Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1d6004e93f576e38c5ffdd544c4a69e7b5ed2ded0930bdae66056d55440f20d

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 5, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,251,155
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $745,806

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,251,155 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 311 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes	6c	66,891$3,740 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,740.36	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	2c	63,388$1,063 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,063.1	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	6c	53,495$3,077 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,077.14	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6349…2a82backed Yes	0c	30,000$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	+76%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	5c	29,053$1,482 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,482.19	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	8c	28,967$2,385 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,385.17	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes	5c	21,508$1,006 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,005.62	155	20%31 W · 124 L	+6.0wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0744…b4cbbacked Yes	9c	14,632$1,311 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,311.04	73	13.7%10 W · 63 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-22%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked Yes	5c	14,403$706 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$706.35	248	73%181 W · 67 L	+15.9wins	+0.06per pick	67cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	10c	14,150$1,407 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,407.09	186	8.6%16 W · 170 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	8c	13,968$1,064 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,064.47	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d16…12d0backed Yes	1c	13,000$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes	9c	12,945$1,109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,109.06	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	16c	12,500$1,943 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,942.54	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	6c	11,038$672 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$672.39	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	1c	10,550$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.45	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	8c	9,948$761 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$761.23	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	5c	9,419$510 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$509.98	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	0c	9,400$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.14	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	4c	9,385$369 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$368.57	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	7c	8,444$626 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$626.05	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x701c…4615backed Yes	8c	8,411$651 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$651.19	64	17.2%11 W · 53 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	0c	8,000$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e60…9e3fbacked Yes	13c	7,976$1,003 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,002.95	37	21.6%8 W · 29 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	6c	7,731$455 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$454.83	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1488…e492backed Yes	4c	6,901$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$251.02	179	24.6%44 W · 135 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b69…16d4backed Yes	14c	6,152$857 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$857.44	223	27.8%62 W · 161 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	2c	6,033$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.49	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes	1c	6,030$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.58	25	12%3 W · 22 L	-2.6wins	-0.10per pick	22cpaid	-67.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	8c	5,987$493 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$493.04	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	2c	5,800$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.9	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	6c	5,316$319 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$319.03	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4081…cfb0backed Yes	1c	5,298$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.29	134	7.5%10 W · 124 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+27%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	10c	4,780$490 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$490	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8114…085abacked Yes	11c	4,185$469 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$468.54	127	14.2%18 W · 109 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9263…1999backed Yes	1c	4,148$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.42	98	1%1 W · 97 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	7c	4,000$261 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$261.5	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf529…4fc0backed Yes	12c	3,985$482 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$481.91	55	14.5%8 W · 47 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x360d…5e0fbacked Yes	19c	3,695$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.08per pick	25cpaid	+206.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd50a…0eb1backed Yes	7c	3,658$249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.02	33	18.2%6 W · 27 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	14cpaid	+53.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5300…d039backed Yes	4c	3,597$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	64	12.5%8 W · 56 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	7cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	5c	3,560$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.85	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fa6…4465backed Yes	7c	3,379$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231.57	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	7cpaid	+413.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7879…822abacked Yes	14c	3,223$447 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$447.47	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes	9c	3,100$276 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$276.14	69	13%9 W · 60 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x07ce…383bbacked Yes	0c	2,887$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.92	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x986e…88d7backed Yes	6c	2,876$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.58	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc11e…75c8backed Yes	7c	2,849$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.34	78	9%7 W · 71 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+40.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2a9…4cbdbacked Yes	15c	2,815$413 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$412.77	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x42f9…5d7abacked Yes	12c	2,800$338 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$337.51	96	20.8%20 W · 76 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfaba…d031backed Yes	7c	2,675$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	+383.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe572…6241backed Yes	10c	2,302$224 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$224.12	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-25%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa553…3eaebacked Yes	10c	2,300$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230	20	20%4 W · 16 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	14cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0234…62dabacked Yes	18c	2,256$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	4c	2,100$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac88…9b35backed Yes	7c	2,000$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	66	6.1%4 W · 62 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-49%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcfa6…da4fbacked Yes	10c	2,000$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33d4…c167backed Yes	7c	2,000$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142	177	23.2%41 W · 136 L	+7.2wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x547f…016dbacked Yes	4c	1,996$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.39	16	25%4 W · 12 L	+1.4wins	+0.09per pick	16cpaid	+96.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e5f…aaffbacked Yes	12c	1,989$239 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238.51	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes	5c	1,950$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.5	52	1.9%1 W · 51 L	-3.2wins	-0.06per pick	8cpaid	-80.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x03d0…d647backed Yes	2c	1,897$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.46	55	43.6%24 W · 31 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes	3c	1,840$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.86	53	11.3%6 W · 47 L	-3.5wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x01fe…79f4backed Yes	7c	1,829$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+30.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f22…f473backed Yes	5c	1,752$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.87	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-48.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd822…3127backed Yes	1c	1,750$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.45	89	24.7%22 W · 67 L	+4.9wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+25.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xea37…f7b1backed Yes	5c	1,714$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.17	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	+15.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x62d7…7e85backed Yes	9c	1,711$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.08	89	7.9%7 W · 82 L	-4.4wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	15c	1,693$252 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$252.27	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	12c	1,677$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.42	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8c6…5b8bbacked Yes	13c	1,659$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$217.88	112	21.4%24 W · 88 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ec…daabbacked Yes	6c	1,629$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.16	35	14.3%5 W · 30 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x442d…523ebacked Yes	8c	1,625$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.5	20	0%0 W · 20 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e8a…1ef2backed Yes	3c	1,600$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.6	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x20f2…a981backed Yes	13c	1,539$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.07	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+34.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	5c	1,521$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.44	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes	11c	1,518$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.17	35	28.6%10 W · 25 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3103…ea70backed Yes	6c	1,518$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.67	139	26.6%37 W · 102 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes	8c	1,512$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.31	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	9c	1,476$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	11c	1,457$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.19	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbed7…c0cfbacked Yes	10c	1,449$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+1.1wins	+0.18per pick	15cpaid	+106.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc52c…6732backed Yes	7c	1,421$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	39	5.1%2 W · 37 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	8c	1,354$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d5f…b380backed Yes	12c	1,330$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.24	430	27%116 W · 314 L	+7.1wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e6…fb8ebacked Yes	10c	1,258$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	17cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	4c	1,235$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.46	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes	5c	1,216$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.32	26	0%0 W · 26 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes	7c	1,210$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.76	344	27%93 W · 251 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	8c	1,200$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.6	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	9c	1,199$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.26	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x790e…989bbacked Yes	2c	1,185$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.38	67	22.4%15 W · 52 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	25cpaid	-3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66a1…c2f2backed Yes	2c	1,156$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	118	11%13 W · 105 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93d7…7423backed Yes	18c	1,153$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$208.81	40	10%4 W · 36 L	-4.4wins	-0.11per pick	21cpaid	-62.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	7c	1,139$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.49	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x863a…1161backed Yes	6c	1,129$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.58	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	29cpaid	+113.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x4789…8ff5backed Yes	12c	1,120$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-1.5wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa40a…0615backed Yes	13c	1,120$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.98	50	18%9 W · 41 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51f0…5c1cbacked Yes	2c	1,118$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.12per pick	13cpaid	+33.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event