UFC · resolved market
O/U 3.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f74ad84ef93de05dcb38055babd3882358cee32be17c0d615fb876af4d36a02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,793
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,948
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,793 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01ba…b77abacked Under | 50c | 13,016$6,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,461.87 | 222 | 59.5%132 W · 90 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 50c | 10,000$5,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,975 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Over | 50c | 4,547$2,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,251.66 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 46c | 3,999$1,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,839.72 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa925…e1c8backed Over | 54c | 3,602$1,945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,656.85 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd33…c006backed Over | 51c | 3,110$1,599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,510.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Over | 53c | 3,000$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4d…6055backed Under | 51c | 1,469$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.64 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Under | 12c | 1,284$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.04 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +272.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5c…8ae8backed Over | 55c | 1,084$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Over | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5032…d300backed Over | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6a…f116backed Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed Under | 54c | 932.98$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Under | 47c | 853.19$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401 | 171 | 58.5%100 W · 71 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc46…c7c5backed Over | 57c | 653.35$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.94 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…1427backed Under | 48c | 482.82$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 45c | 455.7$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.63 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Over | 51c | 413.73$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.73 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb90…1917backed Over | 50c | 369.27$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.64 | 115 | 40.9%47 W · 68 L | -10.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…e803backed Over | 53c | 286.81$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2e…5899backed Over | 53c | 240$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Over | 52c | 220$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.6 | 248 | 47.2%117 W · 131 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked Under | 43c | 214.14$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.08 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe09a…6679backed Under | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6d…3779backed Under | 47c | 208.7$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe206…b9f3backed Under | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd3…c3a1backed Under | 48c | 193.29$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.78 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 51c | 164.4$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.81 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Over | 52c | 163.64$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.09 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed Under | 45c | 163$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.35 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c4…ff8cbacked Under | 41c | 142.5$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf060…b07abacked Over | 54c | 133.07$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.21 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +74%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc38…e7c2backed Under | 51c | 125.04$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.2 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5993…33a2backed Over | 54c | 120$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf00…33a7backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ce…48fbbacked Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Under | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 167 | 36.5%61 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Over | 50c | 93.75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.08 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Under | 50c | 93.75$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.08 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…9b1ebacked Under | 46c | 75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…aeb8backed Over | 55c | 75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63dd…c279backed Over | 55c | 65.68$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Under | 45c | 65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…0672backed Under | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Under | 45c | 56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6e…6a74backed Over | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Over | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6966…409bbacked Over | 55c | 49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2342…d7cebacked Over | 55c | 48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Under | 47c | 46.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 246 | 49.6%122 W · 124 L | +14.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x663d…cf72backed Under | 49c | 41.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9d…4ad7backed Over | 51c | 40.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf82…2f6dbacked Over | 56c | 39.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b40…93f4backed Over | 55c | 39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc757…f18cbacked Over | 53c | 37.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed Over | 51c | 37.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 87 | 59.8%52 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…9786backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…a188backed Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2579…d6cbbacked Over | 55c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d9…717bbacked Over | 51c | 34.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…668abacked Over | 54c | 34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x102f…9b6ebacked Under | 45c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8211…8981backed Under | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc49c…6dcabacked Under | 45c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e48…c958backed Over | 55c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf45…c508backed Over | 54c | 22.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…7fd0backed Over | 54c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 58 | 67.2%39 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5192backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fec…8dc3backed Over | 55c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 58cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 3.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- Maddalena Parlay - Maddalena Wins by KO, TKO, or DQ & Over 1.5 RoundsNo won
- Makhachev Parlay - Islam Wins Submission & Fight Lasts Over 2.5 RoundsNo won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 4.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)Makhachev won
- Will Islam Makhachev win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Jack Della Maddalena win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.