Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e764f4cf42745c6d1523a8c6c33797286884d61df708596723a56fa3e5442b8

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 5, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,054,147
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $472,873

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,054,147 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	197,250$539 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$538.65	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	185,911$1,035 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,034.86	1,799	7.4%133 W · 1,666 L	-24.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	0c	98,000$430 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$430	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes	0c	27,881$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.98	241	1.7%4 W · 237 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+672.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	1c	12,551$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.6	508	19.1%97 W · 411 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	11,293$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.5	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	8,784$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.13	2,181	3.9%85 W · 2,096 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	0c	7,931$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.76	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3f52…e7d7backed Yes	5c	7,500$405 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$405	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.09per pick	16cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ec…daabbacked Yes	0c	6,123$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.68	35	14.3%5 W · 30 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc392…511bbacked Yes	0c	5,226$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.45	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.24per pick	9cpaid	+23.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes	1c	5,119$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.07	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	0c	5,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	456	11.6%53 W · 403 L	+8.1wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fa6…4465backed Yes	2c	4,960$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.94	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	7cpaid	+413.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	4,080$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.64	789	8.7%69 W · 720 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc52c…6732backed Yes	2c	4,071$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	39	5.1%2 W · 37 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	2c	3,812$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.92	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22b7…1e4abacked Yes	4c	3,692$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.75	44	13.6%6 W · 38 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62d7…7e85backed Yes	6c	2,996$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.19	89	7.9%7 W · 82 L	-4.4wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	0c	2,933$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.47	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	2,748$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.38	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1941…9ff3backed Yes	0c	2,279$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	55	12.7%7 W · 48 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01fe…79f4backed Yes	1c	2,179$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+30.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfda7…d2c0backed Yes	1c	2,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	1c	1,981$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.33	587	11.4%67 W · 520 L	+20.1wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x442d…523ebacked Yes	2c	1,668$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.68	20	0%0 W · 20 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d16…12d0backed Yes	5c	1,352$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.13	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3d3…bb8ebacked Yes	1c	1,250$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+23.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6af1…c00cbacked Yes	4c	1,237$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.53	29	3.4%1 W · 28 L	-3.5wins	-0.12per pick	15cpaid	-80.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x66a1…c2f2backed Yes	2c	1,101$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	118	11%13 W · 105 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98ce…5e1dbacked Yes	3c	1,053$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.2	89	9%8 W · 81 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84f9…5d85backed Yes	2c	1,050$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd42b…48c8backed Yes	3c	1,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.09	246	8.5%21 W · 225 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	2c	999.95$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.9	736	15.2%112 W · 624 L	+12.2wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	3c	999.32$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.15	187	9.1%17 W · 170 L	-6.1wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-76.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	6c	880.94$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.18	695	15.7%109 W · 586 L	-17.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes	6c	746.56$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.4	344	27%93 W · 251 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc11e…75c8backed Yes	6c	726.11$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.38	78	9%7 W · 71 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+40.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7b4…6f14backed Yes	3c	715.95$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	51	13.7%7 W · 44 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f6e…db0bbacked Yes	7c	640.67$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.97	36	22.2%8 W · 28 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x36d9…7a9ebacked Yes	2c	599.21$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.1wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes	4c	586.52$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.8	79	30.4%24 W · 55 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbe3…bd1dbacked Yes	6c	549.99$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.45	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	+9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	5c	429.24$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93d7…7423backed Yes	5c	392.8$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	40	10%4 W · 36 L	-4.4wins	-0.11per pick	21cpaid	-62.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2e9c…c3a9backed Yes	6c	352.1$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa71…1bcbbacked Yes	6c	292.58$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.84	33	18.2%6 W · 27 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x045e…7515backed Yes	6c	232.99$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event