Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd61b9865e4254a50be7fdd06288e4ae45071338920edf5eb255858c323866da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,270,889
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $887,317
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,270,889 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 761 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 1c | 127,925$1,626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,626.18 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 3c | 36,000$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 61c | 29,606$17,982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,981.8 | 663 | 22.3%148 W · 515 L | -34.5wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 15c | 27,648$4,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,150.42 | 481 | 6.7%32 W · 449 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 5c | 27,133$1,399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,398.7 | 800 | 8.8%70 W · 730 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b66…02edbacked Yes | 45c | 24,395$11,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,044.91 | 180 | 9.4%17 W · 163 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2a…6bfebacked Yes | 0c | 12,824$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 12c | 11,539$1,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,343.5 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes | 19c | 10,265$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 246 | 6.1%15 W · 231 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eef…76bbbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa6…4465backed Yes | 4c | 10,000$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +413.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 31c | 9,683$2,967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,966.94 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 38c | 9,321$3,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,816.27 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6e60…9e3fbacked Yes | 58c | 9,097$5,283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,282.85 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes | 13c | 8,347$1,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,056.37 | 509 | 19.3%98 W · 411 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 71c | 8,092$5,770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,770.09 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 42c | 7,840$3,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,265.17 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 12c | 7,701$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945.44 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 1c | 7,500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 79c | 6,183$4,853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,853.41 | 53 | 11.3%6 W · 47 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…d100backed Yes | 65c | 6,169$4,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,010.14 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac83…eaaabacked Yes | 12c | 6,083$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.99 | 296 | 8.1%24 W · 272 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0551…b427backed Yes | 4c | 6,029$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2b…5072backed Yes | 49c | 6,028$2,978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,978.03 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0744…b4cbbacked Yes | 17c | 5,913$1,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,015.6 | 73 | 13.7%10 W · 63 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 34c | 5,574$1,915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,658.92 | 169 | 69.2%117 W · 52 L | +17.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes | 17c | 5,507$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920 | 212 | 11.8%25 W · 187 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 11c | 5,504$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,904.06 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +9.2wins | +0.37per pick | 11cpaid | +624.5%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes | 18c | 5,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 457 | 15.1%69 W · 388 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 2c | 5,000$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.8 | 187 | 3.2%6 W · 181 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | +278.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3986…01fdbacked Yes | 19c | 4,846$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$909.67 | 206 | 8.7%18 W · 188 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b69…16d4backed Yes | 16c | 4,823$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.67 | 228 | 28.1%64 W · 164 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6aca…c734backed Yes | 53c | 4,729$2,486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,485.5 | 63 | 22.2%14 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33d4…c167backed Yes | 12c | 4,500$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 177 | 23.2%41 W · 136 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6b…943abacked Yes | 53c | 4,454$2,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,375.39 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa956…666fbacked Yes | 45c | 4,360$1,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,980.12 | 65 | 21.5%14 W · 51 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -53%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf529…4fc0backed Yes | 17c | 4,092$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.41 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x790e…989bbacked Yes | 12c | 4,084$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.88 | 67 | 22.4%15 W · 52 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa6…da4fbacked Yes | 30c | 4,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 75c | 3,851$2,895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,895.21 | 589 | 22.1%130 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 32c | 3,826$1,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,234.45 | 696 | 15.7%109 W · 587 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31b3…c41fbacked Yes | 44c | 3,733$1,634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,633.7 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84ec…daabbacked Yes | 18c | 3,524$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.33 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked No | 30c | 3,429$1,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,407.96 | 223 | 23.3%52 W · 171 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes | 22c | 3,422$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.74 | 181 | 16%29 W · 152 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 71c | 3,417$2,413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,004.29 | 556 | 75.2%418 W · 138 L | +35.4wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99fd…9028backed Yes | 69c | 3,407$2,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,336.81 | 121 | 12.4%15 W · 106 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa002…e840backed No | 3c | 3,264$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,154.97 | 191 | 3.7%7 W · 184 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 26c | 3,259$854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$854 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x729e…e23ebacked Yes | 33c | 3,085$1,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,004.35 | 238 | 31.1%74 W · 164 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed Yes | 48c | 2,982$1,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,433.5 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3e…d34ebacked No | 7c | 2,976$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,767.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.95per pick | 5cpaid | +2,147.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…e4e1backed Yes | 42c | 2,852$1,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,184.77 | 98 | 16.3%16 W · 82 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a58…7e08backed Yes | 21c | 2,500$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 140 | 9.3%13 W · 127 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +642.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc07…7cb3backed Yes | 78c | 2,450$1,921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,921.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e6…fb8ebacked Yes | 51c | 2,436$1,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,240 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42f9…5d7abacked Yes | 52c | 2,231$1,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,155 | 96 | 20.8%20 W · 76 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d16…12d0backed Yes | 6c | 2,200$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac3…16f6backed Yes | 78c | 2,200$1,716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,715.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x701c…4615backed Yes | 50c | 2,171$1,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,085.38 | 64 | 17.2%11 W · 53 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…f619backed Yes | 75c | 2,100$1,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,581.99 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…4466backed Yes | 13c | 2,058$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259 | 423 | 12.5%53 W · 370 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 9c | 2,043$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.16 | 118 | 5.1%6 W · 112 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac88…9b35backed Yes | 3c | 2,010$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 66 | 6.1%4 W · 62 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes | 43c | 2,000$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.99 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdddc…9eb0backed Yes | 17c | 1,907$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.06 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd20c…81b5backed Yes | 70c | 1,900$1,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,330 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 10c | 1,872$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.43 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…feb0backed Yes | 56c | 1,834$1,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,028.32 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa553…3eaebacked Yes | 11c | 1,831$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.75 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8114…085abacked Yes | 25c | 1,826$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.99 | 127 | 14.2%18 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c6…5b8bbacked Yes | 18c | 1,817$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.33 | 112 | 21.4%24 W · 88 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc49…aa14backed Yes | 14c | 1,790$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.49 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +136.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5300…d039backed Yes | 29c | 1,739$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.28 | 64 | 12.5%8 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16a0…2f60backed Yes | 76c | 1,701$1,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,297.38 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 39c | 1,687$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.35 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05d9…f4dabacked Yes | 12c | 1,670$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed7…c0cfbacked Yes | 12c | 1,667$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +106.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62d7…7e85backed Yes | 13c | 1,610$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.72 | 89 | 7.9%7 W · 82 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5be1…45e3backed Yes | 9c | 1,592$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe572…6241backed Yes | 9c | 1,553$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.2 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77ac…47c2backed Yes | 13c | 1,538$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a9…4cbdbacked Yes | 44c | 1,520$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.18 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…c2f2backed Yes | 73c | 1,492$1,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,093.6 | 118 | 11%13 W · 105 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3103…ea70backed Yes | 78c | 1,477$1,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,153.28 | 139 | 26.6%37 W · 102 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x963a…fc4cbacked Yes | 37c | 1,470$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…14f3backed No | 42c | 1,429$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$823.68 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f55…73b6backed Yes | 30c | 1,400$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 55c | 1,394$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.04 | 108 | 17.6%19 W · 89 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c16…bbcbbacked Yes | 29c | 1,380$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe96…65acbacked Yes | 44c | 1,371$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c54…1d08backed Yes | 15c | 1,336$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.48 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Yes | 35c | 1,330$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.97 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Yes | 48c | 1,309$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.62 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fed…d914backed Yes | 48c | 1,294$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.84 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63d1…27dfbacked Yes | 16c | 1,269$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20f2…a981backed Yes | 16c | 1,250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf243…5fb4backed Yes | 49c | 1,250$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.25 | 64 | 15.6%10 W · 54 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 73c | 1,250$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.48 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ca…450abacked Yes | 10c | 1,200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 313 | 17.3%54 W · 259 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.