TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x1b2b…5072

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
38
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 53 out of 100; worst Tweets at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jan 14, 2026, EST1435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+74.7%+$74.7
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$2,978Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$2,978.03
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$1,811Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+161.8%+$2,930.1
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$669Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$668.99
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$516Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+113.2%+$583.99
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$326Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$326
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$208Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$208
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$387Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST+158.6%+$613.05
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$569Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$569.08
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$532Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST+62.4%+$331.69
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST-100%-$250
All 14 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2025, EST540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-57.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+216.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$149Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+532.9%+$791.75
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$197.99
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$48.97
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+37%+$7.4
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$100
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 23, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the fight be won by submission?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$40
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Makhachev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+35.1%+$70.27
All 2 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Dec 15, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Netherlands participate in Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST+45%+$44.97
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.