UFC · resolved market
O/U 2.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x912c4faec878b5f60cd0347a74807c3b10b2f627fd308547e8219f87f7e963bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,945
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,426
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,945 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcdb7…75f2backed Over | 66c | 3,000$1,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed Under | 34c | 2,971$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Over | 62c | 2,439$1,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$926.88 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 38c | 2,000$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4d…6055backed Under | 38c | 970$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.6 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa925…e1c8backed Over | 70c | 756.38$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.38 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Under | 30c | 600$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7019…dcefbacked Over | 67c | 408.96$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.96 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed Under | 31c | 176.27$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.85 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked Under | 32c | 175.38$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.12 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0987…6046backed Under | 34c | 163$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe91f…a9aebacked Under | 34c | 156$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa29d…fbc0backed Under | 34c | 153$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…401cbacked Over | 66c | 151$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…5efcbacked Under | 34c | 151$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cb…842fbacked Under | 34c | 150$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4c…80edbacked Over | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac56…fe60backed Over | 66c | 144$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…5a9abacked Over | 66c | 143$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4813…5d7dbacked Over | 66c | 143$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5072…c02abacked Over | 66c | 142$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2336…a7bbbacked Under | 34c | 137$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa405…fa4bbacked Under | 34c | 137$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0c…213abacked Over | 66c | 128$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…376cbacked Over | 77c | 125$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4c…1d5dbacked Over | 66c | 122$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Under | 32c | 98.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12c4…ff8cbacked Under | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd185…f969backed Over | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Under | 32c | 55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63dd…c279backed Over | 68c | 54.41$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb2…55a7backed Over | 62c | 53.23$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Over | 66c | 46.77$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc9…843fbacked Over | 67c | 46.67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…af22backed Over | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf667…6319backed Over | 67c | 41.92$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb967…65edbacked Under | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Over | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Under | 35c | 36.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f40…3428backed Over | 67c | 31.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 66c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf57…053bbacked Over | 60c | 30.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bdf…d2f3backed Over | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x008d…6958backed Over | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6e…6a74backed Over | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Over | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a5…a5f9backed Over | 72c | 22.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 2.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- Maddalena Parlay - Maddalena Wins by KO, TKO, or DQ & Over 1.5 RoundsNo won
- Makhachev Parlay - Islam Wins Submission & Fight Lasts Over 2.5 RoundsNo won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 4.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)Makhachev won
- Will Islam Makhachev win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Jack Della Maddalena win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.