Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9dbaad63f33c98bb52723155638c4db48b1a5fd6be7cc852f6135bfbbab10dba

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 7, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $274,652
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $118,097

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $274,652 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	110,000$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb654…beedbacked Yes	1c	6,950$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.55	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes	0c	5,014$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.03	240	1.7%4 W · 236 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+675.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51d6…3836backed Yes	1c	5,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	150	6%9 W · 141 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	+4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf57c…c7b6backed Yes	0c	2,805$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.22	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa774…5f81backed Yes	1c	2,774$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.87	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	3c	1,927$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.74	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	1,674$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.24	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	1,615$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.07	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ef0…8ea6backed Yes	1c	1,595$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-81.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb73…8890backed Yes	7c	1,459$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	30	10%3 W · 27 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes	1c	1,303$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.46	80	6.3%5 W · 75 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-71.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	2c	1,103$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.83	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x529b…9bc8backed Yes	4c	900$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2b8c…a9e6backed Yes	4c	900$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7838…f988backed Yes	4c	880$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.2	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xda85…c895backed Yes	4c	880$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.2	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x06a6…f428backed Yes	4c	850$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x743f…43f6backed Yes	4c	850$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x72a7…697ebacked Yes	4c	850$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2dfd…e29abacked Yes	4c	850$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbee5…1d16backed Yes	4c	850$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdfcf…e975backed Yes	4c	850$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x595f…fffbbacked Yes	4c	850$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b7f…fbdebacked Yes	4c	850$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef5f…c02fbacked Yes	4c	830$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.2	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b30…2fd1backed Yes	4c	800$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9df8…fc52backed Yes	4c	800$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes	3c	499.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	207	4.3%9 W · 198 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0905…99adbacked Yes	4c	491.06$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	104	34.6%36 W · 68 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x350e…ed02backed Yes	3c	470$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.04	30	26.7%8 W · 22 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	23cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x644e…ff58backed Yes	3c	459.94$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.58	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	6cpaid	+96.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa09…1fbebacked Yes	3c	354.25$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.64	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-50%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event