TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

Will the fight be won by submission?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$108,672
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$107,844

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $108,672 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 208 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3cda…6e17backed No60c59,571$35,863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,708.052060%12 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa7ee…4e39backed Yes40c44,761$18,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,058.71250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85d9…717bbacked No58c11,179$6,488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,691.413158.1%18 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2c3…6ec8backed Yes41c10,952$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,500633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick38cpaid+1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked No58c9,119$5,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,830.081844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed No55c4,524$2,473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,050.2542042.6%179 W · 241 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd34b…0004backed No57c4,461$2,562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,898.6111761.5%72 W · 45 L+7.9wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7784…5b6dbacked No61c2,965$1,814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,151.61752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Yes37c2,826$1,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,045.4526743.8%117 W · 150 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1bc…9dc9backed Yes40c2,500$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick61cpaid-55%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x73d0…ec83backed Yes41c2,259$925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$925450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-31.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8efe…7b44backed Yes45c2,222$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf532…70eabacked Yes41c1,883$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$770425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-66.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes38c1,832$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$693.53938.5%15 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf802…d91dbacked No57c1,400$797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602.487256.9%41 W · 31 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd49…d059backed Yes40c1,250$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed Yes46c1,063$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4895843.1%25 W · 33 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1375…4c69backed Yes42c1,013$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.67040%28 W · 42 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e1a…9732backed Yes40c1,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-48.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked No60c989.83$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.5723850.4%120 W · 118 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a55…394ebacked No59c812.9$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.835653.6%30 W · 26 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x103d…b4a9backed Yes42c789.5$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.8wins-0.35per pick47cpaid-83.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x91fd…e4c8backed Yes40c780.6$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.2440%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x76ed…fa48backed No57c748.84$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32211140.5%45 W · 66 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c9c…e006backed Yes42c733.55$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.092263.6%14 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick67cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x797d…034fbacked Yes39c650.46$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.33333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-55%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8903…63c8backed No59c649.99$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.492860.7%17 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x013b…01cfbacked Yes45c620.57$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.52812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.31per pick43cpaid-73.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x26cf…c612backed No62c589.99$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.7390553.6%485 W · 420 L+46.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb34…59eabacked Yes36c567.29$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.2213044.6%58 W · 72 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe94b…5abebacked Yes36c530$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.83033.3%10 W · 20 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-33.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3665…0212backed Yes46c510.3$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.74955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ce1…227bbacked Yes40c500.65$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20050%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe78e…55f0backed Yes40c500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d5a…1427backed Yes40c500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x83ce…1778backed Yes40c500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2007233.3%24 W · 48 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbaa4…3ba0backed Yes43c482.6$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.33825%2 W · 6 L-2.7wins-0.33per pick58cpaid-59%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf626…5a89backed Yes42c482$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04a7…c0dfbacked Yes44c454.55$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68fe…8792backed Yes40c446.67$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.172642.3%11 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid+6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf397…e1dabacked Yes38c441.17$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.231030%3 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick52cpaid-45%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes39c423.68$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-32.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x959a…7478backed Yes42c414.71$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdbd…abf4backed Yes39c410.26$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6136…f535backed Yes36c400$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1421315.4%2 W · 11 L-4.1wins-0.31per pick47cpaid-64.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x92d4…1e62backed Yes46c374.13$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-52.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5eb5…4df5backed Yes38c343$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.34250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x408e…6cddbacked Yes40c315.8$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee44…0082backed Yes36c277.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004544.4%20 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2c8…770dbacked Yes37c270.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd538…317cbacked Yes38c263.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100650%3 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+115.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcc5a…828bbacked Yes38c263.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f16…0246backed Yes46c251.73$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1151040%4 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-36.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3e2…1fdcbacked Yes40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-36.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf5d…70e1backed Yes40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4a1…4799backed Yes40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc92d…2339backed Yes43c247.37$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.4930%0 W · 3 L-1.9wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3c66…79c7backed Yes40c246.18$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.47742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid+35.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6228…3c51backed Yes39c246.15$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes23c245.23$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.4511154.1%60 W · 51 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2123…8d70backed Yes42c238.45$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.1516543.6%72 W · 93 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x70ae…31bcbacked Yes38c234.21$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+28.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1893…f269backed Yes40c230.15$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb967…65edbacked No65c230$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.4366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x380c…1099backed Yes44c227.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+14.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f32…1532backed Yes45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid+24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7e9…ee46backed Yes45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010650.9%54 W · 52 L+0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c38…ab4fbacked Yes40c218.53$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbbde…a050backed Yes46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9714…3014backed Yes38c200$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-27.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09da…6dffbacked Yes40c200$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+15.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x61e1…adf1backed Yes43c200$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8630%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c23…0266backed Yes38c200$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7630%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x933c…a8c6backed No53c199.56$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.891080%8 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+34.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x216f…9b1ebacked No63c191$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.67666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+35.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe3c…a835backed Yes38c187.35$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.45250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-33.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Yes38c187.03$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7115556.8%88 W · 67 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x54f5…9093backed Yes40c176.32$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703240.6%13 W · 19 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-26.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b63…27a7backed No58c172.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.412100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+53.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe86…ec62backed Yes42c166.67$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708354.2%45 W · 38 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fe9…9c50backed Yes40c161.28$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.517671.1%54 W · 22 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3394…4defbacked Yes45c155.56$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37dd…bf14backed Yes67c149.54$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100875%6 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+113.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7709…c73abacked Yes40c145.75$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.3633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-48.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes38c140.94$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.0719418.6%36 W · 158 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaaee…7a60backed Yes40c138.59$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2762…d65abacked Yes42c138.1$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1da…94c8backed Yes38c131.58$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick43cpaid+64%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa668…f0f1backed Yes38c131.58$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f6b…fa75backed Yes46c130.43$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb47…e10bbacked Yes39c128.22$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-32.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf4ae…6bc8backed Yes40c125$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+15.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29b1…b14ebacked Yes40c125$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb3b…c8b7backed Yes40c125$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc26…6cd5backed Yes41c121.95$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick37cpaid-59.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe513…7eebbacked Yes46c121.02$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.671127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.8wins-0.25per pick52cpaid-42.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf4b7…7a38backed Yes50c120$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+44.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfaa0…441abacked Yes40c120$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481250%6 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae25…94bbbacked Yes42c119.05$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503638.9%14 W · 22 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88d5…5ae1backed Yes42c119.05$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.