1c	1,462$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.24	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	1,336$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.2	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe53…9917backed Yes	4c	1,107$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.15	79	20.3%16 W · 63 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0545…02a0backed Yes	4c	1,107$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.41	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	-2.3wins	-0.08per pick	16cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0479…6422backed Yes	5c	1,005$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.63	50	22%11 W · 39 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-36%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5e4…d847backed Yes	9c	1,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-72.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacfe…b2fabacked Yes	2c	980$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.62	58	25.9%15 W · 43 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	23cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe52e…af63backed Yes	5c	950$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.5	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xd166…cdc1backed Yes	10c	900$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87	20	15%3 W · 17 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-51.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x908a…f80dbacked Yes	2c	846$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.23	186	31.7%59 W · 127 L	+6.3wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	6c	824.53$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.92	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd42b…48c8backed Yes	6c	800$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.5	246	8.5%21 W · 225 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9833…3f04backed Yes	13c	792.65$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.99	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x35e2…2953backed Yes	6c	785.71$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.14	221	19.9%44 W · 177 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x328b…a089backed Yes	9c	600$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	-2.9wins	-0.09per pick	17cpaid	-65.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6fc2…7d65backed Yes	4c	579.1$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.4	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+0.8wins	+0.07per pick	20cpaid	+20.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76c4…bbc5backed Yes	5c	550.01$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+1.0wins	+0.13per pick	12cpaid	+32%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f2…1362backed Yes	6c	549.16$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.44	48	10.4%5 W · 43 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes	4c	521$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.78	207	4.3%9 W · 198 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4aa…9cabbacked Yes	5c	500$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x6c4c…4dafbacked Yes	9c	444$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.96	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-1.4wins	-0.10per pick	30cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	6c	437.47$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.25	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa09…1fbebacked Yes	7c	428.57$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-50%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Yes	4c	401$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.24	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-47.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x91a7…c755backed Yes	4c	380$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.2	24	8.3%2 W · 22 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ef0…8ea6backed Yes	7c	373.88$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-81.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd25b…dd82backed Yes	8c	359.94$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.8	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c67…8860backed Yes	14c	354.23$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	38	31.6%12 W · 26 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x644e…ff58backed Yes	6c	350$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.75	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	6cpaid	+96.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	5c	300$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3c2…1398backed Yes	11c	250$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.5	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x900f…4ac5backed Yes	8c	239.99$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.2	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+0.9wins	+0.08per pick	19cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x350e…ed02backed Yes	7c	220$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.4	30	26.7%8 W · 22 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	23cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3285…745fbacked Yes	5c	219.1$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.78	40	5%2 W · 38 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	9c	200$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb28c…be33backed Yes	8c	199.99$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-44.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b1b…8263backed Yes	6c	199.97$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	+48.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	8c	198.61$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x47b0…0237backed Yes	8c	166.21$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.63	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	+1.7wins	+0.10per pick	14cpaid	+45.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa5c9…89babacked Yes	15c	134.07$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc92e…343dbacked Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-1.5wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d5f…b380backed Yes	9c	120$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	430	27%116 W · 314 L	+7.1wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdc2…af19backed Yes	15c	100.68$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	28cpaid	-57.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x472c…a000backed Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4c1…241bbacked Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e59…8ec5backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	99	5.1%5 W · 94 L	-5.8wins	-0.06per pick	11cpaid	-56.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event