Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabd93214973e8ecfadda04fdda0e61102b2e4be866c93dfe1b9852d5bff8ae79

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 4, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $667,012
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $394,371

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $667,012 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 356 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	1c	30,317$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$206.82	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	3c	12,717$341 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$340.78	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	11,460$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.04	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4081…cfb0backed Yes	1c	10,395$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.08	134	7.5%10 W · 124 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+27%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	14c	10,000$1,400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,399.94	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	7c	9,924$693 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$692.69	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0654…fabdbacked Yes	5c	8,640$392 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$391.7	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-1.5wins	-0.11per pick	34cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	19c	7,964$1,476 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,476.4	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	8c	7,113$562 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$561.93	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5095…93eebacked Yes	26c	5,660$1,457 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,457.4	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+0.9wins	+0.12per pick	26cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	7c	4,317$293 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$293.3	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	14c	4,203$568 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$567.69	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	4,102$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.38	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2982…5a7cbacked Yes	24c	4,100$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	31	25.8%8 W · 23 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	10c	4,009$386 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$386.27	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	11c	4,001$457 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$456.93	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc47f…94b4backed Yes	26c	3,900$1,014 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,014	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63d1…27dfbacked No	79c	3,800$2,993 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$806.9	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.08per pick	52cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	10c	3,500$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$360	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac88…9b35backed Yes	14c	3,214$465 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$464.96	66	6.1%4 W · 62 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-49%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1bdd…e736backed Yes	8c	3,151$259 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$259.23	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-28%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes	11c	3,089$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350.48	86	16.3%14 W · 72 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa40a…0615backed Yes	15c	3,000$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450	50	18%9 W · 41 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf529…4fc0backed Yes	18c	2,706$489 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$489.43	55	14.5%8 W · 47 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6aca…c734backed Yes	18c	2,500$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450	63	22.2%14 W · 49 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a9f…7482backed Yes	23c	2,447$563 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$562.53	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	79c	2,329$1,848 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$480.08	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	10c	2,304$228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$227.52	186	8.6%16 W · 170 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03d0…d647backed Yes	22c	2,296$514 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$514.46	55	43.6%24 W · 31 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	11c	2,292$246 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245.8	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	17c	2,227$384 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$384.04	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x339f…79f0backed Yes	20c	2,105$411 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$410.89	54	13%7 W · 47 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfa6…da4fbacked Yes	14c	2,000$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	25c	1,982$505 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$505	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	24c	1,900$451 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$451	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	7c	1,890$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.2	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	9c	1,870$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.28	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	1,746$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.98	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8114…085abacked Yes	5c	1,524$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.83	127	14.2%18 W · 109 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d85…4c7abacked Yes	19c	1,500$282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$281.72	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb9f1…5840backed Yes	16c	1,500$246 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$246.5	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-1.1wins	-0.07per pick	20cpaid	-63.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	2c	1,500$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67ff…721fbacked Yes	19c	1,400$259 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$259	79	12.7%10 W · 69 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe572…6241backed Yes	14c	1,399$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.11	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-25%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf98a…0e35backed Yes	15c	1,390$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203	22	18.2%4 W · 18 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes	13c	1,365$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.42	127	12.6%16 W · 111 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+56.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaee1…77fcbacked Yes	10c	1,364$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0234…62dabacked Yes	11c	1,325$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0927…6486backed Yes	15c	1,300$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195	145	15.2%22 W · 123 L	-8.5wins	-0.06per pick	21cpaid	-55.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb19b…478dbacked Yes	18c	1,274$231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231.24	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-1.4wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f2c…86bfbacked Yes	8c	1,250$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-1.9wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x74a2…2ab4backed Yes	15c	1,171$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175	48	18.8%9 W · 39 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1ea…8ad6backed Yes	18c	1,152$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-2.3wins	-0.17per pick	25cpaid	-67.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1f30…6b5cbacked Yes	19c	1,114$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$211.66	23	26.1%6 W · 17 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	31cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6af1…c00cbacked Yes	17c	1,067$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.49	29	3.4%1 W · 28 L	-3.5wins	-0.12per pick	15cpaid	-80.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8e40…5f04backed Yes	29c	1,051$305 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$304.83	31	29%9 W · 22 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	33cpaid	-47.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed No	78c	1,012$787 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$225.67	312	42.9%134 W · 178 L	+20.0wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf8c6…5b8bbacked Yes	20c	1,001$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203	112	21.4%24 W · 88 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes	5c	1,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	52	1.9%1 W · 51 L	-3.2wins	-0.06per pick	8cpaid	-80.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x43cf…88fabacked Yes	17c	1,000$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	-1.9wins	-0.09per pick	13cpaid	-93.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d16…12d0backed Yes	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes	6c	999.99$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	69	13%9 W · 60 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb10a…ab03backed Yes	20c	999.99$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	38	18.4%7 W · 31 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68c9…4c60backed Yes	11c	997.83$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.68	87	42.5%37 W · 50 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1b69…16d4backed Yes	26c	972.25$254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$253.96	223	27.8%62 W · 161 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	6c	955.4$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.96	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe95f…1a57backed Yes	10c	900$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	26cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	13c	899.97$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x790e…989bbacked Yes	19c	899.21$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.48	67	22.4%15 W · 52 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	25cpaid	-3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe63d…87fcbacked Yes	13c	830$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.6	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+122.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1420…8f14backed Yes	22c	820.02$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.3	66	27.3%18 W · 48 L	-3.2wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9310…5e55backed Yes	21c	816.86$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.16	50	18%9 W · 41 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc0d…8bcabacked Yes	12c	812$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	56	17.9%10 W · 46 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb59f…dbedbacked Yes	18c	802.98$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143	27	14.8%4 W · 23 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	13cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ab8…e88ebacked Yes	25c	800$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.34per pick	34cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd822…3127backed Yes	2c	800$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.8	89	24.7%22 W · 67 L	+4.9wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+25.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd50a…0eb1backed Yes	14c	786.5$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.61	33	18.2%6 W · 27 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	14cpaid	+53.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c54…2d86backed Yes	4c	776.85$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.06	42	11.9%5 W · 37 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+158.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3a3…d89bbacked Yes	14c	719.91$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.59	33	21.2%7 W · 26 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	19c	718.11$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.08	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3d8f…75e6backed Yes	16c	700$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112	43	20.9%9 W · 34 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb5fa…fe6ebacked Yes	14c	699.76$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	53	18.9%10 W · 43 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-38.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xda81…ed2cbacked Yes	10c	684.6$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	19cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2127…37f2backed No	76c	668$505 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$163	108	66.7%72 W · 36 L	+4.8wins	+0.04per pick	62cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4250…5c32backed Yes	13c	652.68$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85	68	11.8%8 W · 60 L	-5.4wins	-0.08per pick	20cpaid	-49.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x442d…523ebacked Yes	3c	651.61$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.37	20	0%0 W · 20 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x729e…e23ebacked Yes	31c	648.51$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	238	31.1%74 W · 164 L	-4.9wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe372…e651backed Yes	25c	628.42$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.72	34	20.6%7 W · 27 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1cd…8bc0backed Yes	15c	625.43$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.14	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-44.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x980d…4a2bbacked No	79c	609.44$481 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$128.48	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.10per pick	43cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x908a…f80dbacked Yes	14c	599.65$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.76	186	31.7%59 W · 127 L	+6.3wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf8e…e3cebacked Yes	19c	589.55$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.6	79	16.5%13 W · 66 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf333…7ff4backed Yes	17c	588.24$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	31	25.8%8 W · 23 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	31cpaid	-41.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0dd…45e7backed Yes	16c	558.42$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.3	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	-2.5wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-45.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b9d…68dbbacked Yes	18c	555.56$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4be…58f2backed Yes	19c	549.2$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.87	53	17%9 W · 44 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-48.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed Yes	18c	525.75$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.9	89	24.7%22 W · 67 L	-8.0wins	-0.09per pick	34cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x00de…3e7dbacked Yes	25c	508$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127	43	37.2%16 W · 27 L	+2.1wins	+0.05per pick	32cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9ff…5e00backed Yes	12c	500$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	38	15.8%6 W · 32 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16a0…2f60backed No	76c	500$380 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event