UFC · resolved market
Maddalena Parlay - Maddalena Wins by KO, TKO, or DQ & Over 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x871e1fdacb36bc6db5de32f65ea1c5c98ca03059545ac5b479f7b14057c2a1b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,859
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,142
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,859 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcdb7…75f2backed Yes | 19c | 1,300$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.8 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…a33fbacked Yes | 17c | 1,177$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71ed…46dbbacked No | 80c | 821.3$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed No | 79c | 794.07$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.46 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 15c | 700$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Yes | 17c | 555$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee0…d808backed Yes | 12c | 425.6$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b6…2d92backed Yes | 12c | 418.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 92 | 41.3%38 W · 54 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4e…2c1fbacked Yes | 15c | 411.71$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked Yes | 13c | 366.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.71 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 18c | 351.97$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.16 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba6…8b23backed Yes | 12c | 271.87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x929c…8cb6backed Yes | 14c | 250$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 111 | 52.3%58 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…7027backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3f…a4fdbacked Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…94abbacked Yes | 13c | 179.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Yes | 22c | 173.15$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 130 | 41.5%54 W · 76 L | -9.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…e42abacked Yes | 13c | 160$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6410…d111backed Yes | 16c | 157.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0682…fd43backed Yes | 19c | 132$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cd…161fbacked Yes | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c50…8b7abacked Yes | 15c | 128$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…14f3backed No | 79c | 126.12$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd96b…46dfbacked Yes | 18c | 110$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x871a…1451backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9b…d771backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcf…1bdebacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…4323backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 15c | 84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed Yes | 19c | 63.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7707…4fcbbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.6wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Maddalena Parlay - Maddalena Wins by KO, TKO, or DQ & Over 1.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- Makhachev Parlay - Islam Wins Submission & Fight Lasts Over 2.5 RoundsNo won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 4.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)Makhachev won
- Will Islam Makhachev win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Jack Della Maddalena win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.