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Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,270,889
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$887,317

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,270,889 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 761 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe842…27d6backed Yes1c127,925$1,626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,626.185325.3%28 W · 504 L+1.6wins0.00per pick5cpaid-68.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes3c36,000$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9208206.6%54 W · 766 L+17.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-47.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes61c29,606$17,982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,981.866322.3%148 W · 515 L-34.5wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-58.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes15c27,648$4,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,150.424816.7%32 W · 449 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes5c27,133$1,399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,398.78008.8%70 W · 730 L-0.5wins0.00per pick9cpaid-36.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes45c24,395$11,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,044.911809.4%17 W · 163 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb2a…6bfebacked Yes0c12,824$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes12c11,539$1,344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,343.529331.7%93 W · 200 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes19c10,265$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0002466.1%15 W · 231 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-53.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eef…76bbbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fa6…4465backed Yes4c10,000$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4051811.1%2 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+413.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes31c9,683$2,967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,966.947966.5%52 W · 744 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+33.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No38c9,321$3,505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,816.2723464.5%151 W · 83 L+23.0wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+6.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6e60…9e3fbacked Yes58c9,097$5,283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,282.853721.6%8 W · 29 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes13c8,347$1,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,056.3750919.3%98 W · 411 L-1.4wins0.00per pick20cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes71c8,092$5,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,770.0928534.4%98 W · 187 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-19.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes42c7,840$3,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,265.1759225.3%150 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes12c7,701$945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945.4475122.2%167 W · 584 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-35.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes1c7,500$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1054165.3%22 W · 394 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+158.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes79c6,183$4,853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,853.415311.3%6 W · 47 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-29.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x913c…d100backed Yes65c6,169$4,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,010.142850%14 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes12c6,083$719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$718.992968.1%24 W · 272 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+52.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0551…b427backed Yes4c6,029$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2623545.7%16 W · 19 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b2b…5072backed Yes49c6,028$2,978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,978.031435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0744…b4cbbacked Yes17c5,913$1,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,015.67313.7%10 W · 63 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-22%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No34c5,574$1,915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,658.9216969.2%117 W · 52 L+17.6wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+13%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes17c5,507$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92021211.8%25 W · 187 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked No11c5,504$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,904.062548%12 W · 13 L+9.2wins+0.37per pick11cpaid+624.5%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes18c5,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90045715.1%69 W · 388 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes2c5,000$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.81873.2%6 W · 181 L-0.2wins0.00per pick3cpaid+278.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes19c4,846$910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$909.672068.7%18 W · 188 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-42.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b69…16d4backed Yes16c4,823$764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$763.6722828.1%64 W · 164 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-20.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6aca…c734backed Yes53c4,729$2,486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,485.56322.2%14 W · 49 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33d4…c167backed Yes12c4,500$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52517723.2%41 W · 136 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb6b…943abacked Yes53c4,454$2,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,375.393836.8%14 W · 24 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa956…666fbacked Yes45c4,360$1,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,980.126521.5%14 W · 51 L-5.7wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-53%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf529…4fc0backed Yes17c4,092$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.415514.5%8 W · 47 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-28.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x790e…989bbacked Yes12c4,084$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.886722.4%15 W · 52 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfa6…da4fbacked Yes30c4,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2003215.6%5 W · 27 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-33.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes75c3,851$2,895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,895.2158922.1%130 W · 459 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-41.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes32c3,826$1,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,234.4569615.7%109 W · 587 L-17.3wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-34.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x31b3…c41fbacked Yes44c3,733$1,634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,633.72917.2%5 W · 24 L-3.4wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-64.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x84ec…daabbacked Yes18c3,524$637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.333514.3%5 W · 30 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-11.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd317…025abacked No30c3,429$1,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,407.9622323.3%52 W · 171 L+0.9wins0.00per pick23cpaid-23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes22c3,422$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$769.7418116%29 W · 152 L+0.1wins0.00per pick16cpaid-23.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No71c3,417$2,413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,004.2955675.2%418 W · 138 L+35.4wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+3.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes69c3,407$2,337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,336.8112112.4%15 W · 106 L-10.9wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-58.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed No3c3,264$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,154.971913.7%7 W · 184 L-0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes26c3,259$854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8544869.7%47 W · 439 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x729e…e23ebacked Yes33c3,085$1,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,004.3523831.1%74 W · 164 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed Yes48c2,982$1,433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,433.52470.8%17 W · 7 L+3.3wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+17%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7a3e…d34ebacked No7c2,976$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,767.852100%2 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.95per pick5cpaid+2,147.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x098c…e4e1backed Yes42c2,852$1,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,184.779816.3%16 W · 82 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a58…7e08backed Yes21c2,500$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5251409.3%13 W · 127 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick10cpaid+642.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc07…7cb3backed Yes78c2,450$1,921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,921.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick65cpaid-56.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e6…fb8ebacked Yes51c2,436$1,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2402810.7%3 W · 25 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-66.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x42f9…5d7abacked Yes52c2,231$1,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1559620.8%20 W · 76 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick18cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d16…12d0backed Yes6c2,200$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129175.9%1 W · 16 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-57.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ac3…16f6backed Yes78c2,200$1,716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,715.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+94.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x701c…4615backed Yes50c2,171$1,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,085.386417.2%11 W · 53 L+0.2wins0.00per pick17cpaid-18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4f9…f619backed Yes75c2,100$1,582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,581.992222.7%5 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-35.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes13c2,058$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25942312.5%53 W · 370 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes9c2,043$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.161185.1%6 W · 112 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick4cpaid+94.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac88…9b35backed Yes3c2,010$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.2666.1%4 W · 62 L-0.3wins0.00per pick6cpaid-49%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes43c2,000$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.996913%9 W · 60 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick11cpaid+13.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdddc…9eb0backed Yes17c1,907$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.061915.8%3 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd20c…81b5backed Yes70c1,900$1,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,330633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-48.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x03d0…d647backed Yes10c1,872$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.435543.6%24 W · 31 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7db…feb0backed Yes56c1,834$1,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,028.32616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick33cpaid+66.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa553…3eaebacked Yes11c1,831$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.752020%4 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8114…085abacked Yes25c1,826$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.9912714.2%18 W · 109 L+0.4wins0.00per pick14cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8c6…5b8bbacked Yes18c1,817$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.3311221.4%24 W · 88 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc49…aa14backed Yes14c1,790$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.491225%3 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+136.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5300…d039backed Yes29c1,739$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.286412.5%8 W · 56 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick7cpaid+83.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x16a0…2f60backed Yes76c1,701$1,297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,297.381553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93d7…7423backed Yes39c1,687$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660.354010%4 W · 36 L-4.4wins-0.11per pick21cpaid-62.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x05d9…f4dabacked Yes12c1,670$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-55.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbed7…c0cfbacked Yes12c1,667$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick15cpaid+106.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x62d7…7e85backed Yes13c1,610$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.72897.9%7 W · 82 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-42.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5be1…45e3backed Yes9c1,592$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501513.3%2 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-34.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe572…6241backed Yes9c1,553$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.23312.1%4 W · 29 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77ac…47c2backed Yes13c1,538$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002718.5%5 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-50.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2a9…4cbdbacked Yes44c1,520$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$675.181926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-26.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x66a1…c2f2backed Yes73c1,492$1,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,093.611811%13 W · 105 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3103…ea70backed Yes78c1,477$1,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,153.2813926.6%37 W · 102 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x963a…fc4cbacked Yes37c1,470$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5421540%6 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb042…14f3backed No42c1,429$606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$823.6810325.2%26 W · 77 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f55…73b6backed Yes30c1,400$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4221118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick34cpaid-67.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes55c1,394$764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$764.0410817.6%19 W · 89 L-0.2wins0.00per pick18cpaid+58.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c16…bbcbbacked Yes29c1,380$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3996114.8%9 W · 52 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-20.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe96…65acbacked Yes44c1,371$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.21040%4 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c54…1d08backed Yes15c1,336$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.486418.8%12 W · 52 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed Yes35c1,330$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.973525.7%9 W · 26 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7795…1db8backed Yes48c1,309$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.624822.9%11 W · 37 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-21.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fed…d914backed Yes48c1,294$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.845715.8%9 W · 48 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-54.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x63d1…27dfbacked Yes16c1,269$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x20f2…a981backed Yes16c1,250$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+34.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf243…5fb4backed Yes49c1,250$618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.256415.6%10 W · 54 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-57.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed No73c1,250$918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.482512%3 W · 22 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-67.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes10c1,200$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12031317.3%54 W · 259 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.