UFC · resolved market
O/U 4.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56fb657b0fee6087c349b1f1dbef617444908ecacae0bcbfa617e548fae28771
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,746
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,868
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,746 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 42c | 1,878$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,093.11 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4d…6055backed Under | 58c | 1,224$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Under | 59c | 847.46$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked Over | 41c | 846.7$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.55 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb7…75f2backed Over | 44c | 618.82$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.54 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Over | 42c | 427.93$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.2 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…5e22backed Under | 54c | 344$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.76 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x013b…01cfbacked Under | 59c | 304.22$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.49 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 43cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1375…4c69backed Under | 58c | 287.33$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.65 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ead…cf47backed Under | 58c | 275.86$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed Over | 37c | 199.69$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.04 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed Under | 57c | 194.36$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.79 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9061…9510backed Under | 54c | 185$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4c…40c1backed Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b6c…98babacked Under | 63c | 157.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…9195backed Under | 66c | 150.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb67d…69f5backed Under | 56c | 150$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Under | 56c | 140$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Under | 54c | 135$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5956…e127backed Over | 44c | 130$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…57ebbacked Under | 54c | 128$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Under | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e78…fcb4backed Over | 46c | 96$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x965a…a0c9backed Under | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x063c…d642backed Over | 46c | 83$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51bd…bc56backed Over | 46c | 83$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +50%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c6…72a8backed Under | 58c | 81.03$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd84f…0475backed Over | 46c | 78$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5266…ddaebacked Over | 46c | 76$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c4…ff8cbacked Under | 33c | 75.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…0bbfbacked Over | 67c | 75.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…2f86backed Over | 46c | 57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fec…8dc3backed Over | 46c | 52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 58cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +7.0wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +37%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…b6e8backed Over | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6e…148bbacked Over | 43c | 47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +47%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6393…dde9backed Over | 46c | 46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2877…dc5bbacked Over | 43c | 45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc38…e7c2backed Under | 59c | 44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff0…f5babacked Under | 58c | 41.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47d3…4255backed Under | 58c | 40.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede6…89c4backed Over | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3add…e482backed Over | 46c | 37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62e6…f251backed Over | 46c | 37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe9…a400backed Over | 46c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Over | 39c | 32.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae69…0c24backed Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8211…8981backed Under | 59c | 28.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x102f…9b6ebacked Under | 54c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 4.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- Maddalena Parlay - Maddalena Wins by KO, TKO, or DQ & Over 1.5 RoundsNo won
- Makhachev Parlay - Islam Wins Submission & Fight Lasts Over 2.5 RoundsNo won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)Makhachev won
- Will Islam Makhachev win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Jack Della Maddalena win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.