UFC · resolved market
Will Jack Della Maddalena win by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4e8573c632cd348d76bfadf019782adcf32c800176000a5ef33e48233547d69
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,901
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,751
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,901 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked No | 79c | 999.99$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f32…1532backed Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed Yes | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked No | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1805…4571backed Yes | 21c | 471.43$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x797d…034fbacked Yes | 21c | 469.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed No | 78c | 426.81$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.9 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e9…ee46backed Yes | 27c | 367$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 106 | 50.9%54 W · 52 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Yes | 17c | 312.22$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.2 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Yes | 18c | 296.18$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.09 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6da…7e3ebacked Yes | 21c | 267.45$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.34 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 38cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5908…cbc1backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76ed…fa48backed Yes | 16c | 239.01$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.65 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 16c | 199.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc735…fb96backed Yes | 21c | 152.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd11f…48a6backed Yes | 21c | 152.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd02c…769fbacked Yes | 17c | 151$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…0b63backed Yes | 17c | 147.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cd…161fbacked Yes | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d9…717bbacked No | 80c | 144.24$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed No | 73c | 120$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0867…706bbacked Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 73c | 110.21$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.11 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbd…abf4backed Yes | 21c | 104.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf57…053bbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3db9…3d33backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x659d…a037backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5369…aac5backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Yes | 16c | 97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddf0…0d2abacked Yes | 19c | 92.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9981…2d71backed Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3021…badabacked Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 80c | 66.19$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6069…1581backed Yes | 18c | 63.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2c…2184backed Yes | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f82…3101backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc38…e7c2backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed No | 73c | 47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jack Della Maddalena win by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- Maddalena Parlay - Maddalena Wins by KO, TKO, or DQ & Over 1.5 RoundsNo won
- Makhachev Parlay - Islam Wins Submission & Fight Lasts Over 2.5 RoundsNo won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 4.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)Makhachev won
- Will Islam Makhachev win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.