TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

Makhachev Parlay - Islam Wins Submission & Fight Lasts Over 2.5 Rounds

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$81,667
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$83,026

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,667 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3a55…394ebacked No77c15,443$11,904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,539.295653.6%30 W · 26 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xad10…c665backed Yes22c8,137$1,813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,813.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd49…d059backed Yes19c5,205$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x73d0…ec83backed Yes21c4,373$928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$927.81450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-31.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9034…f7dfbacked Yes19c3,500$658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6583225%8 W · 24 L-3.2wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-52.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe88b…98b8backed Yes16c3,126$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e1a…9732backed Yes16c2,533$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-48.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa925…e1c8backed Yes16c2,518$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+18.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6bdf…d2f3backed Yes23c2,203$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.1333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-50.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad85…688bbacked Yes29c1,725$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ecd…0787backed Yes23c1,332$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.25450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed No56c1,296$729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$567.0516955.6%94 W · 75 L+23.8wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+59.8%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x2836…c511backed No72c1,236$884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.723154.8%17 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ebb…061abacked Yes16c1,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bf6…22a9backed Yes43c949.99$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.49366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick62cpaid-7.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4d4f…950bbacked Yes21c915.94$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.64955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc534…b734backed No79c855.06$678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe94b…5abebacked Yes16c637.01$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.883033.3%10 W · 20 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-33.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc39a…0eacbacked Yes16c630$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Yes80c627.29$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5008058.8%47 W · 33 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b4e…2c1fbacked Yes46c517.02$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2401154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbaa3…4e0ebacked Yes20c502.81$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cee…7a95backed Yes20c501.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-56.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b3a…df40backed No67c501.61$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.75100%5 W · 0 L+2.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+130.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6eed…ef32backed Yes20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.36per pick53cpaid-49.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe931…138bbacked Yes16c450$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-43.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19a7…3ec1backed Yes26c380$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.6220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes27c332.63$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.435070%35 W · 15 L+5.4wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+31.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfc5f…eb0bbacked Yes15c322.58$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a2d…d45cbacked Yes20c307.15$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce7b…b13ebacked Yes17c300$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a5d…9ea3backed No80c300$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdcf…1bdebacked Yes15c300$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-72.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes17c280$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3219418.6%36 W · 158 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1375…4c69backed Yes23c263.28$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607040%28 W · 42 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c4e…f059backed Yes16c250.55$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-49.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70ae…31bcbacked Yes24c248.26$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+28.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e00…adf9backed Yes17c240$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca59…79ccbacked Yes20c224.9$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92d4…1e62backed Yes23c217.26$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-52.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb47f…d792backed Yes49c216$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.4366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed No77c200$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.6540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick63cpaid-46.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a3f…a4fdbacked Yes28c200$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33ef…c498backed Yes65c200$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd541…e652backed No79c200$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57ce…48fbbacked Yes28c180.75$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.83450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83ce…1778backed Yes41c180$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$737233.3%24 W · 48 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac1e…ea39backed Yes29c172.54$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5032431.8%103 W · 221 L-9.6wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd96b…46dfbacked Yes30c169$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.1720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c0a…291cbacked Yes16c156.25$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253056.7%17 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+14%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb17e…22bebacked No62c155$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.235100%5 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+59.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9945…1ef5backed Yes24c139.44$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.475020%10 W · 40 L-5.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-48.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7a53…4d81backed Yes21c135$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3652…fb9abacked No79c129$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.092100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb000…d219backed Yes22c128$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x810c…ea3fbacked Yes16c127.39$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77cf…4a81backed Yes16c126.1$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick32cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x591b…807cbacked Yes20c125.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x239a…76e5backed Yes20c125$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.38944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick24cpaid+47.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa04f…3618backed Yes16c125$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e4c…1d5dbacked Yes21c124$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.04366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+61.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68cd…9ea6backed Yes21c121$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6e2…e42abacked Yes17c120$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.16837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-48%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd713…a7d4backed Yes19c116.4$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+50.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85ee…10c4backed No78c116$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb332…c5aabacked No79c113$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x522f…dddbbacked Yes16c110.76$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.391060%6 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+21.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf36…94e8backed Yes75c110$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.5616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.3wins-0.38per pick54cpaid-66.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0476…f6a6backed Yes20c110$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+23.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b64…eaf4backed Yes23c109.8$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+60.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0eab…4176backed Yes23c109.17$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7707…4fcbbacked Yes31c108.95$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.732030%6 W · 14 L-4.6wins-0.23per pick53cpaid-53.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd0f7…2b92backed No79c108$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa4f…8921backed Yes16c101.91$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-55%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa221…7588backed Yes20c101.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201050%5 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+43.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca4c…2477backed Yes18c100.23$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.44633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.62147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick42cpaid-2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6149…8a58backed Yes21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217339.7%29 W · 44 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-22.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa047…f4c5backed Yes17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x698a…fe0dbacked Yes21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b84…ccf2backed Yes16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.71526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ae1…3584backed Yes21c97.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed No75c95.82$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.884953.1%26 W · 23 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x661e…81d6backed Yes16c94.94$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-32%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x12ff…f464backed Yes16c94.94$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151030%3 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-24.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x26cf…c612backed No72c91.25$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.3390553.6%485 W · 420 L+46.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0ff8…1479backed Yes19c90$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fec…3a81backed Yes21c86.8$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63e2…42d8backed Yes16c83.84$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67a7…1facbacked Yes29c72.01$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87e8…5e6ebacked Yes16c68.81$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick62cpaid+15.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc38…e7c2backed Yes16c68.75$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1112639.7%50 W · 76 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fe6…7e61backed Yes30c67.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-66.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes20c66.03$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9311154.1%60 W · 51 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8217…4936backed Yes16c62.94$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.014344.2%19 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-16.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc31d…98d7backed Yes16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+23%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7881…5c15backed Yes20c60$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25b9…3058backed No76c60$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+30.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc039…e2e0backed Yes22c57$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.541118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.24per pick42cpaid-69.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9044…6364backed Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.